National Results Thread

So the majority of the contributors at DL will be at the Queen tonight celebrating the reelections of the President, Vice President, Governor Markell, and Lt. Governor Denn, among others. So I don't know if we will be able to update the blog as often as we would like to. So post whatever you are hearing here, whether it has to with national results. There will be another thread for Delaware results. And can I say, thank God this is over!!!

Election Day Afternoon Open Thread [11.6.12]

We are going to know pretty early how the night is going. If we have early calls for Ohio and Pennsylvania around the 8 pm hour, then it is Obama's night. If North Carolina gets called early for Romney, while PA and OH are not, it will be nail biter.

Mitt even votes like an asshole.

NPR is reporting that voters in Belmont, Massachusetts were asked to leave the voting line so Mittens can vote without rubbing elbows with the riffraff. Meanwhile, Vice President Joe Biden stood in line with regular folks to cast his ballot at his polling place.

Your Turn

What are your predictions, nationally and locally? I've made my predictions over the last several days on the Presidency, the new Congress, our statewide and New Castle County races, and all 62 races in the State House of Representatives and State Senate. Make your predictions here in the comments, and in doing so, feel free to use the 270towin electoral college predictor map. And if you are so inclined, tell us how you are voting today. If you don't want to, no pressure, you don't have to. We have a secret ballot in this country. But if you want to let the rest of us in on the secret, please go ahead.

The Final Polling Report, and my Final Prediction for the Presidency

So, here we are. Election. The ultimate polling report. The only poll that matters. Well, we got some more polls yesterday to report to you, including 18 national polls, and nearly twice as many state polls. Before we get to the numbers and the map and my prediction of the final outcome, here are some great guides about the swing states, including past results, final polling averages and poll closing times: Harry Enten and the Economist. The average of all the following final national polls is Obama 48.94, Romney 47.11, or a 1.83 point lead for the President. The national polls have clearly moved in the President's direction over the past week and during the final weekend, and I think, with the undecideds either splitting evenly or, as some polls like the NBC/Wall Street Journal Marist poll shows, towards the President, then we could be looking at a 4-5 point margin in the popular vote. Something along the lines of O 51, R 47. And here is our final poll projection map. And come inside to see my final prediction, which is a little different from the final poll projection map.

The Final Senate Projections

So, the polling shows that the Dems will pick up Maine (assuming Independent Angus King caucuses with the Dems), Massachusetts and Indiana. The Republicans are likely, based on recent polling, to pick up Montana, North Dakota and Nebraska. If the polling is correct, then the Senate will stay the same, with 53 Democrats and Independents to 47 Republicans. It is quite possible, even probable, that the Dems will retain their seats in Montana and North Dakota. Both races are very close. If that happens, the Dems will increase their majority to either 54 or 55 seats. Those are the projections. Here is my prediction: I think Jon Tester wins in Montana, and I agree with the rest of the polling, so I predict that the Dems pick up 1 seat, and the new Senate will be 54-46. As for the House, that is harder to predict or project. The Democrats currently have 193 seats, and the GOP has the majority with 242 seats. With 435 seats in the House, the Dems will need to get to 218 to have a majority, a net gain of 25 seats. Can they do it?

Monday Open Thread [11.5.12]

"The [latest NBC/Wall Street Journal Marist] survey found that 9% of the likely voters are up for grabs (meaning they're undecided or just leaning to a candidate), and these folks have more positive feelings toward Obama than Romney. Obama's job approval with them is 48% approve, 41% disapprove. What's more, Obama's fav/unfav with them is 46%/29%, vs. Romney's upside down 22%-49%. Bottom line: Our pollsters see more of an opportunity for Obama among these voters and more of an uphill climb for Romney."

The Penultimate Polling Report [11.5.12]

Recent national polls show that independents are moving back to the President. A Zogby poll finds Obama has picked up five points among independents, while the latest national Public Policy Polling tracking poll shows Obama turning a longtime disadvantage with independents into a 49% to 44% advantage. Furthermore, a new national ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll shows Obama and Romney deadlocked with independents, at 46% each, matching Obama's best showing among that group in that survey and coming after Romney had reached a high of 58% just a week and a half earlier. Finally, the Politico/GWU tracking poll finds the two men essentially tied with independents just a week after Romney held a double-digit lead with them. Here is our map based on all the most recent polls below. As you can see, Colorado has moved back to the Obama column, and Florida back to the Romney column. Those two swing states have been the swingiest all campaign. I think Obama has the edge in Colorado and Romney, due to the illegal and immoral actions of the fascist Governor Rick Skeletor Scott, has the edge in Florida. Personally, I actually think Obama is going to win North Carolina due to the early voting lead he has, while Florida remains a true toss up. Indeed, the polling average of all the polls in Florida released yesterday show 48.89 for Romney and 48.22 for Obama. It doesn't get much closer than that.