Obama Opens a Commanding Electoral Lead
Wow. I don’t know if you have been keeping an eye on the widget to the left. According to the newest polls, Obama has opened a commanding 100 electoral vote lead. I know it is July, so it don’t mean much, but it cannot be a good sign for the McCain camp. The pickups from 2004 would be CO, NV, IA, IN, MT and NM. In addition, Florida and Virginia are ties at the moment. This is a great position to be in before the convention season gears up.
McCain is in danger of not winning Arizona – so that widget is giving McCain the benefit of the doubt in a great many states.
MSNBC/WSJ has an interesting poll today:
After embarking on his highly publicized trip overseas, Obama enjoys a 47-41 percent advantage over McCain, which is unchanged from last month….But Obama’s lead over McCain expands to 13 points when third-party candidates Ralph Nader and Bob Barr are added into the mix — with Obama at 48 percent, McCain at 35 percent, Nader at 5 percent and Barr at 2 percent.
It is too early to count on this poll to say much (and where are the internals for this?), but I am pretty stunned that Nader and Barr seem to take votes mainly from McCain.
Zogby is more accurate. They show Obama with 273, which is not a good number for a Democrat to have this far out based on the electoral patterns of the past. Barr and Nader will get 2% each at most in the best of situations.
The electoral deck is stacked against Democrats.
Obama will win the “popular” vote on the strength of urban districts (how PC….), but I predict:
McCain – 274
Obama – 264
Allow me to point out how these poll results resemble this sage political observer’s predictions weeks ago:
danagarrett.predict11.com
Dana, Couldn’t decide what to do with DC? That seems like one of easier ones.
Its got to be a scary year for the R’s. Looks like some seemingly safe red states could go blue. Like VA and MT. VA hasn’t gone blue since ’64.
J,
DC was impossible for me to pick because it is not on the map. There must be some trick to it.