Delaware Dem

The Polling Report [6.27.12]

So I have swung back to Jason330’s line of thinking: frack Rasmussen and other Republican polls whose sole purpose for existing is to shape narrative rather than conduct scientific polls. They cannot ever be trusted. And if we are going to criticize people like Allen Loudell for trusting Rasmussen, then we cannot very well use their polls in our polling report. So Rasmussen and We Ask America are gone.

I have also decided to do away with the “Toss up” category. We have tons of new polls. Come inside to check them out and here is our new map:

Continue Reading »

Romney’s Bad Week Continues….

When he finally gathered enough courage to take a stand after 12 hours of ducking the press and having his flunkies sound like automotons refusing to budge from talking points, he announced that is experiencing what you humans call “disappointment.” He wants the Court to give more latitude, not less, to the states. The rest of his statements on the court’s ruling had to do with President Obama’s failure to pass an immigration reform law, even though an immigration reform law (the “Dream” Act) did actually receive majority votes in both chambers of Congresss before his own Republican Party filibustered it to death.

Immigration is a horrible issue for Romney. His party, if it is to remain a competitive national party rather than a racist whites only Southern party in the generation, must attract Hispanics. But if he dares changes any of hardline anti-immigration and anti-Hispanic policies so he can appear moderate in the general election and appealing to Hispanics, he risks depressing racist White turnout, which is the base of his party. And he needs Bushian 2004 intensity of the party base to win this election. Any depression of the GOP base turnout will doom him to a landslide loss.

Hence Romney’s cowardly hiding yesterday. Hence his mealy mouthed response expressing “disappointment.” Hence his Obama bashing.

Continue Reading »

The Polling Report [6.24.12]

Here are all the polls that have been released since our last polling report last Wednesday. As you can see, not much has changed. A close race nationally, save for that Bloomberg-Selzer poll that had the President winning in a landslide. Pew has Obama at 50, with a 4 point lead. Rasmussen, of course, has the mirror image, with Romney leading by 5 at 48%. The rest of the nationals are all 1 point leads or 2 point leads or outright ties.

In the states, Wisconsin flips back to Lean Obama, and Michigan flips back to being a toss up. Iowa and Florida remain toss ups, and Washington stays Strong Obama, Nebraska stays strong Romney, and Montana still leans Romney.

Continue Reading »