So while you hear the media spin last night and this AM re: Hillary’s win, let’s remember a couple of things here:
1. Primaries are about winning delegates, and the Dems award their delegates in a proportional manner. Hillary may have earned 12 -14 delegates over Obama, but she still cannot catch up to him unless she wins everything, and wins it decisively, from here on out.
2. Six weeks ago, Clinton has a 20 point lead and a victory in Ohio which was supposed to be ominous for Obama. For Obama to close the gap means that he is still convincing undecideds (except for those who choose at the last minute). Hillary keeps her base. Obama gets voters who are new to the process — young voters, new voters, party switchers; while Hillary maintains her base. Net is that Obama is speaking to everyone and is convincing folks open to being convinced.
3. Don’t be distracted by the “he can’t deliver a knock out punch” argument. The fact is neither can she — remember when she was inevitable? And she is broke, trailing in delegates, negatives rising and still fighting to hold her base — she is not adding to her coalition now. He, meanwhile, continues to talk to everyone and is still coalition building. If he is maintaining an insurmountable lead in pledged delegates he still holds her off.
4. Also do not be distracted by the handwringing over whether this is going on too long. This is a concern to a) the media who are pretty tired of this crap by now; b) nervous nellie Dems who will constantly worry about what the media and repubs will say about them; and c) the repubs who know that Dems are nervous nellies with self-esteem issues. The media will do what it does (and from where I sit, they are paid abit much to do very little to have any reason to complain about boredom). Nervous nellie Dems need to remember that both the media and the repubs just say what they want about us any damn way and instead of worrying about whatever shit they make up, just push back on it. (Rush Limbaugh and the wingnut-o-sphere will be taking credit for Hillary’s win, right? It won’t matter what the data say.) And the repubs really need to worry about the third term of GWB.
5. Don’t forget that the Dem primary is still breaking records for interest and turnout. This may seem too long, but every state that this continues in is a state with new registered Dems. This is NOT a bad thing, people.
6. Pay no attention to the Obama can’t win the big states argument. Many of the big states are blue, so they are not a question for the general. Some are in play and we’ve already seen who can actually convince people to come to his side. There are other states not exactly in play, but that he can make the repubs spend time and money on that they can ill afford.
7. Superdelegates don’t just have the obligation to pick who can win the Presidency, but this year they are looking at a party-changing moment. Supers will be asking themselves who they (or candidates in their state) will be strongest at the top of the ticket. If you are a Dem candidate this year (or in two years) whose organization do you want to learn from? Whose key leadership do you want on your team? The Clintons have all of the usual squabbling suspects. Obama has the team that is quietly changing the rules and the tools.
They will be asking about stabilizing the long term health of a party that really is just getting its sea legs back. That means not just turning out all of those new voters in November, but keeping them interested and involved for years out. We already know that long-term party building is not a Clinton forte.
So she survives, but the math is still not in her favor. And she stays in driving her and Obama’s negatives, and this latter result is key to Hillary’s superdelegate strategy. She has to make him look unelectable and has to count on the supers actually not noticing that. And she has to ask the superdelegates to choose her and cut off much of the energy that has animated this thing so far — energy that is only staying around for the promise of a longer term orientation to Democratic values. Which we know Hillary won’t do. And there is a very big risk that superdelegates not voting at least proportional to the way the popular vote turned out will really damage much of the Dem advantage for President this year.
So step back and breathe, everybody. Obama did what he needed to do which was hold on to his insurmountable lead in pledged delegates. She will still need to keep convincing the media and her donors that she can make it to the end. And she still won’t get most of the 150+ delegates at stake through 3 June.