Primary Prediction Thread — Philly Cheesesteak Edition
Yes, I know there is a poll over there, but to get everyone fired up for tonite’s liveblogging of the results use this thread to publicly go out on a limb and predict:
1. Finish Order
2. Final percentage
3. Media spin on the final outcome
There is a prize for the individual who comes closest on all three predictions. Prize TBD. is an Amazon GC. Purchases restricted to liberal books, though.
UPDATE: Predictions eligible for a prize need to be posted to this thread by 7:15 EDT. So step up lurkers and anons, you can play too!
Tags: 2008 Presidential
cassandra – one bit of advice. When sending the prize, don’t have Jason do it. He seems to have a problem with addresses.
Hey, Jason! Did those books ever get sent back to you?
Finish Order (%)- CLINTON(56), DonViti(24), Obama(20)…OK, DV won’t be in there, s0 make it 56-44.
Media spin on the final outcome – Obama could not shake free from the bitter comment nor the onslaught, culminated by Stephanopolous (sp?) and Gibson. Gives HRC motivation to snub Dean and go to convention as an active candidate.
Now then…
1. Finish Order
Clinton 54.00%
Obama 46.00%
3. Media spin on the final outcome
The race drags on. Obama unable to “finish off” Clinton. Clinton promise to bomb Iran proven effective. Will now promise to bomb Italy.
Finish order: Clinton 52%
Obama 44%
Media spin: Obama outspends Clinton (double digit poll #’s forgotten). HRC stays in the race despite not being able to overtake Obama (courtesy of Chuck Todd’s figures), and within 5 minutes of the results focus turns to Indiana, possibly sooner.
The big winner: The media lives another day!
Clinton 55%
Obama 43%
Other 2%
Media spin: Hillary exceeds (?) expectations, Obama wins primarily in urban (read: colored) districts. Hillary now given latitude to run even if NC or IN are losses – claims “candidate of the people” status. WWE’s Monday Night RAW claims King-maker status, America dumber by association.
As stated on Election Inspection:
Clinton: 53.5%
Obama: 45.5%
Other: 1%
Media spin: McCain wins. The math becomes ever more impossible for Hillary, but Obama has yet to deliver the finishing blow. The race drags on. Hillary starts to be viewed by the media the way Huckabee was before dropping out.
My associate, Elliot, predicts 56/44 Clinton, and he could be right. But that suggests the undecideds from SUSA break 100% for Hillary, which I doubt. I’ll stick with his prediction of a 12 delegate gain for Hillary, though.
I second Xstryker word for word. so split our prize now bitches
I’m glad to see that I was not the only person um….influenced …by X’s analysis.
Liveblog link activated.
from talkingpointsmemo.com
But remember, since the polls don’t allocate undecided, both they and the trend estimates are leaving some 8 percent of voters on the table. They will go somewhere, and if they break disproportionately for Clinton you have a “huge win”, while if they go overwhelmingly for Obama you have a nail biter or a dramatic come-from-behind win. In previous primaries, the “winner” has usually enjoyed a significant increase in support beyond what the last polls showed.
Media spin: It’s a horse race again, as the nag has closed the gap! 🙂
When I allow myself to be optimistic I think, “Hillary has really turned herself in the a Republican over the last four weeks. She has basically tired to get into the heads of a couple thousand undecieded voters and convice them that she’d be the most “Republican” choice and People really don’t like Republicans these days.”
Clinton 53%
Obama 46%
Gavel/other 1%
Media spin Clinton does what she had to but is Obama the real winner by closing the gap? Should she continue?
Clinton 53%
Obama 47%
Spin: Clinton should quit now, she’s failed to score a PA knockout, and going on will only divide the party
Clinton of course is going to continue. . .
I needs me an Amazon Gift Card, want Glen Greenwald’s new book. So . . .
Clinton 52%
Obama 47%
Other 1%
Media spin: This is going all the way to the Convention in August. Whooopee, lots of ad money for us, I can’t wait for my bonus check.
What’s the highest bid so far? ok I’ll say…
Clinton 56.01%
Obama 43.09%
and the winner without going over is…
John,
You forgot the media spin! Come on… Cass is giving out an Amazon GC. Besides… I’m dying to hear what you think the pundits will say.
BTW here are some exit polls numbers
CLINTON 52, OBAMA 48
18-24 vote
60% Obama
40% Clinton
Unions
55% Clinton
45% Obama
Gun owners
58% Clinton
42% Obama
People making under $50k
58% Clinton
42% Obama
Women
Clinton 55%
Obama 44
Men
Clinton 47%
Obama 53
Whites
Clinton 60%
Obama 40
Blacks
Clinton 8%
Obama 92
I’m gonna pass on the first showcase let’s see what the second one is..
“I’m dying to hear what you think the pundits will say.”
P –
I don’t know what the pundits will say, but what they should say is, Obama can’t win a big state and Hillary is getting screwed because they are wanting to change the rules in the middle of the game by saying she can’t make her case to superdelegates.
No matter what the spread Matthews and the rest of the MSM will dis Hillary ,However, the real story will be being out spent Hillary wins and proves once again that Obama does not have a knock out punch. So the Question remains that if he is unable to remove the iron lady once and for all does he have the where with all to beat a senile old man
HRC – 54.4%
BO – 45.6%
Under 10% and not the 20% HRC needs to stay in the race…unless she wants to be unmercifully mocked by everyone, everywhere, as a sore loser….
I appreciate that everyone wants HRC to get out of the way of the BHO Express, but if that’s the case why aren’t the voters of PA getting with the program? If Obama is the “annointed one”, shouldn’t the results of these primaries be much more overwhelmingly in his favor than the 51-48 split it has been nationwide (with several of the delegate victories in caucus states, where the general population is woefully represented)?
I’m not trying to be a smart-ass, but Hillary has done better than nearly any candidate has at this stage in the game. Christ, Huckabee stuck around until McCain had locked it up. All she’s doing is facing long odds.
VC
Why can’t she make her case to superdelegates having won Arizona, California, Texas, Ohio, New York, Michigan*, Tennessee, New Jersey, Florida*, Massachusetts, amongst others) if she adds to it PA?
Clinton 51%, Obama 49%! Cant count on the pundits…they dont poll cell phones!
rick j: cuz your talking Alabama…country bumpkins without cable! One would think that since PA is the top state for dead servicemen that they would have come to their senses….
Remember folks that you need 2025 delegates to get the nod so no matter who gets to run against McCain the people will not pick him or her the unelected super delegates get to do it
Because HRC uses the false argument that Obama can’t win those states (the traditional Dem and swing ones at least). We all know that’s bullshit; HRC voters will vote for Obama, overwhelmingly. And he’ll have just as good, if not a better chance to carry those states in the General.
Simply put, she makes the argument that since she one those states in the primary, Obama cannot in November.
Please! Will someone shoot the 400 lb gorilla?
VC
26% of HRC voters will vote McCain, that won’t change…they want BO to lose so they get a shot in 4 yrs…it’s not hard to understand the logic.
You don’t have to like it, just accept it.
VC
BTW..count the hanging chads..cause either you or I are taking the victory tonight (ok, Rsmitty is in there with 56%)…although you said under 10 points, which should disqualify you
I saw that exit poll too, John. It’s present-day sour grapes; their horse lost and right now they’re, ahem, bitter.
that number will significantly drop come November…..
….Obama telling the scorned HRC voters that 4 more years of Bush will hurt them in ways that their battered pride ever will. More war, no more stop-loss, your sons getting drafted, your economic interest falling by the waist-side, in favor of corporations and the wealthy. Yeah, if they play that game then they were never really Dems or liberals in the first place….
And as a precursor, wasn’t HRC up by 20% in PA six weeks ago? She’s been bleeding support everywhere Obama’s had the opportunity to focus on campaigning against her, so it wouldn’t be a stretch too say her support will completely bleed-out come the fall.
I think Obama can do the same against McCain among the moderate Republicans out there too….
p.s. – Many Philly ballots are still being counted, right? I thought they kept the polls open late for whatever reason and had to use provisional ballots….don’t go counting those chicks yet!
Hi Everybody — I’ll evaluate the entries and declare a winner by lunchtime or so after I get some deadlines off of my desk.