Could A Conservative Uprising Really Hurt Mike Castle?
The videos I posted earlier today continue to occupy my thoughts because I think they are telling of something surprising. Something I had not anticipated. The stridency of the craziness is making me thing that an organized, energetic primary challenge to Mike Castle from the right might make some headway.
Knowing that he is going to have to run as a Democratic (if he runs) Castle has recently invited to crazies in his party to go berserk. Recently with his vote on “Cap & Trade” and prior to that he was talking about closing the gun show loop hole.
Do insane Republican primary voters outnumber the sane? If not, could enough of the O’Donnell partisans actually capture lightning in a bottle or catch the liberal Republicans who idolize Mike Castle sleeping?
I wonder.
And it comes back to hating on the pretty one.
Who dissed you for prom, Fat J?
C’mon, open up and let it go……after all, eventually you found someone to love that dowdy baconfat….what’s she have, 20/2000 vision?
Do you have anything to offer but insults concerning Jason and his wife. This is your official warning. One more comment like the above and you will be banned.
Returning to the point of the post, it occurs to me that Castle might actually see an upside to getting into a dust-up primary w/ shrieking nutbag wing of his party.
It will certainly help him position himself as “the other Democrat Party choice” during the general.
Yes, but it takes a spine to do that, to battle your own party base. And the more he does it, the stronger the anger of the base towards him becomes, and thus the more likely a challenge would be successful. I can see Castle pulling a Lieberman. He is as wishy washy as Lieberman.
You raise an interesting point. I disagree with your characterization that anyone that disagrees with your loony leftist thinking is insane. 🙂 Instead of playing the characterization game, let’s get to your point.
In the GOP, Mr. Castle’s support is soft. Anyone running against him would start with 25% of the party and that was before Cap and Tax and the gun show flap. He had 30% that did not approve the job he does doing and only commanded 75% of his party in a match up against a Biden. Republicans tend to vote 90 to 95% for other Republicans in big races. If you drill down to look at the strongly approve numbers and the strongly disapprove numbers which are relevant in a primary, you would see that a well organized primary effort could dump him.
Since the Cap and Trade vote, I have had Republicans come up to me in the store and say that we have to get rid of Castle. The anger is intense and people who would have lightly approved of him in the March and May polls, do not any longer. One more vote off the reservation and he has virtually no chance. He offended pro-lifers, pro-gunners, pro-business, and pro-Iraq war republicans. That is why he is raising virtually no money from individuals in Delaware. This year the club for growth could take him out.
Blue v. Red
It is a numbers game. Is he trying to squeak through a primary in order to have a better statewide branding? That is nuts. The more I think about the more I think he is done with politics.
BTW – How the hell did he offend ” pro-Iraq war republicans” when he voted with Bush nearly 100% of the time?
He voted for a resolution which called for President Bush not to pursue the surge, and called for the ISG recommendation. He also voted for an appropriations amendment to that effect.
He heard enough from home that he reversed himself and sustained the veto. Then supported the bill that gave the President his money.
Let’s remember that Con. Castle only won 55% of the primary in 1992. He didn’t get a majority in either Kent or Sussex. 18 years later in 2010, the majority of Republican votes will come from the lower counties. Let him go around campaigning that Man Made Global Warming is real in the primary. He the warming he will find will be the flames taking down his career. The calls are ran against cap and tax even with heavy TV advertising urging people up north to call in favor of it.
The weight of his record is going to come close to taking him down. If any money comes in, he won’t survive.
Why dontcha jes round me up, Del Dem?
“Do you have anything to offer but insults concerning Jason and his wife.”
Any less insulting than what I read here concerning John McCain and his wife?
Feel free to join us in 2009.
This is interesting, and I’m really interested in David’s perspective. My feeling is that a significant number of Republicans registered Democratic to vote for Markell. I don’t know if they’ve switched back. I think it all depends on how much of the remaining Republican base is the hard-core right wing base, which is much more motivated to vote in a primary than the casual voters.
“Feel free to join us in 2009.”
As soon as you update your haircut from 1988.
David is spot on as Castle has lost a lot of support.
Conservatives (40% of voters versus 22% liberal) are not wingnuts because they do not want to strangle the U S economy with a Cap and Trade bill which will not work and are seriously concerned about the runaway spending and rampant taxation the Dems are throwing our way.
In the end the GOP will have to decide principle over convenience.
Mike Protack
DD – go ahead and ban podolo. He doesn’t offer anything of substance. Let him go and waste time with RWR on his blog.
David does offer a good insight into some GOP thinking. Many of the teabaggers in Georgetown at the last “protest” had signs knocking Castle as well as the President.
As I’ve posted many times before, Castle is now eligible for his full congressional pension (about 65% of what his high-3 annual salary has been), so he doesn’t need the work. Along with his state pension, he’ll live quite comfortably.
Mike P,
When Castle runs as a Democrat (for all intents and purposes) the meaningless stat you keep siting (40% of voters are conservative versus 22% liberal) will be put to a serious test.
Thanks U. I. This post is too interesting to let it get sidetracked with a grudge match. I actually wrote a post on this, but it will not publish until noon Sunday.
The Republican Party is more conservative than 18 years ago. The people who switched to vote for Markell accelerated that trend. The ones who moved back were more conservative. I think that Castle’s 55% in 1992 is not there in those numbers anymore. I think that if he votes wrong (by Republican Dogma standards) on one more significant issue he will face a pitchfork revolution.
Potential landmines include Democrat healthcare legislation, Freedom of Choice Act (FOCA), repeal of the defense of marriage act (DOMA), National Gay rights (ENDA), and the Republican tax alternative. He may have already sustained too much damage with the Embryonic Stem cell bill, Cap and tax, and his attack on gun shows, but he has a lot of good will with in the party and there is a resignation among many that we may still need him. Why get rid of one of the two guys that you have left goes the refrain.
Colorado, far from being a liberal bastion (save for Denver, Boulder, and Aspen), passed a gun show loophole in the aftermath of Columbine. The politicians who opposed this initiative were the ones who actually suffered at the ballot box. Many conservatives in Colorado Springs and the Eastern Plains actually supported the law. I think the only ones in Sussex who would use this against Castle are the SCCOR nuts and Legion Post 28.
Interestingly Jason, 45% of Democrats approve of Castle vs.39% disapproval.
David does offer a good insight into some GOP thinking.
Only of the hard core 21%ers, I would think. The Chateau Country Rs are probably as appalled as everyone else by what real wingnuts managed by their TVs and radios can actually look like.
MJ, Columbine was a long time ago. VA did not have the same response in the aftermath of Virginia Tech. The NRA has a very strong organization and they know who all of their voters are. Ask Larry Sullivan how effective they are in a GOP primary. That is why we had AG Jane Brady. If you have an alliance between the tea party crowd, the NRA, the Pro-life/family groups, and the Club for Growth, I don’t see anyone standing up against it in the primary.
David,
When you publish your post, leave a link in the threads. I’d love to read it.
If you have an alliance between the tea party crowd, the NRA, the Pro-life/family groups, and the Club for Growth
I think in Delaware, these are all the same 14 people.
Cass, I don’t claim to speak for all Republicans but I am one of the guys that helped move the Delaware Party right. In 1992, a pro-life resolution to back the national platform won only 15% of the Delaware state convention. I headed up the RNC for Life Chapter in Delaware to change it. Our goal was to get a solid 41% so that we could stop the endorsement of candidates who did not give us some sort of nod. We identified voters and got them involved.
By the time I stopped offering resolutions we were passing them with a majority vote. My endorsement seems worth at least 20% of the convention vote. I may not matter a lot on a personal level, but my opinions do matter because they are in line with 60% of the rank and file and half of the convention.
My LiberalGeek friend, I personally filled more tables than that at a Delaware Family Foundation breakfast with 2 days notice. We are going to surprise you.
Science News Blogger, Tom Nelson picked up on the level of anger in he video.
Nelson’s recap is coldly clinical:
“At the 4:12 mark, a speaker says that he hopes Castle loses his Congressional seat over his support of cap and trade, and the crowd cheers. Castle smiles briefly, then his face grows grim.”
Yes, that was the part that caught my attention as well. Like you said in your other post it depends on how big a part of the Delaware Republican party these people are. I’d have to say that if Castle is on the fence, this meeting certainly would affect his decision.
David – the NRA tried to sink Jack Markell in the primary last year with a last minute pink postcard campaign (as in Jack is a pinko and he supports gays, as well as wanting to take our guns). It didn’t work as Jack not only carried Sussex in the primary, but in the general election as well. They are not as strong as they think they are when intelligent people organize against them.
Columbine was only 10 years ago; it’s still pretty fresh in a lot of our minds. Just watching the news this morning out of B’more – this one convicted of a double murder, another one shot and killed, a 5 year old shot and wounded, on and on and on. Personally, I think people are just getting sick and tired of the killing. And don’t give us the BS “guns don’t kill people…….” line. Guns kill!!
Did I miss something or was Gov.Markell running in the Democrat primary against the heir apparent of Gov. Minner? He had business support.
I am not debating gun control in this post. It is off subject so I won’t give you any “BS” or facts for that matter. I hope you are not offended, but I am discussing the political dynamics within the GOP. You don’t really believe that Markell could have won in a GOP primary do you?
MJ is playing the hysteria card.
Your typical would-be ‘gun grabber’ is also a ‘thug hugger’.
Airhead Susan Sarandon falls in such a category.
Simplistic statements such as ‘guns kill’ usually come from people who would run from an open debate on the subject.
What sort of gun did Ted Bundy use to kill his victims?
When there was an attempt to liberalize the concealed carry law in Delaware, one of the loudest opponents was a convicted thief and killer who became a ‘preacher man’ and active Obama supporter.
I am thinking if someone farther to the right than Castle were to primary him for US Rep or US Senate, Castle would win the primary. In recent statewide Republican primaries they have not had upset victories like Markell & Weldin-Stewart had in the Democratic primary in 2008. Doesn’t mean it can’t happen. I just don’t think it is likely.
Jan Ting, who had never held public office, won with 42% in a 3 way primary in 2006.I am thinking if it had been a 2 way primary between him and either O’Donnell or Protack ,enough of the supporters of whichever one did not run would not have voted at all and Ting may have gotten a majority.
Castle brings 32 years of statewide public service. While the issues are an important part, I have not seen mentioned constituent service and my guess is his staff has performed enough constituent service over the last 32 years to sway hundreds of votes (which could be the margin of victory in a close race with low voter turnout).
Sounds reasonable. Although your Ting analysis is seems off to me. O’Donnell looked like a classic spoiler, taking just enough votes away from Protack to give Ting the win.
But that points to another problem with the idea of a conservative insurgency. The high profile conservatives in DE have ZERO credibility. And yet, movement conservatives are not about being reasonable or credible, so strange things could happen.
I will have to research the specifics,but I seem to recall O’Donnell or some of her supporters questioning the commitment of Protack’s Pro-Life stance which as I recall might be a little more nuanced than O’Donnell’s stance. And voters with a strong sense of fervor might not come out if they perceived Protack as “moderate lite”.Sometimes political purists on any point on the political spectrum can get turned off by nuance.I am not talking about whether Protack or O’Donnell is or isn’t anything,but perceptions of them which I think can mean as much in electoral politics at times. It’s been four years, so I apologize if my recollection is inaccurate.I will try to research this some this week.
Note that the one gun bill that was seriously considered this year by the Legislature had heavy NRA backing. It passed without dissent and was signed by Markell.
The Democrats know how to step over a third rail.
No shit Sherlock. Just as “the gays are okay” issue has been won by liberals, the “gun’s for everyone even criminals” fight has been fought and won by the NRA everyone knows that except people who make a living from pretending it is still an unsettled issue.
‘Twould be interesting: if Mr Castle, who has been so vilified by the main bloggers on this fine site, were to run for re-election as a Democrat, as Jason suggested, would Jason and DD and the rest of the Delaware Liberals vote for him? 🙂
If he runs he will run posing as a Democrat – in order to try and win. However, if he switched parties (a step he has said he would never take) the answer to your question is HELL NO!
To answer Dana’s question, Hell, no!
Can one of the ‘Progressives’ tell me what they mean by ‘gun show loophole’? How does it work?
How does a legislature ‘pass one’ (as some poster claim)?
I also ask anyone who responds about their first hand experiences at gun shows? It has been several years since I attended one but memories are rather vague.
There is a lot of intellectual dishonesty on this issue from the ‘progressive’ quarter but it might be merely hysteria and ignorance.
“intellectual dishonesty on this issue from the ‘progressive’ quarter”
Love that!
You just accurately described every Democrat from 1960 forward!
So it seems that Delusional David moving the repubs here to the right coincides with the local repubs beginning to lose their electoral mojo. Makes sense, especially here.
Art,
Take up your gun show loop hole jihad with Castle’s office. According to the video he reads his emails.
Gun show loophole is a misnomer, kind of like “pro-life” is a misnomer.
It refers to private sales that evade sensible regulations such as background checks.
Sorry gang, Castle is here to stay. If even Jason w/ well documented “contempt” for the congressman felt a twinge of angst for him in the Sussex clip–imagine what the rest of Delaware has to stay. He has given us reasonable social change, and yes I’m ticked w/ some of the financial moves of the last 6 months. But really readers, he is visible, responsive, affable and capable. Has been for a LLOONNGGG time. I really don’t think most voters are going to pin this whole financial debacle on a guy, who for the most part has done the job….when they look at the amateurs wanting to take the field. AND there is plenty of time to still tweak, and introduce/re-introduce legislation mitigating bad legislation. Sit tight.
Dana,
I echo the HELL NO! of Jason and nemski. I would spend money and time supporting a candidate against him in a Democratic primary, in fact. I wouldn’t vote for him in the general no matter what party he labels himself as.
I do almost feel sorry for him, but he made his bed and now he has to lie in it.
I agree JC that Castle is still favored to win the race if he decides to enter. However, he has a really fine line to walk if he tries to pander to the hard core rightwing and mainstream Delaware voters at the same time. The only question is whether there are enough of the hard core rightwing voters in the Republican party to make Castle’s tightrope walking impossible.
Mainstream Delaware voters will trump hard core right wing. And in time right wing will trump, hard core right wing. We just need more of the 82nd and less of the kamikazes.
Joanne,
Mainstream Democrats won’t get to vote in the Republican primary. I doubt there are any that like Castle enough to cross over and register Republican.
I see your point from a primary angle. But I do think we have enough “quiet” Republicans, having felt hijacked in talking points willing to send a more moderate Castle right back where he belongs.
I agree Joanne. I think this is why we need a numbers gal/guy to do some number crunching. Is the far right hard core base big enough to give Castle a headache in the primary? Especially now, when it seems like discontent is growing if those videos are right.
Here is the link you requested U. I. thanks for your interest.
http://www.delawarepolitics.net/power-to-the-people-the-pitchfork-brigade-holds-the-leader-accountable/
I am not finished looking at this race, but I did look at the finances today. O’Donnell and Protack don’t have the fund-raising track record to be able to take Castle on in a competitive way is my bet. I don’t the 13 months until the primary allow for anyone to get a competitive campaign together.
I did a post on this and compared the Delaware situation to the Penna situation where I think Pat Toomey, who ran a close race in 2004 against Specter and ran Specter out of the Republican Party this year, appears to bring more to the table from a fund-raising and organizational standpoint.
I’m not saying I would vote for Toomey,just that he seems to have a good skill set when it comes to fund-raising and organizing.
Kudos to John Tobin! You are such a good sport to study the “other” game. Thanks. Such a good neighbor:).
Having received a bevy of “Hell, no!s,” if Mr Castle were the Democratic nominee, with what does that leave you, voting for the Republican nominee? 🙂
Me, I can’t see him running as anything other than a Republican.
Mr Tobin: I will be voting for Mr Toomey sixteen months from now, as I voted for him in the 2004 primary. What will amuse me more than anything is if Rep. Joe Sestak beats Senator Specter for the democratic senatorial nomination.
“What will amuse me more than anything is if Rep. Joe Sestak beats Senator Specter for the democratic senatorial nomination.”
It won’t amuse you much when your boy gets crushed by Sestak in the general. Some handjob conservative vs. a former admiral? Even the raccoon-fuckers in the Appalachian hills won’t vote for your sissy-boy.
Dana, I am sure you will not be alone.
My main point was that Toomey had a relatively strong following compared to his philosphical counterparts in Delaware.
The Specter-Sestak primary will be interesting to follow. I have not done enough research yet to make a guess at who is likely to win and its a long way off.
I think Sestak will beat Specter. Early polls are showing Democratic support for Specter as quite soft.
Admiral Sestak was not that nice a guy when he was in the military.
The wingnut base is desperate and is just lashing out blindly in every direction like a wounded animal. And who are they attacking? Castle, who actually has a shot at flipping a DE Senate seat from D to R.
Their strategy is to gnaw off their own legs until they get out of the trap. Yeah, that’ll work.
LOL, anon.
Are, so what? I personally want someone effective, we’re not voting on best friend. Besides, Specter is a raging a##hole and that doesn’t seem to have stopped him from being a Senator.
“Admiral Sestak was not that nice a guy when he was in the military.”
Did you serve with him Art?
anon, great comment.
Is it wingnutty to oppose Mike Castle for his vote on cap and trade which will probably have the most profound negative impact on our wallets in our history? If so then dems are much more wingnutty than repubs are. Almost 50 dems crossed the isle to oppose it whereas only 8 repubs(including Castle) supported it. Yes I agree the birthers are a bunch of loons, but so does everyone at National Review, Michele Malkin, to name a few. Are the birthers representative of conservatives in Delaware? Doubtful. Are there cons who would love to see this business as usual republican get a serious primary fight from a fiscal, small government con? Hell yes.