“Dem to win White House” hits $0.75, a new high close on IEM

“Dem to win White House” hits $0.75, a new high close on IEM

7 Comments
I track the futures trading markets rather than polls because people are betting on outcomes with real money, and therefor stand to make (or lose) real money. That clears out the fanboys and pretenders. Of the predicting markets, I tend to look at IEM (Iowa Electronic Markets) because they have the history and larger volume of trades. So when I see "Dem to win White House" closing at $0.75, I'm impressed. [$0.75 means that people are buying and trading "Futures Contracts" called "Dem to win White House" for $0.75. If they hold onto them, those contracts will pay off $1.00 if/when that outcome happens. The more likely that outcome becomes, the close the trading price gets to $1.00] As a point of comparison, at on this day in 2008, "Dem to win White House" closed at $0.60.
Wednesday Open Thread, June 15, 2016

Wednesday Open Thread, June 15, 2016

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Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) is slated to address supporters with a video live stream on Thursday night, his campaign confirmed Tuesday. He may announce a transition to a platform campaign to press for changes to the party primary process and platform. Hillary seems to be doing a very good job of consolidating the Democratic base on her own without Bernie's help, so I am less concerned about an enthusiastic endorsement being made as soon as possible. Hillary has carved out some space for Bernie, Hillary and the DNC to negotiate and slowly tamp down the primary heat. Which is a good thing. A new Bloomberg poll finds that Hillary Clinton has opened up a double-digit lead nationally over Donald Trump, 49% to 37%, with Libertarian Gary Johnson getting 9%. Take out Johnson, and Hillary leads 54-36. That is simply a massive landslide that would sweep the country blue and give us back the House with a 20-30 seat majority. Very interesting: 55% of those polled saying they could never vote for Trump. Said pollster Ann Selzer: “Clinton has a number of advantages in this poll, in addition to her lead. Her supporters are more enthusiastic than Trump’s and more voters overall see her becoming a more appealing candidate than say that for Trump.” A new Reuters/Ipsos poll also shows Clinton leading by 12 points.
Sen. Karen Peterson is Retiring

Sen. Karen Peterson is Retiring

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I just got word from a source that State Senator Karen Peterson has announced her retirement on the floor of the Senate. This is devastating news for progressives in this state. Clearly, from the reaction, and from my sources, this announcement was unexpected. I wonder if Peterson tabling Senate Bill 190, which is the first leg of an amendment to the Delaware Constitution to provide for equal protection under the law to all citizens regardless of race, sex, age, religion, creed, color, familial status, disability, sexual orientation, gender identity, or national origin, had anything to do with it. The filing deadline is July 12. There are no state representatives residing in her district. Literally none.

Monday Open Thread, June 13, 2016

2 Comments
Josh Marshall on the political fallout from the Orlando Massacre. Don't be so sure it helps Trump.
There appears to be a general consensus - met with glee by Trumpites and frustration by Democrats - that the atrocity in Orlando will be a boon to the campaign of Donald Trump. It will 'change the narrative' and play to Trump's call for a ban on Muslim immigration and general claim to be the only one tough enough to protect Americans. Put me down as skeptical about that assumption. [...] Trump's tweets [yesterday] morning were slashing but they were also preening, self-congratulatory and manic. There are ways to effectively politicize a tragedy. Trump appears psychologically incapable of doing so. He does sound 'tough' at some level. But far more he seems unsteady, erratic and self-obsessed. [Trump's speech today] will hurt him rather than help him. Because Trump is Trump. Most people have little appetite for a self-congratulatory and wildly politicized screed the day after a horrific attack. Some of you might be saying, You're being naive: fear sells. You're missing my point. Of course it does. But Trump's emotional instability, his temperament largely prevents him from effectively selling it. More than benefiting from a climate of fear, I suspect he is driving home what already worries voters, what is already his singular vulnerability: he lacks the temperament and emotional stability to be president. The other part of equation is Clinton. [...] When pollsters ask whether she has the temperament to be president and whether she is 'tough' and a leader she consistently and even today gets very high marks. That means she's well positioned to withstand hard attacks on this front. The same polls show that voters overwhelmingly believe Trump lacks the temperament to be president. If he acts now like he always acts he will confirm doubts and fears that are already at the forefront of the public mind.