Will We See a Brokered Convention (or Two)?
It has never happened in my lifetime, but we have a shot at it this cycle. It is a situation where no one candidate has enough committed delegates to win the nomination going into the convention. This is more likely this cycle due to the compression of the schedule. If we have an equitable distribution of wins through Super Tuesday, things are going to get desperate. 29 states will have voted by February 6th (27 Republicans) including New York and California (including two states that have been stripped of their Democratic delegates).
I heard Tony Blankley of the Washington Times say that he has upgraded his hotel room at the Republican convention to a suite to allow for people to meet in there, should it be brokered.
We have already seen a number of odd voting events in the past few years (see Florida, State of) so why not an all-out political brawl at the conventions? Sadly, I think that such a situation on the Dem side would benefit Hillary, it is much more fluid on the Republican side, but it’s early. Either way, it is going to get interesting.
Tags: 2008 Presidential
I don’t think either party will face a brokered convention.
The Dems really have only three possibilities, and Edwards has to do well early or it’ll be down to Obama and Clinton. In a two-person race, one of the two will prevail before the convention.
While it changes weekly, the R race is coming into sharper focus. Giuliani is in freefall, and I can’t see where he builds his firewall. I think Huckabee will fade as (a) more stories about his very weird positions come out (b) the kingmakers in the party panic and (c) his lack of fundraising prowess translates into inadequate organization.
That’ll leave Romney and (the just-returned-from-the-politically-dead) John McCain to slug it out. Again, in a two-person race, someone (and I’m betting it’s Romney) will prevail.
That’s my story and I’m sticking to it. At least for the rest of this week.
That sounds right to me.
Steve’s analysis is as likely as any scenario out there, but there are a couple of points I’ll debate for the sake of argument:
On the Democratic side, Edwards very well might stay alive longer than Steve thinks. I believe his anti-corporate message and his lack of funding from corporate PACs will tap into the same populist groundswell that has thrust Huckabee to polling prominence and Paul to fundraising prominence over in the GOP. He won’t do much in NH, but he could sneak into the top 2 in Iowa; if he then does well in SC, I’d expect him to do well in the southern states on Feb. 5. If he can’t survive beyond that, the question becomes which team will he join.
On the Republican side, NO candidate now polls above the low 20s nationally. Steve, do you think Giuliani won’t be able to win in Florida? If he doesn’t, maybe it goes down the way you speculate. But if he does hold on to win there, he stays alive. Romney is slipping, too, so I question whether he’s among the last two standing. Once he’s past Iowa and NH, where does he win? And I don’t think Huckabee’s supporters will flee; he has the Christian 20%, who won’t run away because of his fringe positions. They’re solid. I think McCain could surge, but his time is running out; he almost has to win NH to stay viable. And don’t forget Paul — what’s he going to do with all that money? My guess is a NH blitz, and I think he could finish 2nd there.
In other words, if we’re ever going to see a brokered convention in our lifetimes, it will be in the GOP in ’08.
Remember, though, that’s just for the sake of argument. Steve’s scenario is at least as likely as mine.
NO (Republican) candidate now polls above the low 20s nationally.
That is the crux of it. They are still waiting for the ghost of St. Ronny to rise from the grave.
Speaking of which…I saw Fred Thompson on TV last night. HOLY MOTHER OF GOD! He looked like the corpse of St. Ronny risen from the grave.
Funny you should mention that, Jason. I think all those “Law & Order” reruns actually hurt him, because he has aged quite a bit over the past 5 years. So when people see the current FT, the first thing they think is, “God, he looks AWFUL!” Then of course there’s the activity-level-of-a-three-toed-sloth thing. I truly believe the whole candidacy was his wife’s idea.
There are many scenarios, my thought is that we could really have enough diversity of support in January that we could see no clear candidate by March, which makes it anyones game.
Al: I’m actually an Edwards supporter, and I really like his message. He’s also sort of the candidate-of-choice of the liberal blogosphere. I’m just disappointed that he doesn’t seem to have caught on, other than in Iowa. And my comment about him maybe being out early if he doesn’t win Iowa is based also on the fact that his fundraising has lagged behind Clinton and Obama, and he has been forced to accept public financing.
Giuliani appears to be in free-fall to the point where Huckabee has drawn even with him in Florida. While it’s possible that he can somehow turn that around, the dripdripdrip of scandal coupled with his high-handedness have made people take a second look at him, and they don’t like what they see. His firewall keeps changing, and keeps getting pushed back further on the primary calendar. At some point, bad results early cause money to dry up and people to look elsewhere. I could be wrong, but I think Giuliani is tanking, and I think his candidacy is terminal.
And if Giuliani does tank, I think virtually all of his supporters break for Romney or McCain, not Huckabee. The Huckabee phenomenon is fascinating, but it looks like the Republican elders have the long knives out. I don’t think Huckabee lasts either, but I’m far less certain about that than Giuliani.