Delaware Dem

The Polling Report [8.24.12]

There was a lot of polling information this week, and there is more below, although today, it doesn’t change any state from red to blue or vice versa. This morning, I decided to focus on some internals of recent polls, and some forecast models. First, Charlie Cook said yesterday that, with the unemployment rate at 8% and with two thirds of the country thinking we are going in the wrong direction, then how in the hell is President Obama winning this election?

There is quite an easy answer, and I will let fellow GW alum John Sides explain.

Here’s the new Map, showing Missouri becoming a Strong Romney state, which is the only change from yesterday.

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It really is amazing….

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The Polling Report [8.23.12]

Just when things were looking good for Romney, or at least trending in his favor…..

President Obama has retaken leads in Wisconsin, Ohio, and Florida. And if you can believe it (I don’t), made Georgia a competitive three point race. Meanwhile, the President maintains slim leads in Nevada, and is running up the score in New Mexico and Vermont.

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The Ascendant Michael D. Protack

I had forgotten that Mike Protack was actually, once again, running for something. This year he is a Republican candidate for New Castle County Council President. This is a change in the trajectory of his political career. For before this year, he had been on a downward spiral in the office he was seeking in any given year. In 2004, he ran for Governor and lost in the Republican Primary. In 2006, he ran for the U.S. Senate and lost in the Republican Primary. In 2008, he ran again for Governor and lost at the Republican convention. In 2010, he finally lowered his sights and ran for something that even I thought he could win: a County Council seat. But he lost in the Republican Primary.

If he were to run again, I thought the next logical stop would have been Alderman or whatever similar office they have in Hockessin (or dogcatcher if they don’t). But to my surprise, Protack, ever the poker player, is upping the ante once again.

And this time, finally, at long last, after a long quioxitic journy, Michael D. Protack will be the nominee of the Republican Party for something.

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The Republican Convention: Hyprocrisy and God’s Wrath.

The Republican Convention is next week in Tampa, Florida. On Saturday and Sunday before the start of the convention, Tropical Storm (and perhaps by then, Hurricane) Isaac will be bearing down on the GOP’s convention hall. I want to discern the symbolism of this, somehow implying that God’s wrath is being evidenced by the coincendental events. Where is Pat Robertson when you really need him? I guess I will have to settle for Dana Milbank

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The Polling Report [8.22.12]

The big poll from yesterday was the new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, that found that, despite Mitt Romney’s choice of Rep. Paul Ryan as his running mate, the race remains unchanged. The poll found Obama leading Romney 48 to 44, but the more interesting result are that Obama leads by 22 points on the question about which candidate cares about average people. Further, the GOP’s favorability gap is -9 (36% favorable, 45% unfavorable) while the Dems are at +2 (42% favorable, 40% unfavorable). That’s not good for Republicans. These are the same numbers from prior wave years in 2006 and 2008.

Here is our new map, reflecting changes from new polls in Virginia and Wisconsin:

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