Obama hits 50%

Filed in National by on September 2, 2008

According to the Gallup Daily Tracking Poll.

Any ideas of what led to this milestone?

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A stay-at-home mom with an obsession for National politics.

Comments (12)

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  1. DPN says:
    September 2, 2008 at 2:44 pm

    Palin going from MILF to GILF in 4 days.

  2. jason330 says:
    September 2, 2008 at 3:03 pm

    Gallup daily tracking poll is a blight – but it is better than that stupid ZOGBY poll that Allan Loudell is in love with.

    Loudell needs to get his head out of his ass. He keeps quoting the partisan ZOGBY poll numbers as if they are real.

  3. rsmitty says:
    September 2, 2008 at 3:06 pm

    Loudell needs to get his head out of his ass. He keeps quoting the partisan ZOGBY poll numbers as if they are real.

    I think he should use the DELib poll instead.

  4. mike w. says:
    September 2, 2008 at 3:10 pm

    Jason – I forgot, any poll numbers (or stats in general) that you disagree with are to be disregarded as “not real.”

  5. pandora says:
    September 2, 2008 at 3:17 pm

    I’m not that into polls, but this one seemed worth mentioning.

    BTW, I would have pointed out (and still will) if McCain hits 50%… if I can type through the tears.

  6. Von Cracker says:
    September 2, 2008 at 3:58 pm

    The Zogby poll was an unscientific Interactive poll. So when comparing methodology, yes, the ZI poll is not real – as in accurate.

  7. Dorian Gray says:
    September 2, 2008 at 4:05 pm

    BHO is 51% in Rasmussen.

    http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

  8. JohnnyX says:
    September 2, 2008 at 4:18 pm

    Holy crap, DPN, the “milf to gilf” line is the funniest thing I’ve read today.

  9. Allan Loudell says:
    September 2, 2008 at 7:15 pm

    To all,

    At the risk of wading into this controversy, have you all forgotten that Zogby’s polls tended to FAVOR Obama during the primaries and caucuses, compared to other polls, and Zogby often beat the others?

    The one time Zogby blew it big was California, where he projected Obama doing much better.

    Zogby nailed the outcome in North Carolina.

    The point is—I find it interesting if a pollster whose methodology tended to favor Obama during the Primary/Caucus season then produces a poll where the race is razor-thin and/or McCain is actually ahead.

    I agree the Interactive polls shouldn’t be taken as seriously as the regular telephone polls, but , Zogby does try to take demographic data into account when ‘weighting’ the numbers, as I understand it. (I’ll have to check on this again!)

    But the point is… the Interactive polls have often favored Obama more than the telephone polls by a whisker, and my theory is that simply reflects that Obama supporters – in general – are more technologically savvy. When I brought that up to Zogby the other day, he couldn’t disagree.

    I DO go to Zogby more often for the above reasons, plus I know him better – met him in Wilmington some years ago – and I do have full permission to reproduce on my blog as much as I want.

    This doesn’t mean I discount the other pollsters. Quite to the contrary. I just posted on my blog the latest CBS News poll AND the latest Gallup daily tracking poll. I generally see day-to-day tracking polls as the most unreliable, but – of course – you can get trends.

    And in this case, it IS psychologically significant that Senator Obama met the 50 percent threshold for the first time in the Gallup daily tracking poll.

    With an uptick from 49 to 50 percent, that IS statistically insignificant, but still carries that psychological landmark, as I noted above.

    Lest we forget, Jimmy Carter beat Gerald Ford in 1976 with 50.1 %… the last time the Democrats won a majority!

    Allan Loudell
    WDEL Radio & http://www.wdel.com

  10. delawaredem says:
    September 2, 2008 at 7:53 pm

    Allan…

    There are two Zogby polls. The ones in the primaries that you refer to were not interactive online polls. They were the standard phone call polls. The one showing McCain up is an online poll, which are universally thought to be crap. Indeed, our online polls here at DL probably are just as trustworthy.

  11. Allan Loudell says:
    September 2, 2008 at 8:30 pm

    Points taken.

    But I stress – except for the last one – Zogby’s interactive polls have tended to favor Obama more than his telephone polls.

    Allan Loudell

  12. Bookem says:
    September 3, 2008 at 7:54 am

    This is great news. . .if the election is tomorrow.

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