National

Recent national polls show that independents are moving back to the President. A Zogby poll finds Obama has picked up five points among independents, while the latest national Public Policy Polling tracking poll shows Obama turning a longtime disadvantage with independents into a 49% to 44% advantage. Furthermore, a new national ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll shows Obama and Romney deadlocked with independents, at 46% each, matching Obama's best showing among that group in that survey and coming after Romney had reached a high of 58% just a week and a half earlier. Finally, the Politico/GWU tracking poll finds the two men essentially tied with independents just a week after Romney held a double-digit lead with them. Here is our map based on all the most recent polls below. As you can see, Colorado has moved back to the Obama column, and Florida back to the Romney column. Those two swing states have been the swingiest all campaign. I think Obama has the edge in Colorado and Romney, due to the illegal and immoral actions of the fascist Governor Rick Skeletor Scott, has the edge in Florida. Personally, I actually think Obama is going to win North Carolina due to the early voting lead he has, while Florida remains a true toss up. Indeed, the polling average of all the polls in Florida released yesterday show 48.89 for Romney and 48.22 for Obama. It doesn't get much closer than that.

I've reached the point where Florida officials have to admit they're deliberately suppressing the vote (cheating) or admit they are completely incompetent and resign immediately. Perhaps it's time to move control of elections to the Federal level, because this is obviously something certain states can't handle.  Let's make Florida Department of Elections a ward of the court - after all, how many times has Florida screwed this up?  There shouldn't be this many different rules (and political games by Republicans) to vote.

I don't expect DC-bubble-dwelling-incumbent Democratic-shitheads like Tom Carper to ever get it, but pretending to be a Republican is unpopular among voters - while pretending to be a Democrat is popular. The proof is all around us. Even this Presidential election confirms it.

Above you will see all my predictions for the 21 Senate races to be decided this Tuesday. Nine races are basically decided. Six Senators are unopposed completely: Senators Margaret Rose Henry, Bob Marshall, Dave McBride, Karen Peterson, Bethany Hall Long, and Brian Bushweller. Senators Colin Bonini, Harris McDowell, and Patti Blevins only have third party opposition, and all three will win easily. So we are already at 8 Democrats, and 1 Republican. 11 seats are needed for a majority. For the Dems, that means three to go.

Team Romney is already offering excuses for their upcoming loss on Tuesday. And some campaign insiders are in full CYA mode in speaking on the record to Politico saying that Romney's first choice for Vice President was Chris Christie, rather than Paul Ryan. I suppose they could also be trying to latch onto Christie's recent bipartisan and excellent performance during the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy, but instead it looks like a tell tale sign of campaign already in the post mortem mode. Speaking of Sandy:

Campaign sources concede superstorm Sandy stalled Romney's momentum. For eight straight days, polls showed him picking up support. The campaign's internal polling, which is using different turnout models than most public polls, had him on solid ground in Florida, Virginia, North Carolina and Iowa. He had a slight lead or was tied in Ohio, New Hampshire and Wisconsin and was in striking distance in Pennsylvania, a state Republicans hadn't won since Ronald Reagan in 1984. ... But then came something very big: a natural disaster that left a path of death and destruction on the East Coast. Suddenly, there was little talk about small things.

Yeah, I would like to see what the Romney campaign's turnout model is. I suppose they are like most of the right wing and assume that a 2010 electorate will show up, rather than a presidential year electorate. What morons.

We have two conflicting polls out of Florida. One has Obama leading 49-47. The other has Romney winning 51-45. That is a pretty wide disparity. One of the pollsters is wrong. Regardless, the average of the two gives Romney a slim 2 point lead, and so the state moves back to the pink zone. Meanwhile, Obama's lead in Ohio is growing ever larger.

I think we are looking at our final map here, folks. Obama has come on in Florida, but it is still possible that Romney can win that state. In fact, I think Nate Silver gives the odds to Romney there. Meanwhile, it is also possible that Obama can win in North Carolina, but that is much less likely that Romney winning Florida. Why am I so confident on Obama winning Florida, you ask? Yesterday, a Democratic operative sent the Tampa Bay Times some data on the early vote in Florida so far "to make the point that President Obama is crushing Mitt Romney when it comes to banking the votes of sporadic and infrequent voters before election day."

"So far more than 3 million Floridians have cast a ballot by absentee, mail-in ballot or in-person early vote ballot. Democrats lead by more than 60,000 votes, but it's the unlikely voter numbers that jump out: Of the nearly 414,000 Floridians who did not vote in the last three general elections, Democrats have an advantage of more than 53,000 votes. Of the more than 482,000 Floridians who have only voted in one of the last three general elections, Democrats lead by more than 77,000 -- a total of more than 132,000."