Posts by Delaware Dem

I touched on this last week, and it is a huge question heading into the GOP, and to a lesser extent, Democratic primaries. From the Washington Post:

“Trump’s unexpected and sustained popularity has, at least in part, been fueled by his appeal to a voting bloc that seems to be emerging: blue-collar workers without college degrees who are slightly younger than the traditional Republican voter. Many say they haven’t cared about politics until now, as they flock to Trump rallies like groupies to a rock concert, read his books, buy his products, quote his jokes and follow his social-media accounts.” “But is their devotion to Trump deep enough to vote? For those who don’t regularly vote in primaries, doing so for the first time is a hurdle — especially in Iowa, which uses a caucus system that can intimidate first-timers.”

A quote in the piece was symbolic of a large number of responses about the Trump voter's commitment to vote and caucus:

“We’re going to see ... With kids and grandkids and all this, it’s kind of hectic ... We’ll look into it. If our time is available, then yeah, maybe we’ll do it. Maybe. We’ll have to see,” said Randy Reynolds, a diehard Donald Trump supporter who’s just not sure if he’ll show up to vote. The Washington Post reports that many of Trump’s supporters, unsurprisingly, say the same thing.

I would not be surprised if Trump loses Iowa by a significant margin. He may not even finish in second place.

Peter Beinart says a new Liberal era is beginning? Beginning? It already begun. Back in 2006.

“That doesn’t mean the Republicans won’t retain strength in the nation’s statehouses and in Congress. It doesn’t mean a Republican won’t sooner or later claim the White House. It means that on domestic policy—foreign policy is following a different trajectory, as it often does—the terms of the national debate will continue tilting to the left. The next Democratic president will be more liberal than Barack Obama. The next Republican president will be more liberal than George W. Bush.” “In the late ’60s and ’70s, amid left-wing militancy and racial strife, a liberal era ended. Today, amid left-wing militancy and racial strife, a liberal era is only just beginning.”

Matt Yglesias:

In his classic study of the politics of the Jim Crow South, Southern Politics in State and Nation, V.O. Key observed that the politics of white supremacy was strongest and most salient precisely in the states and counties that had the fewest white people. In a state like Arkansas or Texas or Tennessee that has relatively few African Americans, there was little need for an explicit white supremacy politics to ensure that white people would, in fact, be supreme. These states, not coincidentally, generated some white politicians who were racially moderate by the standards of the time and place. In Mississippi or South Carolina, where the demographics looked different, by contrast, any hint of racial moderation would be deadly. The smaller white communities in those states were more politically vulnerable, and required a more vigorous politics of white supremacy to maintain their control. It's natural for a toned-down version of that to play out as the United States becomes a less white country. When whites were 80 or 90 percent of the population, they did not constitute a "demographic" that could be meaningfully mobilized around white identity — instead, splits within the white community (North versus South, Protestant versus Catholic) were highly salient. But as whites become less numerous, appealing to white voters as such becomes a more viable political strategy. Trump has surged to the top of the GOP pack by exploiting that opportunity with an unusual level of vigor and an unusual lack of subterfuge. But he's not the first politician to see the opportunity, and he certainly won't be the last. And Democrats who simply ignore the reality that people expressing concern about the changing demographic face of America are in fact concerned about the changing demographic face of America do so at their own peril.

David Frum on the great GOP revolt: “Something has changed in American politics since the Great Recession. The old slogans ring hollow. The insurgent candidates are less absurd, the orthodox candidates more vulnerable. The GOP donor elite planned a dynastic restoration in 2016. Instead, it triggered an internal class war.” “The puzzle for the monied leaders of the Republican Party is: What now? And what next after that? None of the options facing the GOP elite is entirely congenial. But there appear to be four paths the elite could follow, for this campaign season and beyond. They lead the party in very different directions.”