C’mon Texas!
And here is some science for people who’d rather take that route.
Will Obama Outperform the Polls Again?
…a few calculations suggest that there is no Wilder Effect (AKA as a Bradley effect). In fact, the variance runs in the opposite direction, with Obama’s strength being under-represented in the public polling. If there’s any problem related to race, it’s probably that the turnout models are under-representing Africa-American turnout.
Dr. Liberal- As smart as you are, you should know- it all depends on who owns the diebold machines.
I suspect the polls will again be off on this one. I believe much of the polling still depends on random digit dialing from lists, etc. to get a “random sample”. This comes from phone list of those with land lines.
Is the problem with the polls that many of the young and minority populations that are turning out for Obama have cell phones? I doubt that polling firms have updated access to these numbers.
To what extent do the polls matter in Texas? I’ve never been quite clear exactly how the caucus portion of the selection process works. But everyone I read who claims to understand it (they’re all lying) says that for once the caucus portion will favor Hillary.
I also heard the GOP Governor of Texas interviewed two days ago on WPHT, and he said essentially the same thing: the Clintons have been building an organization in Texas since the 1970s.
It is telling that the GOP Gov of Texas is a Hillary booster.
I don’t think he was trying to come across as a booster–I think he was just giving an opinion because the host asked him, but I have to admit you could be right.
I’m thinking Texas is in the bag. I’m hoping for the Republicans and Independents to turn out for Obama.
But remember, Ohio was the state that handed Jethro the general election last time.
Unfortunately, I’m not educated enough in elections to make a prediction. My hope is that the vote will give Obama the insurmountable lead he should have, and end the Clinton machine.