Magnitude 7.0 in northern Cali near Eureka.  Tsunami warning issued.  Cue Rodney Crowell:

Hope everybody’s OK.  7.0 is serious.

Guest Post By Wasabi Peas:

This election cycle made me mad. Really, really mad. And not for the reasons folks reading this blog might think.

Post-election, many people, mainly liberals, have been complaining and pointing fingers, blaming Trump voters and progressives/leftists for Kamala Harris’ loss. While anger over another Trump presidency is indeed warranted, directing it at fellow voters is misdirected and counter-productive, causing more division at a time when unity is needed more than at any other point in the last 45-50 years.

There has been a decent amount of coverage detailing how isolated Americans have become. This silo-ing is by design: those with money and power know that isolation leads to division and anger, keeping us too distracted from the actual problems most of us face, which are caused by those with money and power. The degradation of geographic communities propelled by social media algorithms and other factors such as school choice have left us less connected to our physical neighbors. Hyper-individualism has naturally followed and, as a result, we have been unknowingly coerced into thinking that things are too broken to be fixed. This has led us to focus only on our own lives and inner circles rather than looking for ways we can take back power and make our communities better for all who live in them.

All of this has created a landscape where we are forced into voting for the “lesser of two evils.” We seem to have forgotten that our elected officials are supposed to EARN our votes by supporting platforms and initiatives that align with our ideals, and that those people work for us. Fear has driven us to scrape the bottom of the barrel and look for protection in candidates that clearly do not have our best interests at heart, but are slightly less offensive than the other person running.

The fact of the matter is that Kamala Harris and the Democratic Party failed to successfully earn the votes they needed to win, echoing the failures of Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign. They abandoned progressive talking points and a large bloc of their historic base (progressives), instead choosing to woo voters further right on the spectrum who had no intention of voting for Kamala anyway. The Democratic Party didn’t do enough, and blaming others for voting against, or refusing to vote for, a candidate whose campaign promises (or lack thereof) didn’t align with their beliefs is the antithesis to democracy.

And here is what Dems and many liberals/neoliberals don’t understand: Trump voters see the world very differently due to a number of factors, including media apparatus, their own social media algorithms, and, in many cases, a deeply seated hatred for the Dem Party that’s largely deserted and deceived them for decades (disclaimer: I completely understand that white supremacy and racism drives a significant part of the Trump base, but that is not all that’s at play here). “At least we always know where Trump stands, and he says what he means, unlike the crooked Dems.” Do I believe this is a reason to vote for someone? Absolutely not, but people with different worldviews will never change their minds unless they’re presented with different information, and Dems continue to bumble the strategies and messaging that would counter such forces.

Most Democratic voters have far more in common with Trump voters than the leaders of the Democratic Party. The everyday people of the GOP base want to be able to afford housing, healthcare, and childcare, too. While the Dems tend to promise to deliver these things during campaign seasons, they fail us time and again.

So many want to know why those Trump voters seemingly vote against their interests, and the hard truth is this: the GOP has gotten really good at messaging and blaming the Democratic Party for the problems our country faces, and they’ve been preparing for this moment for over 40 years. Meanwhile, the Dems don’t seem to be interested in crafting any meaningful responses to their charges. Even though Democratic priorities would likely produce more good for “the masses” than those of the GOP, Dems lack the either the willingness or care to go out and prove it. For example: Kamala’s campaign spent an inordinate amount of time campaigning in areas where they knew they’d win, like Philadelphia. On a national level, the Democratic Party doesn’t make the effort to talk to voters who don’t typically vote for them, but who would benefit from their priorities. Rust belt areas are another good example: they used to be heavily Union and voted blue.  Once those areas turned red, it seems the Dems largely decided to forsake those folks than win them back, an error that continues to cost them. They’ve run on codifying Roe, abolishing the the death penalty, and numerous other issues, but have done little to meet those expectations even when they had the numbers to do so.

What’s clear from this past election, though, is this: populism works, whether it’s positive or negative.  People are terrified of what’s happening to them, and Trump is an expert on capitalizing on those fears, so he wins. However, progressive populism is far more attractive, as is evidenced by numerous progressive ballot measures that were successful in red states. Nebraska, Alaska, and Missouri expanded sick leave. Alaska and Missouri approved a $15 minimum wage. Colorado, Kentucky, and Nebraska rejected school vouchers. Nevada abolished prison slavery. Seven states voted to codify abortion access, including Arizona, Montana, Missouri, and Nevada (and Florida was three points shy of the 60% threshold needed to do the same).

Another point of interest is that, in 2020, Bernie Sanders amassed grassroots donations from all states, with hot-spot mapping indicating donation concentrations in many red states. (Then the Democratic Party decided he wasn’t a viable candidate and sabotaged his chances in favor of a more establishment candidate in Hillary. Lack of appetite was demonstrated here.)

Additionally, Kentucky re-elected its Democratic governor last year. This is a critical point because Kentucky has only voted for Democratic presidential candidates three times since the 1950s (Jimmy Carter, and Bill Clinton twice). How does Andy Beshear do it? On the campaign trail, he TALKS to people, including those who historically may not have voted for him. He builds bridges, listens to what Kentuckians say, and follows through on his promises to the best of his abilities. The Democratic Party does not appear to seriously engage in such strategies during presidential campaigns.

This voter abandonment technique practiced by the Democratic Party now seems to be mirrored in the Democratic base, primarily with liberals/neoliberals. They see Trump voters as stupid, hopeless, and incapable of being good people, thus stripping them of their humanity. They call them “deplorables,” “rednecks,” and “hillbillies,” claiming the moral high ground. However, as we teach our children, condescension and insults don’t earn you friends or forward your cause, so resorting to this behavior appears to be wildly counter-productive at best.

During a time when the rich keep getting richer and many of our elected officials often ignore our most urgent needs and demands, we need each other more than ever. When we blame Trump voters for our problems, we are no better than the GOP folks who blame us for theirs. On top of this, the finger-pointing and name-calling sows discord, further dividing us and making us more susceptible to future losses. Hate is a product of fear, and the only way to overcome what’s keeping us down is to pool our collective power and push for what we need and deserve, and that means establishing common ground with folks who see the world much differently than you do (unions work this way, and we’ve seen the recent successes they’ve enjoyed). Not everyone will be open to such efforts, but you’d probably be amazed how many are.

Therefore, I present two challenges to you:

First, ask your Trump-loving neighbor what it is that he hates about the Dems. Ask your Trump-supporting aunt which issues she cares about most. Ask them to name all the people they think are responsible for creating the problematic system in which we find ourselves. I guarantee you that you have at least one thing in common with those folks, likely many more.

Second, get out into your community and make connections. Volunteer. Seek out mutual aid opportunities. Knock doors for an issue campaign about which you are passionate, even if it’s for just 30 or 45 minutes per week. This will not only uplift people and causes that really need support, but will also make you feel a lot less hopeless and helpless. We can make the biggest impact locally, so keep looking for ways you can make a difference.

Struggling to maintain our way of life in the current system will only get us so far before it all erodes, one targeted group after another. Building relationships and working together to make our society a better place for everyone will check these forces, putting power back in the hands of we, the people.

We must remember that it is our elected officials who are supposed to be working for us, and that “we” are many more than “they” are. There is immense power in numbers: we are not helpless, nor should we be hopeless. The opposite of isolation is community, and we must build community if we are to not only survive, but thrive.

The power is ours. We must only be brave enough to grasp it.

OK, guys, this is the big one.  The night always starts off bad as Kentucky and Indiana report first.  But we might at least get a sense as to the degree of an under-count of Harris voters even in these states, if there is an under-count.

Georgia and North Carolina close pretty early.  I think we’ll know then whether we’ll have a nail-biter on our hands.

Not only that–she’ll have coattails that will flip the House and quite possibly at least lead to a 50-50 Senate.

Yes, I think the polls are wrong.  I think that they have failed to account for what I see as being an overwhelming female vote that will result in something like a blue wave.

I see it in the early voting results.  Yes, a lot of the early voters are Republican women.  I see that as good.  They’re not rushing out to vote out of any sense of enthusiasm for Trump.  I think they’re determined to protect their rights as women.

Pundits nitpick every aspect of Kamala’s campaign.  However, none of the mistakes the campaign might have made reach the level of Trump’s refusal to even reach out to Nikki Haley and her supporters:

Former presidential candidate and onetime U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley criticized Trump world on Tuesday for being “overly masculine with this bromance thing” after former President Donald Trump’s rally at Madison Square Garden on Sunday.

“This is not a time to have anyone criticize Puerto Rico or Latinos,” Haley said, instead calling for discipline around the campaign. “This is not a time for them to get overly masculine with this bromance thing that they have.”

Haley noted other language used throughout the rally, as well as in Republican ads and messaging, that she called destructive to drawing women into the fold on Election Day. Polls show a major gender gap playing out with this election, with women turning to Vice President Kamala Harris in greater numbers and Trump winning among men.

“This bromance and masculinity stuff, it borders on edgy to the point that it’s going to make women uncomfortable,” Haley said.

‘Borders on’?  Trump’s campaign has been directly aimed at the bros and the MAGAts.  I think it has done him far more damage than good, and it’s driving the early turnout.  I think, without all that much evidence, that Republican women are disproportionately voting for Harris.  I know that Harris’ GOTV operation is far superior to whatever it is that Musk is funding to try to counter it.

Bottom line:  This is a turnout election.  There are more of us than there are of them.  Yes, even in the swing states.  Plus, the Harris campaign has momentum on their side, especially with the contrasting ‘closing arguments’ event.

I’ve been wrong before (see any of my prediction threads or, better yet, don’t).  But I think she wins, and wins far more handily than the polls suggest.