The DE Senate [2010] – Two Weeks Out
The current Senate is comprised of 15 Democrats and 6 Republicans, represented by the map on the left. It is impossible for the Republicans to win back the Senate this year. There are 11 seats up for election. Democrats are defending 8 of the 11 seats. So you say to yourself, hey, it is possible for the GOP to win the five seats they need for the majority. Well, the problem is the GOP is not challenging Democratic Senators McDowell, Bunting and McBride. So, to win the majority, the GOP will have to defeat all five remaining Democrats, all the while they fight off the challenge to Cathy Cloutier in the 5th Senate District. I believe they will be successful in defending Cloutier’s seat in the 5th. And they will oust Nancy Cook in the 15th. But they will not be able to gain any more seats. Ennis is safe. The races against Blevins and Sokola will be competitive but the GOP will fall short. And Karen Peterson and Bruce Ennis are safe for reelection.
So the GOP will gain one seat, and the new Senate, represented by the map on the right, will be made up of 14 Democrats and 7 Republicans.
(5) CATHY CLOUTIER—Toss-up. This is the Democrats’ only opportunity to pick up a Senate seat this year. Bulo thinks that Christopher Counihan has run a good campaign and is poised to topple Cloutier in this Democratic district. I guess I have to see it to believe it. In a Democratic year, I think Counihan wins. In a Republican year, Cloutier once again hangs on by the skin of her teeth. In an anti-incumbent yet Republican year, it is a toss up and it comes down to turnout. But for now, I think Cloutier hangs on.
(7) PATTY BLEVINS—Lean Democratic. Former Congressional candidate Fred Cullis is the Majority Leader’s opponent this time around. She won with 73% in 2006. But Christine O’Donnell did pick up some votes in this district, and Fred Cullis might be competitive. I think Blevins wins though, as Cullis is not a strong candidate.
(8) DAVID SOKOLA—Lean Democratic. Sokola won in 2006 with 57% of the vote. His Republican challenger is Louis Saindon, “one of those cookie cutters from another Rethug front organization–Leadership Delaware.” Sokola should be able to win this race.
(9) KAREN PETERSON—Safe Democratic. Peterson’s opponent is Robert S. Johnston, who was the President of the Exton Chamber of Commerce. Exton, Pennsylvania. Besides living in Newark, Johnston is otherwise unknown in Delaware. Karen wins easily.
(14) BRUCE ENNIS—Safe Democratic. Ennis seems well suited for his district, but this will be his first race for reelection. His opponent, John Moritz, is a Townsend resident and the President of Delta Engineering Corp., an aeronautical engineering firm. Ennis wins easily.
(15) NANCY COOK—Toss up. And finally we come to the one race where I think the GOP has its best opportunity to pick up a Democratic Senate seat. The long time incumbent, Cook, 74, is the ultimate Dover insider. She opposes open government, so we progressives would not mind if she is bounced from office. Her opponent, Republican Dave Lawson He is a retired Delaware State Police lieutenant and current owner of the “Shooter’s Choice” gun store in Dover. He is a certified firearms instructor, teaching the course that applicants for a concealed-carry permit must pass. In this conservative district, in this Republican year, against a long term incumbent, Lawson will win. Good bye Cook.
Sorry, Delaware Dem, but Nancy Cook will win her race and progressives need to get behind her to make it happen. She singlehandly saved Delaware’s state budget from collapsing even further and was the key player in saving teacher and public sector jobs this last year. She may be old school but she’s not ‘old fool’. Progressives would be remiss if Nancy was dumped. Her opponent would not help any progressive causes in Leg Hall. Don’t cut your nose off to spite your face!
If Nancy wanted progressives to support and work hard for her, she should be progressive. Or at the very least not have an open disdain about open government.
Now, normally, I would agree with you about “cutting off your nose to spite your face.” I am the anti-purist pragmatic Delaware Dem after all. But the overwhelming 2-1 majority in the Senate is in no danger without Nancy. So if Nancy’s seat were the deciding seat for the majority, I would be pounding the pavement for her. But its not, and so, we get to add by subtracting, as Bulo says.
NANCY COOK will win because Democrats in Smyrna/Clayton are more of a tribe or clan (Klan?) than a political party. The Cook/Vaughn/Wicks family gathering might be breaking down a bit, but I don’t think it is broken down enough to help Mr. Lawson.
Seniors who don’t hate the government as much as you think, the prison industrial complex and a large number of union members who commute from the country to work on roads and buildings in NCC are the voting base and Cook brings home the bacon.
The Clayton Tavern crowd loves NASCAR but they also drink a lot of Pabst Blue Ribbon brewed by Brewery Workers local 9, Milwaukee, WI.
I am very Kent-County-ignorant, and have no take on the likelihood of a Lawson victory.
I am, however, very much in DEDem’s camp with ‘if you want progressive support, then be progressive.’ It’s that simple.
Indeed, Cook losing the senate seat in no way weakens the Democratic Party’s hold of the state senate, and the purse-strings–there is just one less ‘behind-closed-doors (BCD) Dem’ holding them (and one less vote for DeLuca to remain President Pro Tempore). Further, as a die-hard progressive, I feel that the BCD Dems hurt other DE Dems, as we have to hang our heads in shame in the Delaware Way in which the state has operated (under Vaughn, for instance).
The BCD Dem approach weakens the DE Dem brand, and the sooner we turnover the state senate to more 21st century Dems, the better. Give me more senate Dems like Peterson, Katz, Counihan, Sokola.
In time we will hit a tipping point, where Dem senators like Blevins and Ennis will be reliable allies of the ’21st century Dem senators’. I suspect that they are allies of the BCD Dems out of pragmatism, rather than principle, and wouldn’t fight the shift to the 21st century approach.
I can definitely live with that.
And remember, I am not a purist all the time. I have started multiple flame wars on Daily Kos over the purist v. pragmatist issue, taking the pragmatist tone. I have supported conservative Democrats like Jim Webb. But there are times when some enough is enough, and it is time to kick someone to the curb. Like in Joe Lieberman’s case.
Delaware Dem, your idea of Democrats winning by Cook losing doesn’t do it for me. That’s just like all those O’Donnell voters thinking they are cleansing the GOP by getting rid of Mike Castle. Now I’m glad to see the GOP turn on itself but instead of grabbing the center and governing with a larger majority, you are advocating getting rid of Nancy Cook in the same way as the GOP did with Castle for ideological purity. ‘Big tent’ even with people you may not always agree with beats ‘little closet’ with your best friends any day, especially when you need votes to pass legislation. Besides, Cook’s record on the budget and on JFC is a lot more progressive than you think.
obiwan, DEDem isn’t proposing primarying Nancy Cook out, nor is he proposing the state party abandoning Cook.
He seems to be saying that progressives shouldn’t knock themselves out fighting for at best a moderate, when there are races with real progressives running elsewhere in DE (Heffernan and Counihan as two examples), where we can move the General Assembly forward.
Progressives are not the party, we are a subtent, and as such, I see no problem noting that we are not the entire tent.
The Delaware Democratic Women’s club is a similar subtent. By not supporting Sokola, they aren’t saying that he is a bad Democrat, just that he is not a great fit for their preferred flavor of Democrat.
Progressive Democrats like Democratic candidates who champion progressive causes. We don’t (or at least not too often) vilify less progressive Democrats–we don’t cleanse. We promote progressive issues, policies and candidates. We hope that, through evolution (not revolution), the Democratic party will adopt more of these progressive policies and issues, and ‘progress.’
Progressives are not ‘little closet’ folks, but we also are not ‘full tent’ folks–that is the job of the Democratic Party.
People tell me Nancy Cook is one of the few on the JFC who “gets it” and acts like a grownup when necessary. On the negative side, she’s a posterwoman for nepotism in Dover and her attitude about closed doors is odious.
On balance, I wouldn’t lift a finger to help her and I’m not going to cry if/when she goes.
Cook/Vaughn/Wicks
*
Jason – is this DelDOT Secy Carolann Wicks’ family of which you speak?
She’s one of the few who ‘gets it’ b/c she has systemically ‘kept it’ from everyone else. The Controller General’s office, which is supposed to provide fiscal information to all legislators, for example, is controlled by Nancy Cook. Legislators only get to know what Cook wants them to know. She thinks that she has made herself indispensable by shutting everyone out of the information stream. With her gone, the real information will be available to many more members, who will more than adequately fill her shoes.
Could it be a rough transition? Possibly. But that’s all it would be…a transition.
Cook is cooked. Ride around the district, talk to people and the Lawson signs are impossible to ignore.
Nancy Cook’s committee, I believe, is the one that killed the redistricting bill. She obviously wanted no part of that and hid it in her desk drawer. She complained about open government. If she loses, she will not be missed.
No way can the GOP pick up enough seats – but your concept that some of these races wont be a challenge is flawed. I will say that COD has hurt most of the R’s though – unless they are in the radical right with her.
I visited the last debate hosted by Greater Hockessin Area Development Association and have to say that there were some interesting statements.
Cullis while very much on the attack – made some good points and he will pick-up some support although Patty did a great job in reminding folks how the State budget is different from most other states and really explained some detail about how things work.
Dave and Louis Saindon were tremendously respectful of one another. I was actually a bit surprised – they seem to actually like one another. The contrast came down to government size, taxes and a bit of education. When asked difference Dave really didn’t say much and Saindon stated that the difference was a 20 year incumbent vs. him being a political new comer.
As I have posted before, I met Louis Saindon and am impressed. of course I am still a Coons fan, Feel the same about Carney as Castle but I will likely split the ticket for Saindon…
Believe me, you do not want Trooper Lawson in the State Senate.
A Bonini win at Treasurer would create a huge pickup opportunity for Democrats in December special.
Very good comment about Leadership Delaware, a chintzy candidate-training front.
Doesn’t Andy Statton (current Leadership Delaware Fellow) run the campaign for Pete Schwartzkopf?
Nancy is cooked. The 9-12 boys will do her in and elect one of their own. Lawson is a breath of fresh air. Nancy is too stale for the district. Intelligent Democrats are tired of her as well.
Lawson 56% Cook 44%.
The 32nd District race is actually a 3-way. If you’ve given up on your own guy, I’d suggest taking a look at another candidate who is against discrimination, against civil rights violations, against war, and against government interference in your personal life.
/shameless self promotion