Delaware Dem's Latest Posts
Sunday Open Thread [11.4.12]
“Folks I want to remind you, this is the end of daylight savings time tonight. It’s Mitt Romney’s favorite time of the year because he gets to turn the clock back.”– Delaware’s own Vice President Joe Biden, quoted by the New York Times, at a rally in Colorado.
The Final Predictions III: The Delaware House
Onto the House. The Dems currently have a 26-15 member advantage over the Republicans. In the House, you need 21 seats for a majority. To win back control of the chamber, the GOP would need to win 6 seats while defending all of theirs. As you can see above, 15 Democrats are either unopposed or face nominal third party opposition, and thus are all virtual locks for reelection. So the Democrats are already 6 seats away from maintaining control of the chamber without even breaking a sweat. 5 Republicans are similarly unopposed or nominally opposed by third parties, so the current standing is 15 Democrats, 5 Republicans.
Then we move to our contested column, and again these are races where both main parties have fielded candidates, but the incumbent or the incumbent party is heavily favored to win, whether the factors be the quality of the challengers or the incumbents and the demographics of the district.
The Final Predictions II: The Delaware Senate
Above you will see all my predictions for the 21 Senate races to be decided this Tuesday. Nine races are basically decided. Six Senators are unopposed completely: Senators Margaret Rose Henry, Bob Marshall, Dave McBride, Karen Peterson, Bethany Hall Long, and Brian Bushweller. Senators Colin Bonini, Harris McDowell, and Patti Blevins only have third party opposition, and all three will win easily. So we are already at 8 Democrats, and 1 Republican. 11 seats are needed for a majority. For the Dems, that means three to go.
The Polling Report [11.4.12]
![The Polling Report [11.4.12]](http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7264/8152573711_19a947193a_z.jpg "The Polling Report [11.4.12]")
Team Romney is already offering excuses for their upcoming loss on Tuesday. And some campaign insiders are in full CYA mode in speaking on the record to Politico saying that Romney’s first choice for Vice President was Chris Christie, rather than Paul Ryan. I suppose they could also be trying to latch onto Christie’s recent bipartisan and excellent performance during the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy, but instead it looks like a tell tale sign of campaign already in the post mortem mode.
Campaign sources concede superstorm Sandy stalled Romney’s momentum. For eight straight days, polls showed him picking up support. The campaign’s internal polling, which is using different turnout models than most public polls, had him on solid ground in Florida, Virginia, North Carolina and Iowa. He had a slight lead or was tied in Ohio, New Hampshire and Wisconsin and was in striking distance in Pennsylvania, a state Republicans hadn’t won since Ronald Reagan in 1984. …
But then came something very big: a natural disaster that left a path of death and destruction on the East Coast. Suddenly, there was little talk about small things.
Yeah, I would like to see what the Romney campaign’s turnout model is. I suppose they are like most of the right wing and assume that a 2010 electorate will show up, rather than a presidential year electorate. What morons.
![Sunday Daily Delawhere [11.4.12]](http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8329/8131059089_25747acfb1_z.jpg "Sunday Daily Delawhere [11.4.12]")
The Final Predictions I: The Delaware Statewides
Over the course of the next three days, I will be doing several Final Prediction posts. First up, we will have the statewide races for Governor, Lt. Governor, U.S. Senator and U.S. Representative and Insurance Commissioner, with the New County County Executive and Council President races thrown in for good measure. Tomorrow I will cover the General Assembly, both the Delaware Senate and Delaware House. Monday, we will make our final predictions in the U.S. Senate races, and then finally on Tuesday morning, we will have our final polling report, with the final prediction as to who will win the Presidency. I will also, where applicable, let you know who I am voting for.
The only real question in the Statewide races is a question of margin. All the Democrats above will win, even though I will not be voting for all them.
The Polling Report [11.3.12]
![The Polling Report [11.3.12]](http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8326/8150146515_246344cb19_z.jpg "The Polling Report [11.3.12]")
We have two conflicting polls out of Florida. One has Obama leading 49-47. The other has Romney winning 51-45. That is a pretty wide disparity. One of the pollsters is wrong. Regardless, the average of the two gives Romney a slim 2 point lead, and so the state moves back to the pink zone. Meanwhile, Obama’s lead in Ohio is growing ever larger.
![Saturday Daily Delawhere [11.3.12]](http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8326/8131059181_35259456e0_z.jpg "Saturday Daily Delawhere [11.3.12]")
The Polling Report [11.2.12]
![The Polling Report [11.2.12]](http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8056/8147616669_07aab88499_z.jpg "The Polling Report [11.2.12]")
I think we are looking at our final map here, folks. Obama has come on in Florida, but it is still possible that Romney can win that state. In fact, I think Nate Silver gives the odds to Romney there. Meanwhile, it is also possible that Obama can win in North Carolina, but that is much less likely that Romney winning Florida.
Why am I so confident on Obama winning Florida, you ask? Yesterday, a Democratic operative sent the Tampa Bay Times some data on the early vote in Florida so far “to make the point that President Obama is crushing Mitt Romney when it comes to banking the votes of sporadic and infrequent voters before election day.”
“So far more than 3 million Floridians have cast a ballot by absentee, mail-in ballot or in-person early vote ballot. Democrats lead by more than 60,000 votes, but it’s the unlikely voter numbers that jump out: Of the nearly 414,000 Floridians who did not vote in the last three general elections, Democrats have an advantage of more than 53,000 votes. Of the more than 482,000 Floridians who have only voted in one of the last three general elections, Democrats lead by more than 77,000 — a total of more than 132,000.”
![Friday Daily Delawhere [11.2.12]](http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8324/8131085598_33153e6d7f_z.jpg "Friday Daily Delawhere [11.2.12]")
The Photo that Reelects Barack Obama?
According to the Wall Street Journal’s Jeff Yang, “[i]f enough people see it, this is the photo that singlehandedly re-elects Barack Obama.”
Guest Post from John Kowalko on proposed DP&L Rate Increases
In recent years I have voluntarily applied as an intervener in several cases involving DP&L rate increase requests filed before the Public Service Commission. The process itself is cumbersome and complex and requires resources and time that is not always available to me. Unfortunately the reality is that the public, the ratepayers’, and my constituents’ interests have been inadequately represented in many of these proceedings and my obligation and responsibility as an elected public servant is to ensure some semblance of fairness in the discussions and decisions rendered.
The most recent filing in which I have intervener status is identified as PSC Docket # 11-528 and involves a multi-pronged request for rate increases which includes but is not exclusive to recovery of depreciation values by Delmarva for obsolete meters that have been replaced with “smart-meters” for Delmarva residential customers. I have continuously and strongly objected to any ratepayer funding for new technology costs such as advanced metering purchase and installation since the provable economic benefit from these devices rests solely with the utility
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