Delaware’s Most Intriguing 2012 Races: The Top 5!

Counting down from #5:

5. SD 12:  Sen. Dori Connor vs. Nicole Poore.

Easily the most likely Senate seat to flip from R to D this cycle. Dori Connor is a wonderful person and has been a wonderful senator, for the most part. She has always had strong labor support, and, up until now, D’s have left her alone. No longer. Dori’s district changed a lot during the 2011 redistricting.  It is truly one of the most absurdly-drawn districts of 2011. Click here, then click on the PDF icon for the 12th District, and you’ll understand the close-to-impossible task Connor faces. Connor lives in Penn Acres, in the extreme upper-northeastern boundary of the district. This district used to be a City of New Castle-centered district. 10 years ago, the district migrated southwestward towards Bear. Now it extends all the way to Glasgow and, most notably, south of the Canal into the Middletown area. The registration figures are more than daunting: 18 thousand (!) D’s; 7800 R’s, and about 7700 I’s. And the D’s have recruited a possible rising star in this district. Nicole Poore has been an effective special-needs advocate; has been campaigning relentlessly; resides in the most populous and growing portion of the district; has the support of virtually the entire Democratic Party team, including Progressive Democrats of Delaware and the Stonewall Dems; and has even secured labor endorsements that had previously served to prop up Dori Connor. Once flipped, this seat will stay flipped. I really like Dori, she’s served her constituents well, but she stayed one cycle too many. Look for Poore to become an important player in Dover.

4. RD 29: Rep. Lincoln Willis vs. Trey Paradee.

This under-the-radar race belongs on everybody’s political radar. Lest we forget, Trey Paradee, virtually on his own, came within an eyelash of knocking off incumbent Pam Thornburg back in 2008.  The initial results showed that he had, but a transcribing error was discovered and Thornburg was the winner in a photo finish. Following Thornburg’s retirement, Republican Lincoln Willis won against a less-imposing D challenger, and Willis has generally done a credible job in his first term. So why, you may ask, do I rank this race so highly? Two reasons: (1) Trey Paradee is a superb candidate who knows how to run an effective grassroots campaign; and (2) I think that Pete Schwartzkopf is a bleeping genius when it comes to redistricting, especially for Kent and Sussex Counties. Paradee stands to benefit and Willis stands to lose ground based on the redrawn lines and demographics of the new district. Willis was especially strong in the traditionally rural farmland portions of the district. He ran real well there and in the environs of Smyrna, where his family name (from the auto dealership) was revered by longtime residents. Those areas have been drawn out of the district. This new district is much like  a new Bear or Middletown district, with lots of  new subdivisions and new voters. According to demographic data, of the close to 13,000 registered voters in the district, 47% of them have registered in the last ten years. These are almost all transplants.  And they have registered overwhelmingly Democratic.  The numbers bear this out: 6154 D’s; 4586 R’s; and 3345 I’s. And these are real D’s, not Sussex D’s. This is now a whole new district,  and we know that Trey Paradee has espoused progressive principles. Just might be time to break out your checkbooks…

3.  RD 20: Marie Mayor vs. Steve Smyk.

The Good vs. Ee-vil House battle of the year. There is a very nominal D edge, 6610 D; 6359 R; 4019 I. But this will be more a battle about tolerance, philosophy, ideology, and organization. Marie Mayor clearly has the organization part down pat. Running a  positive grassroots campaign, she garnered  1177 votes, 65%, which is an impressive total in a three-way primary. Pete Schwartzkopf’s redistricting has given her more than a fighting chance in this Milton-area district. What the R’s used to do was to draw districts that started in the easternmost parts of Sussex (the more D-oriented areas) and drew them westward to water down the D voters. This district is compact and contiguous. And, Marie Mayor is an extraordinarily-qualified candidate. Wouldn’t you love to have someone with this background as your representative?

Oh, did I mention Mayor’s opponent yet? Steve Smyk (rhymes with ‘dick’, which seems quite apt). Have you forgotten this?:

Is It Smyk, Or Is It Schmuck?

My answer: Both. Yet another state trooper, and this one with the arrogance of John Atkins, has focused his self-proclaimed big gun on a House seat. Steve Smyk has filed to run for the newly-created 20th RD, which has migrated from the Pike Creek area to Milton, Lewes and environs. The Democratic candidate is Marie Mayor. Who is Steve Smyk, you ask? Allow me to quote from my Pre-Game/Post-Game of January 11:

Finally, yet another state trooper, and one seemingly with a high Asshole Quotient, has thrown his steel-toed jackboots into the political arena. One Steve Smyk will run for a newly-created House seat in Sussex County. He met with the House R Caucus in Dover yesterday. Allow me to quote this would-be ‘Honorable’ from the linked News-Journal article:

“They’re very angry that I went to a Republican side,” Smyk said of the Democrats. “[But] I don’t fit well in Democratic skin.”

“They’re afraid of me,” he said of the Democrats.

When a cop is this full of himself, the people he is sworn to protect should be justly afraid of him. He seems to like people being afraid of him, and the guy carries a gun, after all.

Smyk’s comments earned this rejoinder from Pete Schwartzkopf, according to the News-Journal:

“I’m disappointed in the original comments he made,” said Schwartzkopf, the House majority leader from Rehoboth Beach. “If you want to be that kind of candidate where you want to attack people right off the bat, then go to D.C. That’s not how we operate in Delaware.”

This guy is the head of the Delaware State Troopers Association, and he’s from Sussex County. That probably makes him the favorite in this race. Not that he deserves to be.

When you’re a state trooper, you would do well not to make an enemy of Schwartzkopf, who was a state trooper himself. And it appears that Schwartzkopf is far from the only enemy that Smyk has made.

Marie Mayor deserves unstinting progressive support in this race. She has actually thought through the issues. We can help make a difference in this race. I intend to do so, and I hope you will do the same.

2. SD 4: Sen. Michael Katz vs. Rep. Greg Lavelle

Lavelle has apparently decided that being part of the permanent minority in the State Senate is preferable to being part of the permanent minority in the House of Representatives. Redistricted into Debbie Capano Hudson’s district, Lavelle opted for the Senate race instead of a House primary. At one time, SD 4 was the safest R senate seat in the state. That was before the Sussex Tea Party and, uh before 2008, when Katz captured this seat. All that most people remember is that the R’s were fractured with the conservative John Clatworthy winning a three-way R primary and losing to the more moderate Katz.

What people are missing is that Katz proved to be an incredibly-canny candidate and politician in 2008. He had his own primary, and he handily defeated a credible candidate in Dee Durham of Preservation Delaware by a 63-37 margin. Damn good for a first-timer. And, yes, he eked by Clatworthy by 300 votes.

While Lavelle is a more formidable opponent than Clatworthy, some things have changed. While SD 4 still has an R registration edge, it is now ‘only’ by 1300 over the D’s, a  significantly smaller margin than 2008. Katz has had four years as the incumbent, which also means four years of constituent service, and four years of fighting the powers-that-be for transparency in government.  Perhaps Katz’ most notable constituent is Governor Jack Markell, who is very popular in his home area.

Lavelle also has his strengths. He is a leader in the Republican Party statewide and often serves as its spokesman. A portion of Lavelle’s old 11th district resides within the 4th Senatorial. He is smart and can raise money.

What makes this race intriguing to me are some of the quirky imponderables:

How hard is Markell gonna fight for Katz if it means that Peterson could end up as President Pro-Tem?

Will there be any backlash from what remains of the Rakestraw supporters on Lavelle’s role in ousting her?

Will Greg Lavelle’s relentless push to protect pedophile priests from prosecution hurt him among those with a conscience? (Defined as anyone who doesn’t vote for Romney.)

Will Katz’ noted ‘iconoclasm’ be a plus or a minus?

Who comes out to vote, and who stays home this Election Day?

I tend to view Lavelle as the slight favorite, but I learned, not once, but twice, in 2008, that you underestimate Michael Katz at your own risk. He’s tough and he’s resilient.

1. SD 6: Ernesto Lopez vs. Andrew Staton.

This race will shatter the previous spending record for a Delaware State Senate campaign. And why shouldn’t it? It’s got everything. A new  district. Two stellar candidates with bright political futures. Both parties and attendant interests heavily invested. A far-from-certain outcome.

I believe that this district was crafted specifically for Andy Staton. I don’t know this for certain, but I do know that Pete Schwartzkopf has been pushing Staton’s candidacy since Jump Street, and I suspect that there was some strategery between the House and Senate that determined the design of this district. I have no doubt that Andy Staton would have romped over Glen Urquhart had Urkie prevailed in the R primary. Instead, what you have is an election for a Sussex County State Senate seat featuring two candidates who don’t look and sound  anything like candidates for a Sussex County State Senate seat. The registration numbers are close to inconsequential: 13,563 D’s; 12,458 R’s; and 7822 I’s. Lopez got more votes in a competitive two-way primary than Staton got in a less-competitive three-way primary, 2163 (Lopez) to 2088 (Staton). But, maybe Urkie voters are less likely to support the moderate Lopez than the other D voters are to support Staton? I have no clue.

I’ve always been fascinated by the degree to which certain races eclipse others despite the fact that each is only worth one seat. Both Dave Sokola and Patti Blevins were first elected to the State Senate in 1990. Both seats had been previously held by Republicans: Sen. Margo Ewing Bane, who had retired, and Sen. Bob Still, who ran against Blevins. Both races were competitive and were viewed as such at the time. Yet, the Blevins-Still race broke the record at the time for money expended on a senate race, while the Sokola/Frank Marx race ran on mom ‘n pop finances by comparison. Sokola won by 371 votes and Blevins won by 405.  But, the power-brokers and those who effectively controlled the direction of both parties placed all their bets on only one of the races.

The Lopez-Staton race is such a race. The R’s, in particular, need some rising stars, and Schwartzkopf and, by extension, Markell have put their prestige on the line. I ain’t got a dawg in this hunt, I think both candidates would be superb senators, I’m just gonna sit back and enjoy this one.