Onto the House. The Dems currently have a 26-15 member advantage over the Republicans. In the House, you need 21 seats for a majority. To win back control of the chamber, the GOP would need to win 6 seats while defending all of theirs. As you can see above, 15 Democrats are either unopposed or face nominal third party opposition, and thus are all virtual locks for reelection. So the Democrats are already 6 seats away from maintaining control of the chamber without even breaking a sweat. 5 Republicans are similarly unopposed or nominally opposed by third parties, so the current standing is 15 Democrats, 5 Republicans.
Then we move to our contested column, and again these are races where both main parties have fielded candidates, but the incumbent or the incumbent party is heavily favored to win, whether the factors be the quality of the challengers or the incumbents and the demographics of the district.
Above you will see all my predictions for the 21 Senate races to be decided this Tuesday. Nine races are basically decided. Six Senators are unopposed completely: Senators Margaret Rose Henry, Bob Marshall, Dave McBride, Karen Peterson, Bethany Hall Long, and Brian Bushweller. Senators Colin Bonini, Harris McDowell, and Patti Blevins only have third party opposition, and all three will win easily. So we are already at 8 Democrats, and 1 Republican. 11 seats are needed for a majority. For the Dems, that means three to go.
Campaign sources concede superstorm Sandy stalled Romney's momentum. For eight straight days, polls showed him picking up support. The campaign's internal polling, which is using different turnout models than most public polls, had him on solid ground in Florida, Virginia, North Carolina and Iowa. He had a slight lead or was tied in Ohio, New Hampshire and Wisconsin and was in striking distance in Pennsylvania, a state Republicans hadn't won since Ronald Reagan in 1984. ... But then came something very big: a natural disaster that left a path of death and destruction on the East Coast. Suddenly, there was little talk about small things.Yeah, I would like to see what the Romney campaign's turnout model is. I suppose they are like most of the right wing and assume that a 2010 electorate will show up, rather than a presidential year electorate. What morons.
Over the course of the next three days, I will be doing several Final Prediction posts. First up, we will have the statewide races for Governor, Lt. Governor, U.S. Senator and U.S. Representative and Insurance Commissioner, with the New County County Executive and Council President races thrown in for good measure. Tomorrow I will cover the General Assembly, both the Delaware Senate and Delaware House. Monday, we will make our final predictions in the U.S. Senate races, and then finally on Tuesday morning, we will have our final polling report, with the final prediction as to who will win the Presidency. I will also, where applicable, let you know who I am voting for.
The only real question in the Statewide races is a question of margin. All the Democrats above will win, even though I will not be voting for all them.
"So far more than 3 million Floridians have cast a ballot by absentee, mail-in ballot or in-person early vote ballot. Democrats lead by more than 60,000 votes, but it's the unlikely voter numbers that jump out: Of the nearly 414,000 Floridians who did not vote in the last three general elections, Democrats have an advantage of more than 53,000 votes. Of the more than 482,000 Floridians who have only voted in one of the last three general elections, Democrats lead by more than 77,000 -- a total of more than 132,000."
