Open Thread

I am not sure what Rove is smoking making us think Georgia, Kentucky, Tennessee, and North Dakota are only leaning Republican while Colorado is in the bag for Obama. It is most likely a Rovian mind trick, trying to get us to spend money there. So I started looking at all the state polls on the Huffington Post map, and determined that I too would maintain our own DL map in the open threads day to day, based on only the latest polls in that state, except for Rasmussen polls for obvious reasons.

The UK and the Eurozone are stagnant, even declining back into recession, because they are pursing the Republican policy of severe austerity. That is what will happen to us if we elect Mitt Romney and a Republican Congress. A return to recession.

Dana Milbank: "Aficionados of the Etch a Sketch will recall a certain flaw in the toy: If you use it often, some of the lines drawn no longer disappear when you shake the device, instead leaving an indelible trace of where you have been."

Even though the general election campaign is now underway, [...] there are five primaries today in Connecticut, Delaware, New York, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island. As a result, this is the first primary day where Romney doesn't face any real competition. So when we watch the returns, we'll get a good idea of the true anti-Romney vote tonight. Does he get at least 50% in all of these contests? What about 60%? 70%?"

File this under the Captain Obvious category: The AP reported this weekend that the improving economy is "swinging the pendulum" in President Obama's favor "in the 14 states where the presidential election will likely be decided."

The Creation Story: It looks like Gallup Tracking has joined Rasmussen in Republican outlier territory. I wonder if Gallup is assuming a 2010 electorate. I might have to go digging…

A new CNN survey of Republicans finds that they want a Romney-Rice ticket. Yes, Condoleeza "No one could have predicted 9/11" Rice leads the veepstakes with 26%, ahead of Rick Santorum at 21%, Marco Rubio at 14%, Chris Christie at 14%, and Paul Ryan at 8%. I wonder if this poll offered the names or if these names were volunteered. But putting her on the ticket would be a disastrous move on Romney's part.

"Many progressive donors think President Obama has it in the bag. But he doesn't even have it in the shopping cart yet, much less in the bag." Paul Begala, in an interview with Greg Sargent, saying Democratic donors need to step up. To illustrate that point, Romney has gotten a post-primary bounce. All polls, even yesterday's CNN poll shoiwng a 9 point Obama lead, show improvement for Romney.

I thank Nemski for helping out with the open threads during the last several days. I was very busy in real life elsewhere. Do we have polls? That's a silly question. An Associated Press analysis of the presidential battleground finds Mitt Romney likely has 188 electorate votes in states that are either solidly Republican or leaning Republican while President Obama has 242 electoral votes in safe Democratic or likely Democratic states. That leaves 104 electoral votes in states that are purely tossups: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia. I would give the President the edge in Colorado, Florida, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia. Indeed, the only swing state I see him losing is Iowa.