Author Archives: xstryker

About xstryker

X Stryker is also the proprietor of the currently-dormant poll analysis blog Election Inspection.

Napolitano for Homeland Security?

Politico reports that Arizona Governor Janet Napolitano (who is awesome) has been tapped to be the Secretary of Homeland Security.

Gosh, who could have predicted it? Oh, that’s right, me. Just like I predicted Eric Holder for Attorney General and Tom Daschle for Secretary of Health & Human Services. And my prediction of Gates at Defense is looking pretty good right now.

Unfortunately, it looks like Obama is probably going to go with Clinton instead of Richardson at State, but it’s also pretty clear that Richardson is the top runner up.

Who’s the bigger DINO? Carper or Lieberman?

Let’s take a side by side comparison:

Issue	Carper	Lieberman
Iraq	Voted for war, but recanted and supports timetables	Pushed for war, still supports it
Torture	For it	For it
Bankruptcy Bill	Sponsored it	Voted against it but also voted against filibustering it
Alito	Voted against him but also voted against filibustering him	Ditto, and now says he regrets voting against him at all
Telecom Immunity	For it	For it
Warrantless wiretapping	Against it in principle, but voted for bill expanding it	LOVES IT
Alberto Gonzalez	Against him	For him
CAFTA	For it	For it
Tort reform (anti-consumer, pro-corporate)	For it	For it
Cheney Energy Bill	Against it	For it
Abortion	NARAL Rating: 50%	100%
Gay Rights	HRC Rating: 67%	89%
Pro-corporation	CoC Rating: 70%	25%
Education	Against vouchers	For vouchers
Energy Independence	CAF Rating: 67%	100%
Environment	LCV rating: 89%	42%
Gun Registration	For it	Against it
1993 Clinton Health Care	Wasn’t in office	Against it
Presidential Endorsement	Obama	McCain

Clearly, they are both major DINOsaurs.

Good night

In case my summary of the economic mess we’re in below is giving you a bout of nervous insomnia, here is a music video to calm the nerves.

Corinne Bailey Rae – “Put Your Records On”

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wkEeNpWMvgk&feature=related[/youtube]

Sleep well!

A Fine Mess

The most frustrating aspect of living through the economic woes of the early 2000’s (aside from how badly it messed up my career path in Computer Science) was watching the limp, tepid response of the Bush Administration to it. The “voodoo economics” that had become passe by the time Bush Sr. was elected were back. The Bush tax cuts barely touched the middle class, and instead were driven towards millionaires and big businesses – and the millionaires were investing the money in big business, while the businesses were investing the money in factories and call centers in other countries. The war in Iraq, too, was of little assistance domestically; unlike World War 2, there was no draft to boost the demand for labor nor did the government repurpose idle factories for the war effort. The only useful tool employed by the government were interest rate cuts, which spurred consumer borrow-and-spend habits that drove up the demand for housing. OK, they extended unemployment benefits too, which is always a good idea during a recession, but that just softens the impact, it doesn’t stimulate growth. The other demand-side tool employed by the GOP was their prescription drug plan, which was a disaster of waste and inefficiency, wholly ill-equipped to deliver its benefits to its intended recipients.

Without any meaningful effort towards job creation, interest rate cuts were left to shoulder the burden all alone. Had a blended approach been taken, we’d have considerably more flexibility to use interest rates in treating the current economic flop. Instead, the utility of interest rate cuts was stretched to the breaking point; they provided a mild boost to the economy and mildly increased inflation; however, real wages remained stagnant. The effect was to basically give America a bigger credit card – people spend more but earned the same amount of money, a condition which benefits both big and small businesses in the short term but ultimately leads to a debt burden that chokes off further spending.

The truth is, none of this would have been enough to bring the economy out of the tank in the mid-2000’s if it weren’t for the Mortgage Snowball.

Low interest rates lead to more mortgage loans and home equity loans, and a favorable environment for subprime lenders.
This leads to more home-buying, home-building, and home improving.
This leads to rising home prices.
This leads to housing speculation, which pushes prices and profits up further.
This drives up the supply of mortgages for use in mortgage-backed securities.
Investment banks make a ton of money by carving up subprime mortgage-backed securities and calling the least risky portion (of a very risky porfolio) AAA safe. In other words, they lied to consumers, in the same manner of “light” cigarettes.
Alan Greenspan and the GOP champions of deregulation allow this to happen.
So do the independent ratings agencies, which are complicit in the scam.
Investment banks know they are selling crap, so they sell Credit Default Swaps on these subprime mortgage-backed securities so wise investors can profit when they inevitably fail. This doubles the amount of profit the banks have now, and doubles the amount they’re going to lose when the loans fail. They justify this suicidal route by assuming housing prices will rise forever and demand for mortgages will never ever abate. This is stupid, why do they do it? Likely because people act irrationally when they are making piles of money – they delude themselves into thinking the good times will never end.
Thanks to Phil Gramm and the Commodity Futures Modernization Act of 2000 (which also created the Enron loophole that worsened the first recession of the decade), Credit Default Swaps are unregulated, meaning that the investment banks don’t need to back them up with the assets necessary to pay on them when securities default. In fact, they can offer multiple swaps on the same security. Remember how we were just doubling both the current profit and the amount of liability? Multiply that by five.
Buckets o’ money – spend some on lobbyists to keep everything deregulated.
Inflation increases, and interest rates are increased to combat inflation.
High housing prices and high interest rates kill off the demand for new mortgages. And the riskiest subprime loans start going bad.
Supply and demand – housing prices fall. Speculators walk away from their souring investments, causing more mortgage loans to fail.
Ordinarily, this would require a minor correction. But these loans were being sold as AAA safe investments, which were then purchased by people needing safe investments (such as pension plans). The failure of these investments panics investors, causing the stock market to tank, hurting the economy at large.
Ordinarily, this would require a major, but fairly ordinary correction. But the investment banks have multiplied the exposure of these loans tenfold. Billions upon billions of dollars are lost to paying off Credit Default Swaps, and the investment banks weren’t required to have the capital to absorb the loss. Mortgage lenders fail, investment banks fail, and the banks have ruined their credit so badly that the interbank lending interest rates (LIBOR) skyrocket.
Banks don’t have money to lend, and no one wants to give them any. Consumers and businesses seeking loans from these banks are out of luck.
Consumer spending tanks. Businesses lay people off. The economy enters a recession.

Underlying this cycle is the fact the wages weren’t really growing in the first place, which means in real terms, we never really got out of the first recession. And so, the only way out of this mess is through good old-fashioned Keynesian governmental deficit spending – build bridges, roads, and trains, improve the social safety nets (single-payer healthcare), send more people to college.

Except that the Bush-Cheney Administration spent all our money in Iraq. And they compounded the amount they wasted in Iraq many times over through fraud and sheer incompetence (a subject I’ll have to return to another time). And so now we face an uncertain future – will our nation have enough money to jumpstart the economy?

Only time will tell – but I am glad we have a president-elect who listens, thinks, and persuades people to work together. We’re in for a rough ride.

What did we learn today?

Hey folks, your friendly neighborhood Stryker has joined the party here at Delaware Liberal. I intend to work the evening shifts, and with that in mind, let’s reflect on the day that was, November 16th, 2008.

1. Tom Noyes’ voice is so soothing, it deserves to be posted twice.

2. The Iraqi Cabinet sent their Parliament a resolution to have our troops out of Iraqi cities and towns by the end of June. Yes, June 2009 – but we can stay on the bases we’ve built until the end of 2011. This is a big green light for Obama to send most of those troops to Afghanistan to finish the job, and it effectively ends any argument the GOP could make against it.

3. Obama’s approval ratings: 59% (Rasmussen), 65% (Gallup). Bush’s disapproval rating is 65% according to Gallup, and for the full month of October, Rasmussen registers 64% disapproval. My favorite polling-related headline of the week is “75% of GOP Voters Fear Too Much Change“, which is as succinct a definition of conservatism as I’ve ever heard.

4. Elliot explains the PVI, which for Mike Castle is now D+7.

5. Washington Post Ombudsman Deborah Howell thinks that newspapers should institute affirmative action for Republicans. That’s right, she thinks the media should ask job interviewees what their political alignment is, and making hiring decisions based on this. Her reasoning is that WaPo is losing subscribers, and she thinks targeting Washington Times readers is the answer, despite the country’s recent jump to the left. Newspapers trying to be more conservative is as likely to work as Republicans trying to be more conservative – and just as short-sighted.

6. Dana covers DNREC’s laughable insistence that the metal dust covering the cars and windows of residents living near the Claymont Steel mill isn’t dangerous because it’s “too heavy to breathe.” Paging Jack Markell; you’re going to need to clean house at DNREC – literally.

7. The Eagles tied the Bengals. Yes, tied; they are so inept that they couldn’t produce a single score for the entirety of overtime. Against the Bengals. Let me say this again: AGAINST THE BENGALS. I mean, seriously? What is wrong with these guys? The Eagles offense is falling apart – does anyone have an excuse for them? Fire Andy Reid, please.

Final thought: Faced with utter failure, the RNC may be turning to former Maryland Lt. Governor Michael Steele, which would really one-up this Onion story.

Good night.

Joe Biden announces yet again

This time, it’s the AFP that is fooled into thinking this is news.

The money quote:

“I’m going to be Joe Biden and try to be the best Biden I can be,” the 64-year-old senator said. “If I can, I got a shot. If I can’t, I lose.”

I get it, Joe. This race is all about Joe Biden being Joe Biden. The Joe-Biden-est Joe Biden he’s ever been. If you like Joe Biden, then you are clearly Joe Biden’s target demographic. If you don’t like Joe Biden, then maybe he just needs to be Joe Biden-er so you can really see what Joe Biden is all about.

Which is Joe Biden.

Future Secretary of State Joe Biden?

Blossoming of a New Era

Today marks the official return of Democrats to the offices of Congressional leadership. It is a wonderful, glorious, jubilant day, on which my only regret is that we don’t have a Delaware Democrat in the House of Representatives to share it. I am joyful none the less, and I have confidence the 110th Congress will be proceed far more ethically than the 109th. The question, however, is “will it be ethical enough?”

My concerns (and yours, I’m sure) are addressed by the big “O” himself, Senator Barack Obama, in a Washington Post Op-Ed:

This past Election Day, the American people sent a clear message to Washington: Clean up your act.

Yes.

It would be a mistake, however, to conclude that this message was intended for only one party or politician. The votes hadn’t even been counted in November before we heard reports that corporations were already recruiting lobbyists with Democratic connections to carry their water in the next Congress.

Yes!

We must stop any and all practices that would lead a reasonable person to believe that a public servant has become indebted to a lobbyist. That means a full ban on gifts and meals. It means no free travel or subsidized travel on private jets. And it means closing the revolving door to ensure that Capitol Hill service — whether as a member of Congress or as a staffer — isn’t all about lining up a high-paying lobbying job. We should no longer tolerate a House committee chairman shepherding the Medicare prescription drug bill through Congress at the same time he’s negotiating for a job as the pharmaceutical industry’s top lobbyist.

Yes.

I have long proposed a nonpartisan, independent ethics commission that would act as the American people’s public watchdog over Congress. The commission would be staffed with former judges and former members of Congress from both parties, and it would allow any citizen to report possible ethics violations by lawmakers, staff members or lobbyists. Once a potential violation is reported, the commission would have the authority to conduct investigations, issue subpoenas, gather records, call witnesses, and provide a report to the Justice Department or the House and Senate ethics committees that — unlike current ethics committee reports — is available for all citizens to read.

YES!

Barack Obama for President, 2008. He gets it. He can do this. I pray that these proposals are made reality, so that they may serve as the inspiration for similar reforms in state legislatures around the country – especially right here in Delaware.

Update: At last, I can publish this myself! I now return you to your regularly scheduled Jason. It’s been an honor and a privilege to guest host all week, even though my posts were buried in the comments section. No matter – now they can finally be seen by those who don’t generally take the time to read blog comments. Final plug – for Obama blogging with a Delaware spin, visit me over at delaware4obama.

Atkins Roundup

If you haven’t been following the latest discussion of Rep. John “Booze ‘n Bruise” Atkins, here’s the trail for you to follow:

Mike Matthews brings new details to light:

After having an enjoyable night out at at a Halloween party (word has it that Rep. Atkins’ wife showed up in a police-officer-porn-star costume!) at that ultimate Ocean City den of debauchery — Seacrets — Atkins and his wife got in their vehicle and headed north to their home in Millsboro. Drunk, of course. Never mind that my sources tell me Atkins and his wife had already been fighting in the parking lot at Seacrets and required some security contact. Now they were pulled out of the parking lot. They were pulled over for speeding by the Ocean City Police Department and the hard copy of that report was made public by yours truly. Of course the story revolving around Atkins’ use of his state representative license plate and ID as a means to diffuse the situation is well documented. As the police report shows, Atkins claimed he would have two friends pick him and his wife up because he both of them were completely fucked up and unable to drive. Atkins blew a .14 and his wife a .16.

The two friends show up, Atkins and his wife get into the friend’s truck and the other friend drives their car. The story gets even better, though, because this lovable foursome then headed to another local bar — this time to the drunk’s paradise Smitty McGee’s.

But wait! There’s something missing here, that Mike deleted from the post. Dana Garrett saw it, though:

Later when Ocean City’s finest let the inebriated state representative off Scot free after he flashed his state legislator’s identity card and promised to get a

Delaware state trooper to drive him and Mrs. DV Victim home, it turned out that “home” meant by way of “the drunk’s paradise Smitty McGee’s — where,” according to two of Mike’s sources, “there was allegedly some quid pro quo activity on behalf of Atkins, his wife, and one of the drivers who picked them up as thanks for the kind act.”

We’re just talking about salacious rumors, here, but if you’re not getting the meaning of “quid pro quo” in this context, Mike gave us another innuendo in the comments section by way of a response to Dan Gaffney:

Dan Gaffney says:

From the police report:

“PFC Smith and I cleared the stop at 0142 hours”

From Smitty McGees:

“Open 364 days a year! 11am to 1am daily”

What’s next? Atkins went there, and it was closed?

Mike Matthews says:

Gaffney,

As a matter of fact I did edit something out. I had it up for about five minutes and decided to delete it. The Smitty McGee’s thing still goes, though. Notice I never said they entered the bar or that they drank. Never said it. Get from it what you want.

If the friends were driving them home anyway, why didn’t they wait until… you know what? I don’t care. The real story is the DWI, the spousal abuse, the coverup, and the attitude that the law doesn’t apply to elected officials. Still, if you do embarassing things in public, people are going to talk about it whether or not it constitutes a serious issue or a personal indiscretion.

FSP responds to an allegation in the comments section of Dana’s blog that Atkin’s wife got a cushy job through her husband:

However, an elected official proving he is a fallible human does not give a free pass to anonymous jackassery. Take, for instance, this commenter from Dana Garrett’s Delaware Watch, who claims that John Atkins got his wife a cushy job in the prison system, a job she allegedly holds under her maiden name. This is provably false, and this PDF proves it. It is one of Heather Atkins’ most recent pay stubs. It took a lot of convincing for the Atkins’ to give this up, but I got it. It shows the payee as Heather A. Atkins of Millsboro, the pay date of 12/22/06 and it also shows that she is a part-time (53 hours in two weeks) and an hourly employee. Now, if I’m John Atkins, and I want to get my wife a cushy job, I would make sure it was not hourly, and certainly not in the prison system. The more likely story (I don’t know since I didn’t ask) is that Heather Atkins applied for and got the entry-level job on her own merits, and perhaps may have used her maiden name at first so as to avoid the appearance of impropriety.

There is a lot of rumor unloading going on in this situation. This episode should convince you that none of it is true, and most of it is just political enemies sensing an opportunity to gang up on an elected official they’d rather see out of office.

Dana responds:

At one level of understanding, whether Ms. Atkins used her maiden name or not is irrelevant. Anytime a legislator uses his influence to get a family member a job in the state system is bad. It would be particularly egregious in Rep. Atkins’ case since he is the chairperson of the House Committee on Corrections. As the chair, Atkins has considerable power regarding legislation affecting the DDOC. The apparent conflict of interest in his wife working for the DDOC isn’t mitigated in the least by her applying for the position under her married name, maiden name or under, say, the name of a Disney character. Nor is the apparent conflict of interest mitigated by Ms. Atkins procuring the job “on her own merits, which Dave states, without explanation, is the “more likely story.” As long as the DDOC knows she is Rep. Atkins’ wife, they have a huge incentive to treat her differently.

The point of the maiden name “story” is that, if true, by using her maiden name to apply for the job, Rep. Atkins might have tried to conceal that he had procured a job for his wife at the DDOC or that his wife was working for a state agency which caused him to have an apparent conflict of interest. In my view, that is an example of trying to “avoid the appearance of impropriety” but not in the way Dave believes. That is trying to avoid the appearance of impropriety in a way analogous to the measures embezzlers take to conceal their thefts or shoplifters take to conceal stolen merchandise. Nearly every crook strives to avoid the appearance of impropriety. That’s why if Ms. Atkins used her maiden name while applying for the job, no one should feel consoled.

Seriously, Mr. and Mrs. Atkins, this isn’t a good time to be involved with Delaware’s prison system anyway.

What else is going on? Hube mentions this very blog:

Prediction: Jason at DE Liberal will still host Delaware’s version of the Democratic Underground.
Resolution: I resolve to call Jason out on that as much as possible.

OK, whatever. I can’t speak for Jason, but I don’t read DU – I visit DailyKos, MyDD, and Swing State Project, personally. So I guess Hube’s determination to compare delawareliberal to some other blog community doesn’t bother me.

In other news, Jack Markell‘s public swearing-in ceremony was cancelled (and made private) due to Gerald Ford’s death.

I agree with Ryan about Saddam: “Why let him become a martyr overnight, when he could of just rotted away in a jail cell for the rest of his life.”

Joe M. decides he’s going to broaden his focus to include life and not just politics. With that in mind, here’s something non-political but fun from one of my favorite bands, OK Go – “Here It Goes Again”

Gerry Fulcher calls Ron Williams a copycat. In other news, Fulcher is still pissed that we didn’t elect Ferris Wharton, who is clearly a Very Nice Republican (VNR).

Back to FSP, Jud had a bad year. Jud can be a VNR sometimes: “Nationally, the Republican Congress has been a pathetic embarrassment and the Iraq War has been a bloody, mismanaged disaster.” On the other hand, it’s hard for me to take his overwhelming fear of immigration seriously. Nativists have never been right, will never be right, and deserve the name of the party they once chose for themselves.

Tom declares 2006 a “good year for blogging in Delaware”, and mentions Jason’s Channel 12 TV appearance as one of several examples of the growing influence of the DE blogosphere.

Hmmm, what else… oh yeah. Some guy named X Stryker who is in fact me posts at delaware4obama that a new batch of polls from ARG aren’t quite as friendly to Obama as the last set from Research 2000. But they aren’t too bad, either. Biden gets 1 or 2% from IA, NV, NH, and SC – anyone want to place bets on how long it will be before he drops out? My money’s on November 2007.

New Years Resolutions

Happy New Year, Delaware! Tomorrow will be the first day of a new year I will spend in the First State advocating for the man I believe should be our first black president in 2008.

Five things I love about 2006:

We won congress!
I’ve finally begun to find my niche on the blogosphere.
Beau Biden passes his first test as Attorney General by hiring some amazingly well qualified people to bridge the gap in his experience.
NASA finally got some ISS infrastructure installed.
We also won a majority of the governorships and state legislatures.

I realize that’s a bit heavy on stuff that happened in November and December, but honestly, these have been two awesome months. Now, five resolutions that Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid should make:

Raise the minimum wage.
Invest heavily in alternative energy sources, especially renewable energy.
Hold the Bush administration accountable for its crimes.
Balance the budget.
Make health care more affordable.

Finally, here are five predictions for the new year:

Joe Biden will never poll better than 5% outside of Delaware for the Democratic presidential nomination. Sorry Joe!
Obama will declare that he is running for president next week.
The Bush administration will come up with several new ways to misrepresent the mess in Iraq, which not have improved by the end of the year (there will still be American troops there).
A Democrat will be elected Governor of Kentucky.
John Atkins will enter rehab and probably get divorced.

Don’t drink too much tonight!

Why Ford Pardoned Nixon

Why did the late President Gerald Ford pardon Dick Nixon? Was it for the good of the country?

Despite Nixon’s opinion, Ford told The Washington Post last year that his long personal friendship with Nixon played a role in his decision to issue the pardon for Watergate wrongdoing.

“I looked upon him as my personal friend. And I always treasured our relationship. And I had no hesitancy about granting the pardon, because I felt that we had this relationship and that I didn’t want to see my real friend have the stigma,” Ford told Post reporter Bob Woodward.

Awwww… the magic of friendship. That, folks, is why George W. Bush and the gang have no shame. Ford set a precedent – the president won’t be held accountable for any crimes he commits in office. We’re talking about war criminals – and while we’re at it, how is breaking the law on wiretapping any different from breaking into the Watergate hotel? They’re listening in on Americans talking domestically to other Americans, and no one has the power to review whether they’re listening to terror suspects or just political opponents – we’re supposed to just trust their judgement. Cheney would pardon Bush, Bush would pardon Cheney – even if we managed to get either of them out of office, they will never pay for their crimes.

Ford may have been the least awful Republican president sinced Eisenhower, but his pardon reinforced the concept of the “unitary executive”, AKA President-as-Emperor. Any student of history knows that hubris is the death of every empire.

Crashing the Gate

Howdy folks, I’m X Stryker, and I’ll be your host during Jason’s vacation week. I’m an Obama fan, and a frequent commenter on Swing State Project. I’m not one to shy away from controversy, so I’ll get straight to business:

Dana‘s exposing more double dipping from Democratic state legislators, and provides an outlet in the comments section for GOP renegades like Mike Protack and Tyler Nixon to vent. We definitely need ethics reform in the state legislature, but where will it come from? As Cracker said, “if you wanna change the world, shut your mouth and start to spin it.” So, here is my challenge to the readership:

Name progressive Democratic state legislators that we can try to engage to bring more accountability and progressive action to our caucus. John Kowalko comes to mind.
Pick the establishment Democratic state legislator that you think is the most odious, and would make the best target for a primary challenge. You can only pick !!ONE!!, so don’t give me a laundry list of everyone you don’t like, unless you want me to make fun of your inability to follow directions. Keep in mind, the ideal candidate is someone that we can replace with a progressive or populist DEMOCRAT, not a seat where any challenge essentially would amount to handing the seat to a socially conservative Republican.

The idea is to turn our frustration into action. Number one is about mobilizing the Good Guys, and giving them the support and encouragement to be a force for change. Number two is all about focus – the establishment is very strong. You can’t fight on every front at once and expect to win. They’ve got the power, the money, and the media – all we have is moral high ground, enthusiasm, and the efficiency of the blogosphere.

By the way – Drinking Liberally comes to Klondike Kates’s in Newark tonight at 8:00. I’ll be there, although I am a bit shy in person. Good times will probably be had, so come on down, knock back a few, and chat with other local liberals. They’re having a coat drive for Operation Warm to provide coats to disadvantaged children, so if you can bring a new (preferred) or used coat that would be very cool.