National

Josh Marshall:

There's no magic to Trump's political showmanship. The magic we saw through the Spring was a unique bond, a sort of mindmeld of white backlash and derp Trump built on an inspired intuition into the mind of the base of the Republican party. Provocation and offense didn't hurt Trump because ... he was preaching to an audience that yearned for both as positive goods. Campaigning in front of a general election audience today it's all working quite differently. Over the last two days I heard report after report from our team on Capitol Hill about Senators who were refusing to answer questions about Trump, simply walking away when asked about him, or in a growing number of cases, after his harrowing and unhinged speech on Monday, openly attacking him. [...] A month ago Republican elected officials were unenthusiastically but resolutely rallying around Trump. Since then they've slowly been reduced to a public and political version of a family dealing with a hopeless addict or a degenerate gambler. They keep saying, insisting he'll change, only to have him provide more evidence he can't, won't and has no intention to. Their very indulgence seems to prompt more unbridled behavior. The disgraceful way Trump handled the hours after the Orlando atrocity seems to have confirmed for many Republicans that Trump will never change or pivot or whatever other phrase we're now using. It's not an act. It's him. How this couldn't have been clear months ago is a topic for the psychology of denial and wishful thinking. But now it seems clear. [...] The question is how long this can last. Pretty much daily, major Republican leaders don't just disagree with Trump but denounce him in pretty round terms, even as they remain at least nominal endorsers of his candidacy and accept him as the leader of their party. That is entirely unprecedented in modern American political history. It doesn't seem sustainable.

I track the futures trading markets rather than polls because people are betting on outcomes with real money, and therefor stand to make (or lose) real money. That clears out the fanboys and pretenders. Of the predicting markets, I tend to look at IEM (Iowa Electronic Markets) because they have the history and larger volume of trades. So when I see "Dem to win White House" closing at $0.75, I'm impressed. [$0.75 means that people are buying and trading "Futures Contracts" called "Dem to win White House" for $0.75. If they hold onto them, those contracts will pay off $1.00 if/when that outcome happens. The more likely that outcome becomes, the close the trading price gets to $1.00] As a point of comparison, at on this day in 2008, "Dem to win White House" closed at $0.60.

Delaware's Tom Carper joined 39 Dem Senators in supporting Chris Murphy's filibuster to force a vote on closing the terror gap and gun show loophole. Where was Chris Coons?

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) is slated to address supporters with a video live stream on Thursday night, his campaign confirmed Tuesday. He may announce a transition to a platform campaign to press for changes to the party primary process and platform. Hillary seems to be doing a very good job of consolidating the Democratic base on her own without Bernie's help, so I am less concerned about an enthusiastic endorsement being made as soon as possible. Hillary has carved out some space for Bernie, Hillary and the DNC to negotiate and slowly tamp down the primary heat. Which is a good thing. A new Bloomberg poll finds that Hillary Clinton has opened up a double-digit lead nationally over Donald Trump, 49% to 37%, with Libertarian Gary Johnson getting 9%. Take out Johnson, and Hillary leads 54-36. That is simply a massive landslide that would sweep the country blue and give us back the House with a 20-30 seat majority. Very interesting: 55% of those polled saying they could never vote for Trump. Said pollster Ann Selzer: “Clinton has a number of advantages in this poll, in addition to her lead. Her supporters are more enthusiastic than Trump’s and more voters overall see her becoming a more appealing candidate than say that for Trump.” A new Reuters/Ipsos poll also shows Clinton leading by 12 points.