41 days until election day – The Betting Lines
Since the Dem primary will settle the issue for many of the races in Delaware, election day is effectively just over a month out.
September 11, 2012 Primary Election
- Insurance Commissioner – Weldin Stewart/Crane/Others – Crane plus 1
- Wilmington Mayoral Race – Williams/Kelley/others – No line yet
- SD 1 McDowell/Brady/Martin – McDowell plus 2
- SD 6 Miller/Frederick/Staton – Staton plus 6
- SD 11 DeLuca/Townsend – even money
- RD 15 Longhurst/Burton – Longhurst plus 3
- RD 19 Dunn/Williams – even money
- RD 23 Baumbach/Bock/Grant – No line yet
- RD 32 McGlumphey/Bennett- even money
I’m curious why you rate Dunn/Williams even money. I would have said Williams +1 based on school board exposure and the fact that Dunn has some high negatives in the district.
Among the few GOP primary races that will probably decide a district, how about RD 22 Manolakos/Miro?
As far as Wilmington’s Mayor race, I’m getting a strong Williams’ vibe.
In addition to Dunn/Williams, I am probably off a bit on DeLuca/Townsend. The incumbency is a weighty factor.
RD 22 Manolakos/Miro ??? I don’t know. I guess Miro gets a slight edge as I look at this. I was never terribly impressed by Manolakos, but I can be convinced.
How does this work and what do the pluses mean? Percentage points of victory?
Also, the Dem primary in the 6th is no guarantee of a winner. Urquhart can dump mad money into the fall, and Lopez will run a hardcore ground campaign. Staton will have a fight either way.
I saw my first, and only, Frederick sign last week! Miller has more of a visible campaign than he does.
Miro was out knocking on doors this weekend got to give him props for that. Not my district but was there when he visited.
@SussexWatcher it is all very complex Al Gore rhythms, presented to give the effect as having been pulled out of my ass.
But seriously folks, the early betting lines are for the bookie (me) to get a sense of the market, so I can get bets on both outcomes. [Dear FBI – for amusement only.]
Bill Dunn received 42.7% against Paul Clarke in the 2008 primary (county-wide), 18,303 votes in his favor. This name recognition should be a positive factor for Bill (one of many factors for and against the two candidates).
As I door-knock throughout the 23rd RD, at least in June and July (prior to mailers), there are many voters who do not know any of the three of the candidates in our race. Name recognition matters, when there is an open seat.
Urquhart wins the sign campaign but my guess is that many folks are weary of the partisan crap and would like to see a serious moderate who has some intelligence and willingness to use it to get things done instead of just trying to beat the other party. Lopez may be the breath of fresh air that fed up Rs are looking for. Staton probably has a better chance against Urquhart than Lopez. Still, a win by Lopez could also be a win for the people.
Of course someone could be asking Urquhart questions like how feels about federal dollars being spent dredging Silver Lake in Rehoboth, considering he lives just about right on the lake. In my experience, those who rant against government spending usually are ranting against government spending on others, not on themselves. Thus far, Urquhart has not articulated his position on specific issues, opting instead for platitudes so it’s difficult to determine how he feels about any specific issue.
I think Williams is favored in Wilmington, particularly with Montgomery still in the race. BTW, based on sign clusters, it looks like Gordon and Williams might have an ‘understanding’.
I HAVE to think that McGlumphey is the favorite over Bennett. Anybody down there with some ‘on-the-ground’ info?
I’m hearing Williams too, but this is not a race anyone should be happy to win. With votes split three ways and two fringe candidates hanging on, 40 percent could be enough to win the primary, which is as good as winning the election.
But a mayor with only 40 percent support will likely have some trouble building the alliances needed to govern effectively (and Williams has done little to show me that he’s a coalition builder), and that could set the winner up for some forceful competition (perhaps even from Republicans) four years from now.
Dave, all of Urquhart’s signs are on his own properties and Christian/Joe Hudson’s properties, I rarely see an Urquhart sign on some’s front lawn. It’s an illusion of support.
Kelley a marginal third in Wilmington, perhaps creating enough damage to make the hideous phrase “Mayor Dennis P. Williams” a reality.
PS – McGlumphy crushes Bennett. If past performance is a guide, Brady beats McDowell and Nick beats Miro. Hoping for Townsend, but no wager yet.
Much as I like Bill Montgomery, I don’t see him running ahead of Kelley, who has been out in the neighborhoods for two years while Bill was hunkered down in the mayor’s office and took too long to get himself out from under Baker’s shadow. There aren’t enough business-first types in the city for Montgomery to win.
@anon,
Yeah I have noticed Urquhart’s signs are clustered (and on Christian/Hudson proporties) (Dawn’s Country Market is on Hudson property. That’s why I think that Lopez has a real chance.
I’ve limited my lawn to Deaver signs at the moment. Don’t want to dilute the message.
I’m with MW. I don’t see any support for Montgomery from anyone except the moneyed class. In Wilmington, that’s not enough to escape third place.
JM: I’d make Miro a favorite over Nick, who hasn’t done anything in Dover that anyone up there would notice. Miro simply has a much longer track record, and I think he retained more of his district than Nick did of his (correct me if I’m wrong there, because I haven’t looked at the maps, just going from memory).
I’m also skeptical of Dave Brady being able to win. He’s been away for a long time, and he doesn’t come across as any ball of fire.
My take:
Insurance Commissioner – Crane 54, KWS 30, Spivack 10, Gallagher 6.
Wilmington Mayoral Race – Williams 40, Kelley 25, Montgomery 25, Bovell 5, Spencer 1
SD 1 McDowell/Brady/Martin – Brady 50, McDowell 45, Martin 5
SD 6 Miller/Frederick/Staton – Staton 50, Frederick 40, Miller 10
SD 11 DeLuca/Townsend – Townsend 51, DeLuca 49
RD 15 Longhurst/Burton – Longhurst 65, Burton 35
RD 19 Dunn/Williams – Dunn 55, Williams 45
RD 23 Baumbach/Bock/Grant – Grant 40, Baumbach 35, Bock 25
RD 32 McGlumphey/Bennett- McGlumphey 60, Bennett 40
On McDowell-Brady — Harris hurt by increasing suburbanization of the district; however, Brady’s base is still Claymont, and Claymont isn’t getting any bigger, nor has Dave done much lately to keep himself in the public eye. And, as Geez suggests, Brady can be sleep-inducing.
I still think you guys overestimate Dunn v Williams. Her work door to door in school board races over the past two years has given her name recognition, and she literally owns the community in and around Conrad. Granted, it’s her first time out into a partisan election, but you can bet she’s out there knocking on doors
Miro has been a lump on a log with 20 rings. Both seats were handed to him. Manolakos beat party-endorsed incumbent.
Subtext will be women’s choice. Miro virulently anti-abortion. Manolakos a candid pro-choice moderate [who supported medical MJ and civil unions].
RD 32 McGlumphey/Bennett- McGlumphey 60, Bennett 40 ?
That’s givign RD32 voters too much credit. (Full disclosure: McGlunphey ran the Kent County Parks and Rec Saturday floor hockey program that I used to play in 35 years ago.)
Steve, I defer to you on knowing the district. I know that Deb Heffernan was helped in 2010 by the name recognition she had from her school and school board activities.
@John well if that is true Miro is out . . . my s/o will be told not to vote for him . . . !!!!
Agree w/Steve Newton on Dunn/Williams. Williams was elected to the school board, so, while Dunn might have slightly more name recognition county-wide, Williams might well have it within the district. I’d make her the favorite.
And, having worked for the legislature for a long time, I still have some R friends who work there. They think Miro will win, and that he’s worked harder than Manolakos during their respective time in Dover. They could be wrong, but that’s what they think.
I’m also not ready by any stretch to anoint Brady the favorite yet in the 1st SD, although an upset is possible.
Also, at the risk of pissing off Paul Baumbach, who I like, word is that Bock may be the top challenger to Grant. She’s got a lot of support from the education community.
ElS–will DL invite each of the 3 primary candidates for the 23rd RD to interviews, and maintain audio of each on your site (and presumably do the same for some of the other races)?
Based on my two months’ of door knocking in the 23rd, I know for certain that I know nothing about voters’ views outside the 23rd. I have learned volumes from listening to voters in the 23rd, and believe that no one who hasn’t gone door-to-door in a district can have a valuable take on how that district is leaning.
I have had a few voters tell me ‘Claudia is a friend of mine and therefore I am supporting her.’ I have had no one tell me ‘I am a teacher and therefore I am voting for Claudia.’ Rather, most of the teachers that I have met in the district (and there are indeed many) are extremely supportive of the fresh ideas for education reform that I share at their doors.
Paul-It’s possible. Quite frankly, we had hoped to do more of this. That old ‘other jobs’ bugaboo keeps getting in our way.
Upset Special: Dave Brady wins over McDowell. The turtle beats the
Hare-iss!
Mayor’s Race:
Dennis P. Williams already strongly endorsed by city cops and city firefighters, and several labor unions.
And the powerful black clergy endorsement today. Very strong plus for DPW.Kelley is picking up some of the vote of those who can’t stomach voting for Bill Montgomery after 12 long years of arrogance, public safety failure, and insider deals on 9th floor.
From DL’s coverage of the 23rd, it seems to be 33-1/3 to 33-1/3 to 33-1/3.
Maybe they can go to Dover on alternating days.
Anyone have an estimate on how many city police officers and firefighters live in the City these days?
Bill Dunn has also ran for and won a seat on the Red Clay School Board so that may be a wash in advantage for either.
And Bill’s cultivated relationships as an officer in the CLNCC and MCLA, building a solid reputation for expertise in assisting with strategies for civic associations as they grasp for how to respond to problems with potential county development plans (Acierno at Possum Park, Toll Bros. at Hercules, Stoltz at Barley Mill etc.).
Also, you all will be interested that DeLuca and his opponent will be attending the CLNCC state and county primary forum on August 21st in Bear (see DE Way for deets) as will the NCC Exec etc.
And here is a sample of Jim Martin’s website:
http://martincampaign.org/editorials.html
I don’t know how much of a shot he’ll have against McDowell/Brady but he is a great guy whom I have known since he was treasurer for Dalto in the race against Tom Wagner in 2006.
If anyone deserves to win my district rep. race (23rd) it is Paul!!!!!!
Jason330,
I never knew you were organizing bets for political races. Watch out for the Mayoral race in Wilmington that’s where the attention is going to be out of all the races.
I saw a Bob Frederick sign the other day. It was very cluttered with words, and I couldn’t read any of them except “Bob Frederick.”
Who can read a novel while whizzing by at 60mph? Still have not seen a single Staton sign. Mike Miller signs I have seen.
If more people knew that Urquhart’s signs are almost exclusively on the Hudson properties imagine how embarrassing that would be. There’s one of those giant Urquhart signs with his head shot on it right outside of my community. I REALLY want sneak out there and attach a word balloon that says, “Ask your friends why they’re Nazis!”
Saw a Paul Gallagher sign today – on a Hudson property.
Chlorophil – was it on Savannah Road? That’s the only one I’ve seen.
I had a robocall from Gallagher the other night — Tues or Weds, not sure which day.
SussexWatcher, if Satan said he was a Republican, Christian Hudson would have a sign saying “God wants you to vote Republican….vote Satan.”
BTW, the infamous “repeal Obamacare” sign has returned to the Hudson Management office.
I can’t remember where I saw the Frederick sign. Hmm, where was I? I just don’t remember. I’ll pay better attention on my normal commute to see if it was along that route or if it was when I was doing something else.
There are only a couple of Frederick signs around. I recognize them because they are the most difficult sign to read.
Andy Staton just got his signs in a week or so ago and has begun distrubuting them to people. Andys signs are mostly going to people to put in their own yards. Not vacant lots.
Urkles signs are every where usually on vacant lots and empty buildings. Running the “empty lot, empty ideas” campaign strategy.
Kelley will win the city. He’s running an incredible grass roots effort. All over the place. It will be major a upset.
Kelley could have won City Council President’s race. But Kelley will likely come in second in Mayor’s race, clipping Montgomery and all his big developer money. On the ground, Kelley has some issues in his own district and does not have full suppport in own backyard.
There are also New Castle County races that will affect how our local government! I’d love to see some numbers on the Gordon-Clark showdown or the county council races – I know John Cartier has an opponent
Rooting for Spivack, Clark, Kelley, Bock, K.Williams, Townsend, Cartier, Walsh, Prado. Primarily because this is Delaware and I know them. I know Manolakos, and think he has the edge.
You know Clark and you’re still rooting for him?
I’m for Clark and I have met him and I like him. Gordon on his own was very nice, but I wasn’t impressed by the people with him. They could have been very nice but just gave me a bad feeling. I vote issues and my gut.
Personally I am against organizational endorsements altogether. Once someone tells me who I am supposed to vote for, it gets me anger, but I like Paul, I think we are doing ok up here in NCC compared to the nation and I don’t think the other candidates will do as well.