Delaware Political Weekly: Sept. 8-14, 2012
Let’s first dispense with the ‘just the facts’ portion of this magnum opus:
http://elections.delaware.gov/results/html/election.shtml.
Now let me tell you what I think about those facts:
1. The Gordon machine was the single most effective game-changer during the primary.
Gordon/Bullock/Dennis P. Williams/KWS, for starters. Slates can still work if there are the bodies to work for those slates. Assuming Gordon is elected, and I think he will be, you can look for a more ‘city-centric’ county government. Specifically, I have to think that there is already at least some sort of implicit understanding that county police will assist Mayor Williams in addressing some of the city’s ongoing violent crime issues. Now, whether this turns out to be a good thing remains to be seen. BTW, I know that some of my like-minded colleagues believe that Gordon and/or KWS can be defeated in November. I think it’s unlikely. Why? Obama, blue state, presidential year, lots more D’s, discouraged R’s, so-called ‘lower-information voters’ who tend to vote straight tickets. I think Gordon is more secure than KWS. He did, after all, get something like 45% in a 4-way primary, while KWS got 33% in a 4-way primary. IC candidate Mobley’s at least got a shot. Mark Blake? I’m thinking not so much.
2. For once, Wilmington really made the difference this year.
You know that old saw about the ‘exception that proves the rule’? This year, Wilmington voters made the difference in several races. Turnout was significantly higher than normal in the City, and significantly higher than in other subdivisions throughout the state. The impact was most profound on the county races. As we know, elections have consequences. Which is why I, for one, will have no problem if the county partners with the city more than had happened under Paul Clark. Wilmington could use the assistance and, oh, did I mention that elections have consequences?
3. Grassroots campaigns work, and they cost a lot less than the alternative.
That’s why Bryan Townsend was likely outspent 4-1 by Tony DeLuca, and still got 58% of the vote. It probably would have been over 70% of the vote had it not been for the self-styled power brokers who circled the wagons around Tiny Tony. Now, let me explain what I mean by a grassroots campaign. They are volunteer/candidate-driven campaigns run from the ground up. The candidate and volunteers directly interact with the voters, persuade voters through multiple direct contacts, identify supporters, and get them out to vote/volunteer on election day. One huge plus with grassroots campaigns is that you effectively expand your volunteer base as you’re ID’ing voters. Jack Markell ran a grassroots operation in 2008, which is why he was able to defeat the top-down endorsement-laden campaign of John Carney. I firmly believe that, had Mitch Crane’s campaign harnessed the enthusiastic volunteers who were excited by his candidacy, he easily would have won the IC race. Anyway, that grassroots organization is firmly in place for Bryan Townsend, which is one reason why I expect him to win handily in November.
4. Jack Markell is in danger of becoming a Drawbridge Democrat.
When you develop and harness an enthusiastic grassroots volunteer organization, and when you become everything you ran against the next time around and effectively turn your back on the grassroots that got you elected, you shouldn’t expect to retain grassroots support. People feel like they were used. You want to be the imperious Overlord and lift up the drawbridge after you’ve been granted entry to the castle? Fine. Just don’t look for us to canvass, make calls, write letters, etc. This year, Jack became what he campaigned against in 2008. More than a little of his luster has been lost as a result. Something tells me that the Jack Pack will be travellin’ a lot lighter this year. On merit.
5. Kind of a corollary to #2: Tons of lit cannot compensate for personal unpopularity.
Both Paul Clark and Tony DeLuca demonstrated this truism. And they had no grassroots campaign to compensate. I do consider the Gordon campaign to be a grassroots effort, as he had enthusiastic supporters who went out and worked for him. Granted, many of them represented organized constituencies, but they were enthusiastic and they campaigned like it. As far as lit, I think that the $$’s spent in the Gordon/Clark race were largely wasted. There was a point where even I stopped looking and just tossrd the stuff away. If the lit isn’t moving voters, then more and more lit won’t move them either. I’m not disparaging the use of campaign literature (one of the best oxymorons of all time). Used judiciously, it’s an effective component of a well-rounded campaign. I’m just pointing out that it is no substitute for a real outreach campaign. As Tony DeLuca learned.
6. Primaries are GOOD.
This probably should be #1. I want choices. I don’t want a party to dictate my choices to me. As a progressive and someone who despises the incestuousness of the Delaware Way, I want to vote for candidates who offer up the possibility of credible change. While I did not get that choice in every single race this time around, I had enough options to make me want to come out to vote. I think they’re good for the Party. Even though turnouts are relatively small, they’re not microscopic as we saw on the R side. They galvanize volunteers, they help prepare volunteers for bigger roles in electoral politics down the line, they keep voters interested, and they keep politicians, um, as honest as they can be. Participatory democracy requires the opportunity to participate. And, for all this talk about fissures in the Party, I see very little irreparable wreckage coming out of the primaries.
7. My best and worst picks.
I clearly missed big with Taschner vs. Bullock. Did not understand the degree to which Gordon/Bullock ran as a ticket and, as previously stated, completely underestimated the city turnout. Since Bullock has generally been more, um, contemplative (read: not scorched earth) about how to deal with the city’s crime problem than many, he could play an important role in lending some, um, restraint to plans on how to address that problem.
Townsend over DeLuca, clearly. I hedged my bets on the numbers (53-47) only b/c I just couldn’t predict what impact the Delaware Way despots would have on the race. But, everything I saw suggested that it would be a wider gap than that, and it was, 58-42.
Overall record: 22-5 (.815). Other incorrect picks: IC, SD 19 (I had Booth over Bodie), RD 23 (I had Jerry Grant over Paul Baumbach), and RD 40 (I had Adkins over Lowe in a meaningless primary).
That’s it for this week. What did I miss, and whaddayathink?
Tags: Ben Mobley Delaware, Bryan Townsend Delaware, Chris Bullock Delaware, El Somnambulo, Gov. Jack Markell, Steve Tanzer Delaware, Tom Gordon Delaware, Tony DeLuca Delaware
For those who want to check off your own scorecards, here were my predictions:
http://delawareliberal.net//2012/09/04/el-somnambulo-predicts-em-all-for-you-part-1/
http://delawareliberal.net//2012/09/05/el-somnambulo-predicts-em-almost-all-for-you-part-2/
Submitted in the interest of transparency…
El Som, Take a deep breath. The political reality is that Jack will not need a Jack pack this year. He isn’t the outsider, (and to be honest he was only an outsider in that race by fluke of circumstances.) I don’t feel duped for having knocked on doors. I wanted the better candidate to win and that’s what happened.
I agree that the DeLuca endorsment sucked, but I guarantee that Brian Townsend will not be holding a grudge. Not if he wants a career in politics anyway.
“Brian Townsend will not be holding a grudge. Not if he wants a career in politics anyway.”
Agreed. Jack still has the imprint of his tiara on his combover after his anti-Flowers tantrum.
I don’t feel duped for embracing his grassroots campaign. I feel duped b/c he’s become what he ran against.
He won’t need the Jack Pack this year. But he may when he seeks another office, and I, for one, won’t be part of it.
Bryan Townsend will not hold a grudge, he’s not a scorched earth guy, far from it. But he will be a realist when it comes to this governor. Meaning at a minimum, “Trust, but verify.”
Wouldn’t hurt for the Gov. to personally deliver a check, either…which, no doubt, he will.
Stay golden Pony Boy. Stay golden. I love you El Somnabulo and wish I had your heart.
Slates can still work if there are the bodies and a river of street money to work for those slates.
Fixed that for you, El Som.
El Som–no worries on your 23rd call–it was indeed a close race with great candidates. Unlike the IC and CtyExec races, however, the primary was not a scorched-earth circular firing squad. There wasn’t a single negative lit piece. This is how Democratic primaries can strengthen the party and the candidate/campaign.
As always, thanks for your insight.
By the way, I think that there is a difference between the ‘record’ of endorsers versus predictors. Endorsers (the Governor, PDD, DSEA, etc) should not be judged as ‘accurate’ or ‘inaccurate’ the way a predictor should. Rather endorsers can be judged as reflecting the voters well or less well, as of a particular election.
That said, I know that I for one appreciate both input from endorsers and the insight from predictors.
What is the disappointment with Markell? What did he flip flop on?
I have a source that has told me that the most organized ground game on Tuesday belonged to Chris Bullock. KWS and Gordon rode the Bullock machine to victory, not the other way around.
“..disappointment with Markell?”
There’s some ‘stuff’.
Al of your sources were wrong the whole primary . . . they still are wrong . . . Gordon ran a grassroots campaign . . . he earned his win and he worked very hard for it . . . you guys may not ever vote him and that is your right . . . fact is he won. He had a great set of volunteers who worked their asses off! He knocked on doors and he answered a whole lot of questions. He didn’t back down when he was asked about his past and he was asked about it OFTEN . . . he took the time to answer ANY and ALL questions and he apologized one on one to those who mattered the most – – the voters! He surrounded himself with great people running for office with genuine grassroots campaigns too . . . that also sat down and talked to the voters . . . those are called Winners not machines!!
What Linda said;) …… Geek your ” Sources” reside in your cranium.
“What Linda said”
Were you out knocking on doors with him, too?
Linda: I’d be interested in what the apology sounded like. And last time I looked, we were voters, too.
Geezer no matter what is said and done you will never be appeased . . . Your personal vendetta is transparent and whether you admit it or not that is exactly what it is “a personal vendetta”. You can white wash it all you want but your opinion is your opinion and it is set in stone and will NEVER change. Yes you are a voter and I never suggested that you were not . . .
Yeah, just answer the question, Linda. What did the apology sound like?
By the way, if we’re going to start in on judging people based on their political opinions, then you’re just a disgruntled, Not In My Backyard jerk who wants to prevent landowners from developing their private property because it would inconvenience them — a selfish jerk of a privileged class. You and Gordon go well together.
I already said what would appease me: Apologies. You can’t redeem yourself without one. So let’s hear what it sounds like, or does it exist only in your power-slut mind?
Yeah me and Sandra Fluke . . . LOL. No I will not answer your question . . . I prefer to remain a not in my backyard jerk landowner with some dignity than to ever kowtow to a bully like you!!!
Aw, did I hurt your wittle feewings?
You don’t even know how to read. A power-slut is someone attracted to powerful people — the Jill Biden sort. It has nothing to do with your sex life.
Meanwhile, you won’t answer the question because you’re lying. There were no apologies.
hahahahahahaha . . . get a life . . . quit obsessing . . . have a nice day . . .
ha ha indeed. You wrote, I answered. Have a nice day yourself, and keep your eyes open for Frank Acierno. He never gives up. You’ll be shopping in his shopping center before you know it.
By the way, Linda, you really CAN’T read. El Som clearly wrote, “I do consider the Gordon campaign to be a grassroots effort, as he had enthusiastic supporters who went out and worked for him.”
Linda responded, “All of your sources were wrong the whole primary . . . they still are wrong . . . Gordon ran a grassroots campaign”
And how is it that Tom Gordon is the one who won’t stop running for the office, but I’m the one who’s obsessed?
Jack Markell campaigned as if he would honor the environmental legacy of Russ Peterson but has, instead, accumulated an assortment of positions to the contrary. There are appearing to be fishy things happening under Markell’s Order #36 regarding Regulations overhaul.
DNREC, DP&L and McDowell convincing the legislature to vote – as an economic necessity in getting the deal with Bloom – that natural gas is a sustainable energy source was one surprise out of the administration.
What has just surfaced is a file titled “DNREC is Ignoring the Coastal Zone Regulations”. It’s filled with evidence that the Natural Resources Department is willfully ignoring the law – again justifying their actions by the promise of economic development and ‘since the law is outmoded’.
There’s a memo circulating that is going to be posted on the Civic League for NCC web site that includes this comment from Vic Singer:
“Neither the Secretary nor the Governor have the authority to ignore laws and regulations that THEY ARE UNDER OATH TO UPHOLD. They have all the authority they need to amend and alter existing laws and/or regulations that they disagree with, FOLLOWING PROCEDURES ESTABLISHED BY LAW. Until they do so regarding the Coastal Zone Regulation, they must apply it as it is written. ”
“Colin argues that there are economic reasons for regarding the Coastal Zone Regulation as outmoded. There are also many reasons for regarding it as FAR FROM OUTMODED. Indeed, many of those reasons support honoring it and implementing it BECAUSE it has the force of law.”
That was in response to this:
“Spoke with Colin and sent him the emails. He claims that there were economic reasons why the approach was changed. The findings did not support the cost. He said that this will be an issue that they would like to look at as part of the Governor’s executive order to review all regulations and identify any that seem to thwart business and do not necessarily protect quality of life or the consumer. He would like your input on this and believes that this provides a good opportunity to address the concerns raised.”
I will link to the documents when they’re up.
What fishy things, Nancy?
I thought Downes was running against Simpson again. Anyone know why not?
Don Ayotte said he spent only $3000 on the primary. I can’t stand the guy, but that is impressive.
In certain City districts plain and simple street money is what wins the primary.
I’ve yet to hear a definition of street money that doesn’t boil down to bribes.
“Don Ayotte said he spent only $3000 on the primary. I can’t stand the guy, but that is impressive.”
In what way? What did his opponent spend?
Some candidates don’t know what their opponent spent because they never filed campaign finance reports.
In Ayotte’s case, we know the GOP turnout was very low. With those who live by red meat issues: Pro Sheriff, anti-civilization, anti-well whatever. In that regard Don was more visible than his opponent, who I cannot even name off the top of my head.
Deaver is well liked but I hope folks don’t take her re-election for granted since the turnout on Nov 6 is likely to be very high. I intend to vote early and often.
Wilmington will again be a great and safe city. The right people were elected to save our city!!!!!!!!!!!!
Saveourcity, you are wrong.
A few are OK, but the right people were not elected all around.
@Pooker jones–Saveourcity, you are wrong. A few are OK, but the right people were not elected all around.
Okay, who did you want to win????
The City Democrats in an off year election- 2010 exceeded the expectations in the General Election – by over 20% of the expected goal- go ask the State Chair.- So that is at least two in a row- the City in he last 5 primary election cycles have exceeded their registered Democratic numbers in contested County wide races-