BOOM goes The Polling Report [9.14.12]

Three new NBC/Marist polls came out yesterday in Ohio, Virginia and Florida, giving the President 5 point leads in Virginia and Florida and a 7 point lead in Ohio. Mitt Romney must win all three states or there is no conceivable mathematical way he can be elected President. The President can win without these three. And that really is the story of this election. In Mitt Romney’s best case scenario where he wins all his swing state targets, his ceiling in the Electoral College is 291. The President’s best case scenario is 399 (winning all the usual suspects plus Montana, Arizona, Missouri, Indiana, Georgia and Nebraska’s 1 congressional district).

Here is the map:

NATIONAL POLLS
NATIONAL–New York Times/CBS News: Obama 49, Romney 46

“Mr. Obama has an advantage among likely voters of 12 percentage points among women, the poll found, while Mr. Romney holds the upper hand among men by 8 percentage points. Mr. Obama leads his Republican rival across all ages of voters, except those who are 65 or older, who favor Mr. Romney by 15 percentage points.”

NATIONAL–Democracy Corps–D: Obama 50, Romney 45
NATIONAL–Gallup Tracking: Obama 50, Romney 44
NATIONAL–Ipsos-Reuters Tracking: Obama 48, Romney 41 (LV); Obama 45, Romney 39 (RV)
NATIONAL–Langer Research for Esquire/Yahoo!: Obama 50, Romney 46 (LV); Obama 52 Romney 41 (RV)
NATIONAL–Rasmussen Tracking: Romney 47, Obama 46

I see Rasmussen is back to being Rasmussen. Which one of these is not like the others, kids?

STATE POLLS
CALIFORNIA–Pepperdine University: Obama 55, Romney 33
COLORADO–American Research Group: Obama 49, Romney 47)
COLORADO–Keating/OnSight: Obama 49, Romney 44

Ah, conflicting polls. The ARG poll was conducted between 9/10 and 9/12. I have no details on when the Keating poll was performed, but it was performed after the DNC and released Thursday. Since Keating is a outfit run by former Democratic campaign operatives, I will break the tie in favor of ARG. So Colorado remains a Slim Obama state for now.

FLORIDA–NBC/Marist: Obama 49, Romney 44 (LV); Obama 50, Romney 42 (RV)

This is a devastating poll. So Romney staffers drank themselves to sleep last night. Florida moves to Lean Obama.

MINNESOTA–(PPP): Obama d. Romney (51-44

From Strong Obama yesterday to Lean Obama today. At least it’s a 7 point lead.

MISSOURI–Rasmussen: Romney 48, Obama 45

Yes, this a Rasmussen poll, and yes, I am going against my own rule and counting it in the map. Why? Well, as we all know, Rasmussen has a Republican bias. So if their biased poll is only showing a 3 point lead for Romney in Missouri, then I think we should pay attention to it.

NEW HAMPSHIRE–Univ. of New Hampshire: Obama 45, Romney 40

New Hampshire stays eccentric and stays Lean Obama.

NEW YORK–Quinnipiac: Obama 62, Romney 34

Is there a Landslide Obama category? Nearly a 30 point lead in New York!

OHIO–NBC/Marist: Obama 50, Romney 43 (LV); Obama 50, Romney 41 (RV)
VIRGINIA–NBC/Marist: Obama 49, Romney 44 (LV); Obama 49, Romney 42 (RV)

SENATE POLLS
FLORIDA–NBC/Marist: Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 51, Connie Mack IV (R) 37
MISSOURI–Rasmussen: Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) 49, Todd Akin (R) 43
NEW YORK–Quinnipiac: Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) 64, Wendy Long (R) 27
OHIO–NBC/Marist: Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 49, Josh Mandel (R) 42
VIRGINIA–NBC/Marist: Tim Kaine (D) 46, George Allen (R) 46

GOVERNOR POLLS
MONTANA–PPP: Steve Bullock (D) 44, Rick Hill (R) 39