Futures Market Handicapping the Statewide Races – October 28th

5 Comments
Lots of buying and selling action in the trading markets since my last update. Who has crashed and who still has a little upside potential? Let's take a look.
Senate: Chris Coons 0.98 (0.98) - Kevin Wade 0.01 (0.02) House: John Carney 0.95 (0.99) - Rose Izzo 0.01 (0.01) Bernie August 0.04 (n/a) Attorney General: Matt Denn 0.95 (0.93) - Ted Kittila 0.05 (0.07) Treasurer: Chip Flowers 0.00 (0.39) - Sean Barney 0.48 (0.37) - Ken Simpler 0.48(0.17) - Sher Valenzuela 0.00 Auditor: Brenda Mayrack 0.48(0.43) - Tom Wagner 0.48 (0.47)
You could have made some money in the Treasurers race. Shorting Flowers at 0.40 and taking a long position in Simpler at 0.15 was the winning move. As it stands now, other than simply guessing the Treasurer and Auditors races and winning the coin flip, I don't see any profitable moves left. Simpler, for example, appears to be at his max trading value. Smart traders will probably be taking their Simpler profits off the table. But hey, this is politics so do "smart traders" exist? For instance, somebody placed some sentimental money on Bernie August, bidding him up to 0.04. (Okay, it was me. There is still a week to go. Carney could still Bill Roth it.)
Your Vote Should Be For The Party.

Your Vote Should Be For The Party.

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I argue that when you vote, your vote should be for the Party. I do not buy the concept "I vote for the candidate, not the Party". Sorry, but it is not unsophisticated or unthinking to vote a "straight ticket" in the case of partisan elections.

Monday Open Thread [10.27.14]

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E.J. Dionne Jr. on some underappreciated facts about the 2014 Midterms:
Underappreciated fact No. 1: The number of Democratic seats that are not in play this year. In planning its effort to take control of the Senate, Republicans shrewdly launched challenges to Democrats in states that would not automatically be on a GOP target list. "Broadening the map" is wise when you're in a strong position. Two of the states on that extended list, Colorado and Iowa, have paid off for Republicans. [...] Just as striking is how many Democrats seem to have nailed down races the Republicans had once hoped to make competitive. This has narrowed the GOP’s path to a majority. Among them: Sen. Al Franken of Minnesota, Sen. Jeff Merkley of Oregon and Rep. Gary Peters of Michigan, who is likely to retain Sen. Carl Levin’s seat. Sen. Mark Warner of Virginia is also polling well, though he was always favored against former Republican National Committee chairman Ed Gillespie. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire is in a tougher race with former Massachusetts senator Scott Brown, but she has led most of the way. [U]nderappreciated fact No. 2: How important economic issues have been in shoring up the party’s incumbents and in giving life to Democratic challengers in Georgia, Kentucky and (a much longer shot) South Dakota. [E]ndangered Democrats are campaigning on a different set of national concerns related to economic worries. These include equal pay for women, relief for student loan recipients and a minimum-wage increase. Several Democrats, including Shaheen and Michelle Nunn in Georgia, have made an issue of opposing the outsourcing of U.S. jobs overseas. [U]nderappreciated fact No. 3: Given Obama’s low approval ratings, Republicans could have been running away with this thing. They’re not, because they look more extreme and out of touch than they did four years ago.
Tom Wagner charging $1,200 to see his schedule

Tom Wagner charging $1,200 to see his schedule

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What do you do if you are a lazy do-nothing auditor who has been sucking on the government teet for 25 years, and someone asks to see your schedule? You try to wrap yourself in an expensive FOIA estimate and hope the request goes away. That was Wagner's plan when Brenda Mayrack asked to see his schedule to check up on why his office has been chronically understaffed. From Mayracks FB page:
* Is the State Auditor’s Office attending local job fairs? After not seeing the office on the list of attendees at a University of Delaware job fair for accounting students, we filed a Freedom of Information Act request for the State Auditor’s schedule: “For the year 2014, the public schedule of R. Thomas Wagner, Jr., including all meetings and public events.” The response from his office: “In order to construct information in response to request below and based what we have available in the Office, I estimate it will run approximately $1,191.” And that’s the cost for sending it by email so we didn’t incur any copying or mailing fees.

Sunday Open Thread [10.26.14]

1 Comment
Pew Research:
"Voter frustration with members of Congress is currently even higher than it was 2010 or 2006. Fully 68% of registered voters say they do not want to see most members of Congress reelected - 14 points higher than in 2010 and 19 points higher than in 2006. And roughly a third (35%) say they do not want their own representative reelected, compared with 32% four years ago and 26% eight years ago." "Yet unlike in those elections, when a single party controlled both the House and Senate, anti-incumbent sentiment now crosses party lines. Republican and Democratic voters are about equally likely to oppose the reelection of most representatives and their own member of Congress."
Saturday Open Thread [10.25.14]

Saturday Open Thread [10.25.14]

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Politico reported yesterday evening that the lawsuit -- which was supposed to challenge Obama's executive orders regarding Obamacare (and appease the impeachment caucus in the lead-up to the midterm elections) -- hasn't actually been filed yet. Now isn't that emblematic of everything the Republican Party stands. Lots of sound and fury signifying nothing of substance.
Some Asshole Fascist Bigot of a Republican Congressman…

Some Asshole Fascist Bigot of a Republican Congressman…

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...doesn't expect to meet gays in Heaven.
In an interview with the Jefferson Herald, King discussed a preliminary document produced during Catholic bishops' recent synod that stated gays had "gifts" to offer the Christian community. [...] King was asked specifically whether he thought divorce or cohabitation were sins. The synod's preliminary document had called for the church to respect divorced Catholics and stated that in regard to homosexual unions, "it has to be noted that there are cases in which mutual aid to the point of sacrifice constitutes a precious support in the life of the partners." “I think that I’ll not comment on that part,” King told the newspaper. “I’ll just say that what was a sin 2,000 years ago is a sin today, and people that were condemned to hell 2,000 years ago, I don’t expect to meet them should I make it to heaven. So let’s stick with that principle.”
Friday Open Thread [10.24.14]

Friday Open Thread [10.24.14]

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With less than two weeks to go, the polling is coming fast and furious. But some pollsters are jumping ahead to get a preview of the 2016 Presidential. So before we dive into the pile of 2014 polls... from the The Fix:
"[A] new Washington Post-ABC News polling on the 2016 Republican presidential race makes one thing very clear: Every GOPer who has even a hint of ambition for national office is likely to run in two years time. Why? Because the field is remarkably frontrunner-less, meaning that every Ted, John and Rob can make a plausible case to activists and donors that they are going to eventually be the guy."
And for that reason, Mitt Romney, the retread from 2008 and 2012, is the frontrunner. The Devil you know...
Thursday Open Thread [10.23.14]

Thursday Open Thread [10.23.14]

26 Comments
The difference between a responsible and ethical media, interested in journalistic integrity and facts, and a hyperbolic entertainment first enterprise, interesting only in ratings and thus profit, and facts and ethics must never interfere with that pursuit. CNN and Fox do not want to inform you. They want you only as a daily consumer of their content. They don't care to inform you. In fact, they will misinform you if that is what makes you a daily consumer of their content. They will do anything and everything to scare you. It is why there are people in this country, many many many people, that are convinced ISIS is now invading the US. That Ebola is currently killing millions of Americans. Driving home yesterday, I have CNN on my Sirius XM, and heard Wolf Blitzer breathlessly shout that OTTAWA IS ONLY AN HOUR'S DRIVE TO THE AMERICAN BORDER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Fuck Wolf Blitzer.
KWS Goes to Bat For Mega Insurance Company

KWS Goes to Bat For Mega Insurance Company

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Our purported insurance regulator, Insurance Commissioner Karen Weldin Stewart, is instead trying to run interference for Met Life.  Check out this article from the state government website: fer cryin' out loud:
DOVER, DE  – In a letter to U.S. Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew and other federal regulators, Delaware Insurance Commissioner Karen Weldin Stewart has urged them to reconsider their vote to propose that MetLife be labeled as a “systemically important financial institution” (SIFI) and therefore subject to tougher federal regulation. “Based on my experience as an insurance regulator (insert joke here), and a regulator of one of MetLife’s larger insurance subsidiaries, I do not believe that MetLife’s businesses and corporate structure create the kind of systemic risk that Dodd-Frank’s SIFI designation process was designed to address,” she said. Stewart argues explicitly against the designation of MetLife and said state regulators are capable and competent to continue the oversight of the company (insert joke here).
Another Opinion on Barney-Simpler

Another Opinion on Barney-Simpler

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I received another possible theory on how the Treasurer's race is developing from a source who wants to remain anonymous. I think it is interesting and plausible enough to post and get everyone else's opinion on it.
Simpler could totally win this, in part because of Dem overconfidence and lack of financial engagement. He's spent his independent money very smartly. He let the rich R's attack Sher from the right so he could immediately claim the moderate ground. Dems had been so focused on the the primary on their side, that they never forced Ken to stake out positions on divisive issues during the primary. So he can say whatever he wants now. The belief that Dems can't lose statewide mean nobody's pinning him down now, either. And he's got his own money and the relationship with WBOC to get up on TV, which really moves #s. The counterbalancing financial forces on the D side like AFSCME and Labor don't seem to take the Simpler threat seriously. People will regret it.