If you filter out the volatility around the New Hampshire primary, the trend lines look pretty good for Obama.
(click to enlarge)
The one on the right is the recent chart from Intrade.com which gets a more international investor.
$0.62 to $0.41 is a pretty big lead as we head to the wire. Granted, these traders could be over reacting to Obama’s recent ass kicking but I have another theory.
The super delegates that appear to give Senator Clinton a slight lead right now are a mirage that these traders see through. Right now CNN gives Clinton a 59 delegate lead. That includes Clinton’s 223 super delegates to Senator Obama’s 131. Of those 223 Clinton leaning Governors and Senators, and national Committee members some are like Ruth Ann Minner, huge dolts who will still go for Clinton no matter what. However, others are like Rhett Rugerio who you have to imagine 1) would rather not be seen as an out of touch party insider stealing the nomination from Obama and 2) can see the way Delaware went for Obama and has nothing to gain by sticking with Clinton.
In other words, I think investors realize that the super delegates are aren’t all SUPER stupid.