Iowa Electronic Markets & Super Delegates
If you filter out the volatility around the New Hampshire primary, the trend lines look pretty good for Obama.
(click to enlarge)
The one on the right is the recent chart from Intrade.com which gets a more international investor.
$0.62 to $0.41 is a pretty big lead as we head to the wire. Granted, these traders could be over reacting to Obama’s recent ass kicking but I have another theory.
The super delegates that appear to give Senator Clinton a slight lead right now are a mirage that these traders see through. Right now CNN gives Clinton a 59 delegate lead. That includes Clinton’s 223 super delegates to Senator Obama’s 131. Of those 223 Clinton leaning Governors and Senators, and national Committee members some are like Ruth Ann Minner, huge dolts who will still go for Clinton no matter what. However, others are like Rhett Rugerio who you have to imagine 1) would rather not be seen as an out of touch party insider stealing the nomination from Obama and 2) can see the way Delaware went for Obama and has nothing to gain by sticking with Clinton.
In other words, I think investors realize that the super delegates are aren’t all SUPER stupid.
Breaking : Hillary’s campaign manager is out.
Took ’em long enough.
Does anyone know what Bill’s gonna do now?
*rimshot!*
I’m waiting to see them kick Terry McAuliffe out. He’s supposed to be the magic fundraiser and if she’s having to lend money to the campaign he can’t be doing too well.
Also, I’m sure you have all noticed this, but the Clinton campaign seems to be sticking with the old DLC strategy of going for the big, plum states and ignoring the rest of the country; while Obama’s campaign seems to be doing the Howard Dean style 50-state strategy. I guess old habits die hard or maybe they just have hard heads.
Terry McAuliffe is s walking, talking disaster. When I saw that he was invloved wit Clinton I knew Obama had a great shot at winning this thing.
I would have replaced the senior campaign strategist, not the manager (by definition, the manager is not the one calling the shots).
I will say this, the Clintons are masters of having people loyal to them fall on the sword (Can you say Susan McDougal?) –
This is the latest spin as captured by ABC:
“Many on the campaign underline that family considerations also played a role in her decision. The mother of two young children, Solis Doyle is like many in the campaign who had expected the nomination fight to have been wrapped up one way or another by Feb. 5, Super Tuesday, and are exhausted and somewhat demoralized to think this struggle might last weeks or even months longer.”
Can you imagine what they’re suggesting? That a professional woman who took on the task as campaign manager for the most famous non-incumbent in history running for the presidency, didn’t realize how hard it would be and we all have to understand she has kids…awww.
I don’t buy it, she was kicked out.
Patti Solis Doyle = scapegoat
Just to play devil’s advocate, she may have assumed that they would have this wrapped up by now. The Obama people knew that if they were going to win this, it would be a long, hard battle. The Clinton people thought that if they were going to win it, they would have done so by now.
Methinks they are both right.
Geek
If your candidate has been battling for the last month and a half to get to a point where she’s in it –
Democrats(2,025 needed to win nomination)
Candidates number of delegates
Hillary Clinton 1125
Barack Obama 1087
John Edwards 26
would you abandon the campaign now? Come’ on Geek, this doesn’t pass the laugh test.
They didn’t win anything yesterday and this is the result.
Can you imagine going up to Hillary and saying, “hey you know, I thought we would have this wrapped up by now, you know my wife says that I need to get back now with the kids and all…”
Didn’t happen.
Likely scenario –
Bill – “WTF, we couldn’t win one damn state?!”
McAuliffe – “We need a headline and show folks we mean business. Who don’t we really need?”
Hillary – “Patti”
Bill – “Can anyone else do her job?”
Hillary – “Yeah, Maggie. It’ just coordinating stuff, she’ll figure it out.”
Hillary – “Okay, let’s do it”
Bill – “Have her say something about needing to be with her kids, people love that stuff.
Hillary – “Yeah, good idea”
clean sweep for Obama…now how can we get these “super delegates” to cast their vote for the winner in Delaware and a winner across the nation. If they refuse to give all their delegates to Obama, what is the punishment they should get from voters in Delaware in November! Some folks say if the super delegates go with Hillary, they will not vote in November!
Interesting the two party system in Delaware refuses to permit Open Primary where everyone can vote….some would vote dem, some repub, but I believe most would have gone to Obama! Not having an Open Primary in Delaware disenfranchises voters who are unaffiliated with either party, and IPOD’s who wish to vote.
Think the Democrats are ready to do an overhaul here in Delaware of their own party and permit one person, one vote….or continue to keep some out of the process…but look to the independents in the general to put them over the top! There is a major disconnect here.
Now I’m laughing. Nice dialog. Congrats on you and the rest of the WGA writers on resolving your differences…
I didn’t say it was likely, but it is possible. If you are driving toward a goal and the goalposts move, you may have second thoughts. Perhaps you say something about how nice that Obama fellow sounds…
Your scenario seems more likely, but do you really put out such an awful story on the heels of Obama’s sweep?
Liz, if you want a say in the democratic nominee, join the party.
“Congrats on you and the rest of the WGA writers on resolving your differences”
I know you’re joking, however I am in fact a WGA member, who would of thought it would come in handy 🙂
“…do you really put out such an awful story on the heels of Obama’s sweep?”
Insiders are going ballistic and want a shake up…I doubt this would satisfy, but I guess it’s a start.
It is interesting that MacAuliffe is part of the reason why Clinton is having her problems right now. Part of their “inevitability” strategy was about tapping big donors for the max early on and not paying much attention to capturing smaller donors. Their established lists are largely done — they can’t ask for more from them — so now they have to try for the smaller donors. This mirrors the tension that accompanied Dean’s takeover of the DNC. The MacAuliffe loyalists (big donors) stamped their feet abit while Howard went about creating a small donor base for the DNC and surpassed previous fundraising records while doing that.
The Solis Doyle thing certainly is not helping their narrative one bit. But I do think that this is a firing, but am with John and the others wondering why this one is going and not her strategist and fundraiser are not going too.
Is it a coincidence that Maggie Williams is an African-American?
One would hope so, but it is something one cannot help but notice in the final analysis.
Wasn’t Maggie Williams the one who “found” the missing Rose Law Firm billing records in the WH private residence closet? (I don’t know about you all, but I keep all my sensitive law firm records in my bedroom closet…it’s standard practice for us lawyers dontchaknow.)
“Oopsy-daisy…how did they get there?…right next to Hillary’s tiara and combat boots…and not a moment too soon”