Hillary Survives, But the Math is Still Not in Her Favor
So while you hear the media spin last night and this AM re: Hillary’s win, let’s remember a couple of things here:
1. Primaries are about winning delegates, and the Dems award their delegates in a proportional manner. Hillary may have earned 12 -14 delegates over Obama, but she still cannot catch up to him unless she wins everything, and wins it decisively, from here on out.
2. Six weeks ago, Clinton has a 20 point lead and a victory in Ohio which was supposed to be ominous for Obama. For Obama to close the gap means that he is still convincing undecideds (except for those who choose at the last minute). Hillary keeps her base. Obama gets voters who are new to the process — young voters, new voters, party switchers; while Hillary maintains her base. Net is that Obama is speaking to everyone and is convincing folks open to being convinced.
3. Don’t be distracted by the “he can’t deliver a knock out punch” argument. The fact is neither can she — remember when she was inevitable? And she is broke, trailing in delegates, negatives rising and still fighting to hold her base — she is not adding to her coalition now. He, meanwhile, continues to talk to everyone and is still coalition building. If he is maintaining an insurmountable lead in pledged delegates he still holds her off.
4. Also do not be distracted by the handwringing over whether this is going on too long. This is a concern to a) the media who are pretty tired of this crap by now; b) nervous nellie Dems who will constantly worry about what the media and repubs will say about them; and c) the repubs who know that Dems are nervous nellies with self-esteem issues. The media will do what it does (and from where I sit, they are paid abit much to do very little to have any reason to complain about boredom). Nervous nellie Dems need to remember that both the media and the repubs just say what they want about us any damn way and instead of worrying about whatever shit they make up, just push back on it. (Rush Limbaugh and the wingnut-o-sphere will be taking credit for Hillary’s win, right? It won’t matter what the data say.) And the repubs really need to worry about the third term of GWB.
5. Don’t forget that the Dem primary is still breaking records for interest and turnout. This may seem too long, but every state that this continues in is a state with new registered Dems. This is NOT a bad thing, people.
6. Pay no attention to the Obama can’t win the big states argument. Many of the big states are blue, so they are not a question for the general. Some are in play and we’ve already seen who can actually convince people to come to his side. There are other states not exactly in play, but that he can make the repubs spend time and money on that they can ill afford.
7. Superdelegates don’t just have the obligation to pick who can win the Presidency, but this year they are looking at a party-changing moment. Supers will be asking themselves who they (or candidates in their state) will be strongest at the top of the ticket. If you are a Dem candidate this year (or in two years) whose organization do you want to learn from? Whose key leadership do you want on your team? The Clintons have all of the usual squabbling suspects. Obama has the team that is quietly changing the rules and the tools.
They will be asking about stabilizing the long term health of a party that really is just getting its sea legs back. That means not just turning out all of those new voters in November, but keeping them interested and involved for years out. We already know that long-term party building is not a Clinton forte.
So she survives, but the math is still not in her favor. And she stays in driving her and Obama’s negatives, and this latter result is key to Hillary’s superdelegate strategy. She has to make him look unelectable and has to count on the supers actually not noticing that. And she has to ask the superdelegates to choose her and cut off much of the energy that has animated this thing so far — energy that is only staying around for the promise of a longer term orientation to Democratic values. Which we know Hillary won’t do. And there is a very big risk that superdelegates not voting at least proportional to the way the popular vote turned out will really damage much of the Dem advantage for President this year.
So step back and breathe, everybody. Obama did what he needed to do which was hold on to his insurmountable lead in pledged delegates. She will still need to keep convincing the media and her donors that she can make it to the end. And she still won’t get most of the 150+ delegates at stake through 3 June.
Cassandra
What were you saying about spin?
I don’t know why everyone seems to be concerned with pledge delegate count the magic number according to the rules is 2025 or 2024 to get the nomination and neither Obama or Hillary can reach that number so a bunch of hacks are going to decide this race. So it appears that no matter which way it goes somebody is going to be pissed. And Howard Dean has shown zilch for leadership so far. So all I am saying I hope that they at least give us a fighter I am tired of the wimps this party has put up in the past.
This isn’t spin, it’s math. Hillary’s win last night – in a state she was supposed to win – barely changed the delegate numbers.
To make this “win” into anything more than what it always was going to be is spin. Just look at Cassandra’s thread from yesterday. Not one of us predicted an Obama upset. Why? Because Hillary was always going to win PA, the only question was by how much.
It also seems, given the demographics (PA has a larger percentage of older voters than Ohio) that Obama cut into Hillary’s base.
The MSM is clearly in favor of a convention floor show down. The Spin last light was nauseating.
CNN was the worst. It has overtaken Fox News.
Something about this race is starting to get to me and I think I’ll call it the “Jackie Robinson Effect”.
Obama, like Robinson, has to be the paragon of gentlemanly behavior even in the face of blistering attacks from the other side.
It is the one achilles heel in his campaign and Clinton has been able to exploit it.
Corporate media are not telling the truth about PA. Citizens monitoring state that in some counties, Obamas name wasn’t even on the ballot. I sent Jason a copy of that statement. Others claimed that in Phila, machines were broken, lines were long. The issue of faulty voting machines has plagued this election and media corporate and local are not interested in discussing it. NH the ballots didnt match the machine count. SC, Ohio and many other states this is the problem. If we don’t start discussing it…we will have another stolen election in 2008,…no question about it. Mark Miller Prof at NYU has a new book about the entire debacle. My question is why the Democrats have done nothing to fix this machine problem in the last 8 years?
John, you still have an unpaid bar tab, so you do not get to opine about spin. Plus if it were all spin you would have actually refuted something here. Tis smarter for you to hold on to your energy to try to sell GWB Part III.
TeeVee news has been horrible. They want a drawnout ratings feed. There was some idiot on WDEL yesterday who thought that the ABC moderator questions were proper so people would watch the debate. It was ok to be sleazy; it was important so that their ratings would be good.
God forbid that the first question should be about healthcare. Everyone would click over to another show and then, who loses?
The American people or a commercial enterprize? Answer: wrong question?
Obama, like Robinson, has to be the paragon of gentlemanly behavior even in the face of blistering attacks from the other side.
Obama set up this dynamic himself — his new kind of politics is trying to get away from the counting coup crap that substitutes for actually having to run on some issues.
But I will note that if the dymanic here was reversed, how long do you think it would have taken the media and the superdels to pressure him to get out of the race? Clintonball means that she keeps getting to reset the bar. He never would be allowed to do that — he has to live with the higher expectations while life on the lower road is going to be treated as business as usual for both Clinton and McCain.
Cassandra,
Too tired after last night’s gig, so I will not “refute” in detail your post. I suggest you’re spinning, it’s for others to judge.
I’ll save my energy for the next round, In the meantime…remember, you can put lipstick on a pig, but it’s still a pig. (I can only imagine what’s to follow once DV reads this comment)
There is nothing pretty about Obama’s performance last night (or in any other state that matters).
John shilling for HRC? With friends like this… oink!
Pandora,
HRC – The enemy of my enemy, nothing more.
And this: (or in any other state that matters) gives you away.
Using Hillary talking points doesn’t add to argument.
And she still does not have the math.
FYI
GEN Petraeus just named new USCENTCOM Commander.
Big news.
It means that McCain’s guy is in charge of the whole region. He can begin to incorporate policy to align with McCain’s campaign’s talking points and not vice versa…interesting. This would really bring to surface McCain’s Commander in Chief qualifications and decisions.
John, The enemy of my enemy?
Newsflash! Republicans are scared of Obama!
Thanks, John… you brightened my day, and proved my point. Obama can – and will – win!
Pandora
Not scared. He will be your nominee, don’t read more into my statement than what it is, fact.
“McCain is also trying to make hay with Obama’s “bitter” remarks again- but he does get credit for asking the NC GOP not to run their Rev. Wright ad, even though they refused to stop running it.” -Atriot
Petraeus moving to Centcom is Not news. Gen Fallow started telling the truth about the surge and they forced him out. Petraeus is a pol to the core and will lie with the worst of them, lying through their teeth.
John, don’t be so sure Obama will be our nominee. Republicans are moving heaven and earth to make Hillary our nominee. Which should be a warning to all Dems. In NC the republicans are running ads against Obama – not Hillary. Why? Because they desperately want to run against her, and given her negatives… why wouldn’t they?
I stick by my original statement: Rebulicans are scared of Obama.
100% spot on.
What I don’t get are the Dems like Truthy who are still so eager to please the Republicans after 8 years of abuse.
Must be stockhom syndrome or something.
No Jason I want to win and have the person that has the best chance to beat the Repubs get the nod whomever that person may be. As for Pandora always talking about delegates neither one can reach the number 2025 which the rules call for so as it stands right now both are tied for the lead neither can cross the finish line based on their performance. And had Dean and the DNC not been so stupid this thing would have been over long ago and we could be marching now to our victory