McCain’s Evangelical Problem
There have been rumblings about McCain’s strength among the religious right for months. This article highlights McCain’s problem among evangelical voters.
Barack Obama is trying hard to win evangelical voters. Does that effort stand a chance?
If one third of white evangelicals voted for Bill Clinton the second time, at the height of Monica Lewinsky mess–that’s a statistic I didn’t believe at first but I double and triple checked it–I would not be surprised if that many or more voted for Barack Obama in this election. You’re seeing some movement among evangelicals as the term [evangelical] has become more pejorative. There’s a reaction among some evangelicals to swing out to the left in an effort to prove that evangelicals are really not that right wing. There’s some concern that maybe Republicans haven’t done that well. And there’s this fascination with Barack Obama. So I will not be surprised if he gets one third of the evangelical vote. I wouldn’t be surprised if it was 40-percent.
Possibly 40% for Obama? I had to read the article several times before that figure sunk in.
What does this mean for John McCain and the Republican Party?
Epitaphs, anyone?
Tags: 2008 Presidential, John McCain
Obama is a master at subtly evoking religious imagery. Say what you will about his pastor, but Obama knows the Bible and is not afraid to connect with his audience in those terms. I’d rather a politician understand religion and use it to connect rather than as weapon to attack his opponent.
Amen!
#1 & #2 ……..I’m w/you.
It was not at the during the Monica Mess. Monica was 1998. Clinton also spoke to religious voters especially after 1994. If that happens, then OH, IN, MO, NC, GA, VA, and WV could be in deep trouble for McCain. It is interesting that Senator Obama is targeting all of those states.
That is why Mike Huckabee may end up on the ticket. If evangelicals turnout big for McCain, he can’t lose. It is a matter of math. Keep the Bush coalition together. He will add independents and lose some Republicans, but the key to his victory will be evangelical enthusiasm and independent appeal.
McCain loses Independents with Huckabee. Kinda like being caught between a rock and a hard place.
Wrong, look at your polls for instance the only GOP VP candidate who puts PA in play is Huck. He is a very appealing individual. People do not avoid a President because they don’t like the second fiddle. Remember in November match ups Huckabee polled almost as well as McCain and locks up more states while McCain puts more states in play.
Huck doesn’t do well in the Northeast while McCain may carry CT and NH. Yes, McCain would lose a few Independents, but Huckabee would calm them with a great convention speech. You guys can’t scare people by yelling HUCK. He is viewed positively by more people than Hillary for instance. He speaks to those working class Democrats who cling to God and guns which will make up for a few independents lost.
David,
What I worry about is the problem of radical evangelicalism, and with it the problem of the religious industrial complex whose say over men’s minds seems to me so detrimental for them thinking for themselves.
I have listened closely to people who are very religious in this sense and while I can admire their own sense of individual morality, I do not admire their attempt to legislate their morality on me or others who beleive in the freedom of moral conscience.
Once we lose that sense of protecting liberty and freedom of moral conscience becuase “my pastor told me so” it is a frightening prospect. It creates a lockstep kind of mentality that is not conducive to faith in the common people of this nation.
Jefferson eloquently exposed this reality and it is something that we need to address. I will cling to my faith in humanity and a creator, but I will not impose it on anyone else and I will not discriminate against them, but the moment they begin to bash me or discriminate against someone who is Catholic or Jewish or a Qauker or a Buddhist, or a Muslim or a Hindu, I am no longer going to be morally neutral.
Huckabee offended my sensibilities as much as McCain does.
Huckabee puts PA in play by only +3 if matched up with Sebelius or Hagel as VP to Obama. If Huckabee is matched up against Obama/Edwards or Rendell, Huckabee loses PA by 7 or 9. And that is without a full court press for Huckabee to release his sermons from when he was a full-time preacher.
As documented in posts here, younger evangelicals don’t have the same interests as their parents (with many interested in Obama). Of course it is tough to see what wedge issues that repubs will put up to see if they can drive their religious voters to the polls, but McCain certainly is struggling with the dog whistle signals to the religious right voter and many of those voters remember when he dissed them wholesale in 2000.
I don’t get it, why a push for Sebelius, her foreign policy experience would be what?
An unknown…he would be better off with Hagel than her.
Religion has no place, none at all in the election process….wake up. Put down your Bibles, Torah and Koran and pick up the Consitution….thats the document we should be focusing on…because its almost gone….this religion crap is a ruse for not delivering policy on issues we want answers too. Why are the educated falling for this absolute nonsense?
Without the foundation provided by faith, the Constitution is useless. The America you want would be one the founders would hate. I say pick up the Bible, Torah, Koran, Tripitaka, or Vedas. Get inspiration to be better and care about others. That is the basis for society.
We will either govern ourselves or be governed by another.
Religion or faith does not automatically equal moral and ethical superiority.
What is interesting about the 1/3 of white evangelicals voting for Bill Clinton is that it not only showed Clinton’s ability to appeal to his fellow evangelicals, but also reinforced the fact that Bob Dole was never trusted by a large segment of them. I often heard people refer to past problems with him. I think most voted for Bob Dole because of DOMA, opposition to abortion, and gays in the military. If Bob Dole could have gotten the same numbers and enthusiasm as W, he would have won.
Clinton gave lip service to Prayer in school, Jerusalem as the capitol of Israel, he supported legislation against domestic violence, he pushed family and medical leave, raising the minimum wage, and signed elimination of the marriage penalty in the tax code. Those where all important issues to many evangelicals. Bob Dole was not in favor of any but the first one to my recollection. Evangelicals are family oriented. Family and medical leave was a perfect issue to divide the GOP. The pro-family side supported it while the pro-market side opposed it.
Senator McCain could have the same problem. Federal funding of Embryonic Stem cell research and lukewarm reception to the federal marriage amendment (favored by his mentor Teddy Roosevelt) turns off his GOP evangelical and conservative catholic base. If he doesn’t find someone to energize it, it will be tough for him to pull OH, GA, and MO. Yes, it could be a problem. I think the McCain people are up for the challenge. Sarah Palin, anyone?
Why wouldn’t Jesus freaks love Obama? His tepid support of gay rights and his shameful cowardice in terms of reproductive-rights voting should be enough to get them sippin’ the kool-aid.
Wow, it’s weird to see the Clinton supporters who went nuts over the “bittergate” suddenly throw all those devout Appalachian white folks under the bus . “Jesus freaks”? I’m glad we’re on opposite sides of this particular issue.
By the way, by “shameful cowardice in terms of reproductive-rights voting” are you talking about his vote against banning late-term abortion? Hillary voted to ban late-term abortion even though the legislation did not adequately protect the the health of the mother.
Maybe you’re referring to the time when Planned Parenthood of Illinois begged him to abstain on abortion votes so that they could convince conservative democrats to abstain as well instead of voting to restrict reproductive rights. This is a strategy that proved 100% effective at killing anti-abortion bills, and allowed Democrats to win control of the Illinois Senate. Obama then chaired the Health and Human Services committee, and stopped every single GOP anti-choice bill from ever reaching the full senate floor.
I wonder if NARAL was “sippin’ the kool-aid” when they gave Obama a 100% rating on choice issues?
I guess you prefer the more conservative candidate on choice issues, which is Hillary.
Remember that a lot of Evangelicals went for Perot. Bob Barr could pull a good number in the right conditions. Pat Buchanan polled well especially among evangelicals, but they were comfortable enough with President Bush that they did not see the logic in abandoning him and giving the election to Al Gore who was quoted as praising earth based religions such as Wicca.
I think the facts XS put out will resonate and keep evangelicals in line. The idea of Senator Obama having one to four picks on the court should be enough to overlook McCain’s faults.
First of all, NARAL was hurting for cash and wanted access to his donor list (you should start getting junk mail any day). I suppose you overlooked the reporting on how pissed the local chapters were at that move.
Second of all, please explain why he would have to abstain instead of just voting against anti-abortion bills. That’s the most cockamamie excuse I’ve ever heard. No doubt another unsubstantiated bullshit excuse for his lameness. Is there even one of you out there that’s willing to point out even ONE SHORTCOMING??? Do all of you really think he is infallible?
Dominque, I am convinced this is a game with you. You are just too good at twisting every single thing everyone says….there is NO way you can be saying all this & really mean it. You must be having an absolute blast getting these folks into a tizzy…..
What a monumental waste of time…
David: Good try, great for a laff! McMad choosing for the Supreme Court , you jest. If the Supremes could go any further to the right, you might as well continue to “rip” the Consitution into shreds.
I predict it will be a landslide, for Obama and whoever. Now they are talking about drafting Al Gore….whoopee….he could get Florida the state he already won, and he could work 24/7 on environment and energy.
Save the Planet, Save the Supreme Court from the right wing lunatic fringe.