My Final Predictions
Where was Delaware Dem? Why, I was rounding up Republicans, just as Nemski thought. Seriously though, I was canvassing yesterday, standing on the corner of 15th & Market in Philadelphia all day on Friday, working without my laptop on Thursday, and celebrating the Phillies’ world championship on Wednesday. Life, sports, work, and politics all conspired to prevent me from posting. But now I am back and ready to opine on how the greatest and most exciting and most important election of my lifetime will play out.
First, the Presidency:
Barack Obama will win the Presidency in an electoral college landslide. On the popular vote front, he will win by 8: 53% to 45%.
In Delaware, Obama-Biden will win with 57% of the vote.
Second, the U.S. Senate:
North Carolina: Hagan defeats Dole
Colorado: Udall defeats Schaffer
New Mexico: Udall defeats Pearce
Alaska: Begich defeats Stevens
New Hampshire: Shaheen defeats Sununu
Virginia: Warner defeats Gilmore
Minnesota: Franken defeats Coleman and Barkley
Oregon: Merkley defeats Smith
Georgia: will go to a runoff since neither Chambliss and Martin will cross 50%. Martin wins the runoff in December.
This will give the Democrats 59 seats outright (58 Democrats plus Bernie Sanders (I)). If Lieberman stays in the Democratic caucus, we will have 60. But I expect him to join the Republican Party when he loses the Homeland Security chair.
In Delaware, I will of course be voting for Senator Joe Biden, and he will win handily, with over 65% of the vote.
Third, the U.S. House.
Castle will reelected handily. I am voting for Karen Hartley Nagle, but she has no chance to win. The Democrats will gain anywhere between 25 and 35 seats, which gives them a chance to have a 270 majority.
Fourth, Jack Markell will be elected over Bill Lee easily, with 62% of the vote.
Fifth, Matt Denn will be elected over Charles Lamont du Pont Copeland by a closer margin, 52% to 48%.
Sixth, I have no idea how the Insurance Commissioner race will play out. I will be voting for Karen Weldin Stewart for two reasons. First, she does have experience in the insurance regulation industry over her career, and I view that experience as qualifying. Second, I simply do not trust any Republican anywhere in enforcing regulation and advocating for consumers. If a Republican were for enforcing regulations and advocating for consumers, he would be a Democrat. John Brady may talk a good game, but I do not believe him. Nor do I trust him. For he is a Republican. Yes, Karen Weldin Stewart is a flawed candidate, but I can trust her to enforce the regulations we have and to advocate for us. This will be a close race. The winner will probably not cross the 50% mark, given Savage’s presence in the race.
I will predict the Delaware General Assembly tomorrow. Needless to say, the Democrats will gain in both Houses.
Georgia for Obama? McCain has done just enough fear mongering to put the brakes on Obama’s surge in Georgia.
KWS, other people I respect have made the same argument. This is a vote your conscience race.
I hope you know you still need to make these predictions in the The Official Omnibus Prediction Thread and Contest.
Arizona? I just noticed that.
DelDem’s rationale for the IC office is ridiculous. Again, offices like IC, AG, Auditor, and Treasurer are NOT partisan positions. They require a candidate who KNOWS the position and will just be able to get the job done. They aren’t legislating. They’re FOLLOWING the laws written for them. John Brady has said he’s going to be an extension of Matt Denn. This I believe. He’s a lawyer who knows what he’s doing. I hate to sound “elitist,” but I think Matt Denn has proved that one of the prerequisites for this job is a law degree.
I’ve had multiple conversations with both candidates and have seen their performances at the debates. Anyone with a clear, impartial mind definitely comes away realizing that Brady is the man for the job and has KWS beaten hands down on all the issues related therein.
I trust you saw the just-released Survey USA poll for Delaware, with Obama and Markell at 62, Biden at 66:
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=88b47880-9883-4264-bc5f-b29b9880f2b3
(Sorry, don’t know the coding.)
That is a very optimistic map, you don’t have Obama losing a single swing state…
You can see my blog for my predictions…
DEDEM is correct. Remembering this article on how Matt Denn was ‘bamboozled by the insurance lobby’ that prevented his insurance pool legislation from getting any traction?
http://www.delawareonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070226/NEWS/702260345
Wayne Smith and John M. Burris are both heady HIGH GOPers lobbying for health-related industries with an angle or two on insurance issues.
Why DO we see Dave Burris’ DTR pushing this IC race to such a sickening degree by Maria Evans’ faulty reporting, newest paid shill Mike Matthews slime and more sockpuppet slander in anony postings?
Ya think?
Just sayin’.
Gee Matthews, I guess your interview skills are superior to the Cape Gazette and the WNJ who gave KWS an endorsement. She also pulled in the DE Medical Society’s kudos and many, many more. But what do they know?
Haven’t read the Gazette’s endorsement, Nancy, but TNJ’s was ridiculous in its inability to be more specific.
newest paid shill Mike Matthews slime
Good stuff.
I’m struck by how we are all prisoners of our own myopic world views.
That’s a good girl, Nancy. Attack the messenger instead of your candidate answering the charges as to why she has two judgments against her for not paying her bills.
You’ve never once been accurate in anything you’ve ever said about me and my family, so why start now?
By the way, Nancy. Have you heard? Maria Evans and Dave Burris are supporting Bill Lee. By some whacky form of mind control, they’ve gotten me to do the same! Yes, Mike Matthews, he of the unrequited Jack Markell man-love, will now be supporting Bill Lee. Gotta love those GOPerheads, right, Nancy?
And, at this point, it’s not even the stupid bills as Dave mentions above. It’s the fact that KWS can’t produce a resume touting all of this experience she claims she has. It’s the fact that by any measurable standard John Brady is more qualified for this position.
Kind of like Ferris Wharton was infinitely more qualified for the position of AG over Beau Brady. Remember that race, Nancy? You’re simply intent on voting for any Democrat over a Republican. Just admit it.
Interesting how the NJ is suddenly so credible and accurate in reporting on KWS, but they can’t manage the same level of work on Chris Coons, huh Nancy?
I believe that she is scheduled for John and Ger tomorrow, Love.
Nancy,
KWS told Maria Evans to “do her research.” Maria Evans did her research and came up with two credit cards in default for $30,000. Maria contacted KWS for comment, was given the runaround and after offering a decent amount of time for a comment, got none, so she went with the story. She simply REPORTED the facts and then asked more questions. We still haven’t gotten a straight answer from her campaign.
Like I said, I have nothing against KWS. I’ve met her numerous times and she’s a genuinely sweet woman. Her campaign slogan is “A Higher Standard,” but I haven’t seen anything to indicate such in the last week.
I was swayed to vote for Biden for AG because of the filthy way the DE GOP can’t help but conduct themselves during elections.
It is happening again with the Lee and Copeland tactics and over on DTR with Brady’s bunch.
You GOPers should get it. A Blue State ain’t gonna go for Rovian Red Meat served slimey.
Actually, Al, I did not see that SUSA poll before posting. It is nice to know that I am right on the money.
Mike, I heard two sides to the ‘reporting of the story’ so it is hard to conclude whether Elliot did in fact tell her much more than she chose to represent on her blog post (that would have clarified the content, allegedly injurious by way of omission). She told me he didn’t include facts that he told me he did.
What I do know is that the stridency in
Maria’s tone and presentation of such things as the infamous ‘evasive’ denial of having worked at Lowes most likely is what led to KWS’s reluctance to enter into a dialogue with that DTR staffer. I recommended you at first but now think she should stick to someone who isn’t rabidly interested in pulling out her fingernails.
Well that’s a stupid reason, Nancy. Sorry, but I don’t buy it. I also don’t buy your animosity and bullshit rationale behind your claims that DTR is acting on behalf of the GOP. Obviously you have no clue about which you speak.
Interesting how the NJ is suddenly so credible and accurate in reporting on KWS, but they can’t manage the same level of work on Chris Coons, huh Nancy?
*
ooooh bite me Cass!
Angie Basiouny is the reporter who refused to give the public a decent ride. I have repeatedly made my disatisfaction with her content and seeming deliberate omissions in facts known to the editorial board.
You got nottin.
Nancy Willing waxing eloquent about anony sockpuppet slander. That’s rich.
DelDem not believing or trusting someone simply because he is a Republican. Remarkably closed-minded. I wonder what Barack Obama would think of him and his tactics.
This place is great for a little sip of hypocrisy from time to time. Just enough to quench the thirst.
DTR is a frickin’ GOPerhead scandal sheet. WHAT?
What rock have you been hiding under, Dummynique? Haven’t seen your thunderously boring repetitions on the DEM presidential nominee in print lately.
Mike, no one but Pete duPont and Bill Lee are voting for Bill Lee, hadn’t you heard?
Nancy,
Here is DTR’s line-up by political ideology. If I’m misrepresenting anyone, I apologize:
Mike Matthews — Left
Maria Evans — Right (I would even say center-right)
Dave Burris — Right
Randy Nelson — Center-left
Gerry Fulcher — Left
John Flaherty — Left
You were saying, my dear?
Hate to belabor this but I remember John Brady defending Nancy Wagner against John Flaherty and Bob Reeder in one of his many jobs held over the last years as a deputy attorney general and legislative attorney for the Delaware House of Representatives Republican Caucus. He is also an attorney with Brady Richardson Beauregard & Chasanov LLC in Georgetown and represents Milton and Dewey Beach.
http://courts.delaware.gov/Opinions/(hudjad45da1gxxraycbc0zr1)/download.aspx?ID=85070
Mike, are you seriously going to continue to say to me that Brady ain’t covering some serious GOPerfuck ass when in office?
Bullshit.
Two words bud: Hannity and Colmes.
You don’t get it, Mike. You’re nothing but a paid shill. When you’re finished waxing my Ferrari, get Karl Rove on the special red phone and ask him for your next assignment.
Nancy,
You’re out of your damn mind!!! And I love it. And I love you….poor thing.
Not so much hiding under a rock as much as looking for cover for the next four years of economic hell.
What’s left to say? Keith Partridge is going to win and all of the little girls will swoon. Meanwhile, the grown-ups in the room who saw him for the no-talent he was all along will sit back and shake our heads over the next four years as the adolescents wake up to the harsh reality that he didn’t write any of those catchy songs himself and his talent was laughably overrated. I wonder if it will hurt as much as when you found out there was no Santa Claus; your parents had been lying to you and playing you for fools all along. I can only hope (get it? hope! haha!).
Of course, I could be wrong. He could be awesome. The way I see it, I win either way.
FSP knows that Brady will shill for his boys like he has done for the GOP legis caucus if he gets the IC job. We can’t afford an insurance-the-corporate-loving-way schmuck as IC. Who wouldn’t imagine that Brady will do anything but keep the corporates first. Mike, you objected to Gene Reed on those principles….now you are walking around in blinders. GOP=deep pockets getting deeper through government.
Hey, this just in:
http://www.delawareonline.com/article/20081102/BUSINESS/811020324/1003
“Health insurance companies had invited the physicians to hear a pitch about the benefits of prescribing generic drugs instead of their pricier, name-brand competitors.
Meet the flip side of a concern about corporate influence in the doctor’s office that’s been criticized when the pharmaceutical industry entices doctors to prescribe brand-name drugs. Under pressure, that industry has since reined in its promotional efforts.
But insurance companies are allowed to push doctors toward cheaper prescriptions, frequently by offering the physician a form of bonus, a cut from the savings that insurance companies get when doctors prescribe generic drugs.”
Nancy, you fool. I objected to Gene Reed because there was a presence of FACT surrounding the allegations. Where are the FACTS surrounding your allegations that lead DIRECTLY to John Brady? Sure, he defended Wagner, but that’s what lawyers do! He was a House lawyer for Republicans at the time! You offer nothing here outside of your usual fact-absent insinuations and innuendo. If you’ve got something, BRING IT, but you in no way have succeeded in attempting to equivocate John Brady to Gene Reed. You’re acting like a fucking nut.
Acting like?
The Republican Party of Delaware is so Cheneyesque in the way they distort the truth and use outright lies to try to bolster their popularity in Delaware. I would think they might’ve learned a thing or two from previous campaign seasons, but it looks as though the ‘new gaurd’ under the leadership of Tom Ross is still using the same failed play book used by the previous champion of sleaze, Terry Strine. Not only is the Clatworthy campaign a case on point. So is the Ramone campaign. Mike Ramone has allowed the Republican Party to issue piece after piece of lie-filled literature against Patricia Creedon while Pat has refused to counter back with any of the known negatives about Mike Ramone. I hope the people of the 21st Rep District aren’t duped by Mike Ramone because if they are, we will suffer every time a vote comes up in the House. This man continues to say he has had nothing to do with all of the negativity directed at Pat and continues to try to turn out a line that she’s doing it to make him look bad. Pahleeeeeze, Mike! How stupid do you think people are anyway? I don’t know any campaign with pockets so deep that they can put out good stuff on themselves while trashing the other side…especially when the literature says ‘paid for by the Republican Thugs of Delaware’. Mike says he hasn’t approved any of the pieces. My question for him would be: Why have you lost control of your campaign? Ultimately, the candidate is responsible for every piece of literature that gets delivered to a door. And, since some of the pieces are hand-delivered by gnomes in yellow Mike Ramone T-shirts, it’s real clear who’s in control.
If any of you live in the 21st District or know someone who does, tell them to vote for Pat Creedon. Let Mike know you’re on to his lies. Maybe he’ll go the way of Mike Protack and not run again.
After 2006, Mike Ramone gets a free pass to do whatever he wants.
No way, Dave. Two wrongs don’t make a right. If Mike is saying he hasn’t approved any of those pieces, then I’m with PI, he’s obviously lost control of his campaign.
GOPerheads protect the bottom line. The money, honey.
I have a few Republicans in mind that deserve to be re-elected. Dick Cathcart is one as is Laura Brown. The mess down in So-Canal needs GOP blood to intervene.
But the “Brady is a lawyer and just does what lawyers do” meme has never flown in my book.
I have always held, for instance, that Matt Denn’s acting as Minner’s counsel in the early 2000’s in protecting, GASP, special interests – the corporate pollutors…was a job he could have shed should he have been reluctant to defend that HIGH DEM position.
But…but..but Mike, I thought you were supposed to be a GOPerhead shill? You need to read page 242 in the GOPerhead shill handbook and get back to me.
(and in real life, I don’t disagree with you on the two wrongs don’t make a right thing. I have no idea what’s going on in that race, so I can’t comment on anything other than the savage treatment Ramone received at the hands of Sokola, Blevins & Co. last time.)
DTR with Brady’s bunch? Nancy, really. Are you serious. The station is to the left. Why do you think I brought Fulcher and Flaherty on? Why did I bring Mike Matthews on? The guys and gals at Delaware Liberal will tell you I tried to bring them on too. They rejected me. I still love them though. Everyone knows I don’t play partisan politics, but I am a dem. Maria is a solid news person and a has gone after republicans and democrats alike. She has been a strident supporter of the environment in Delaware. She fought for the wind deal. Burris is Burris. He’s great entertainment and has been anything but partisan. Anyone who has listened know that. But to suggest we’re in the bag for anyone is nonsense and is typical of people unable to make a legitimate argument for a candidate. Blame the messenger is one of the lamest excuses there is.
The fact is, KWS “resume” is suspect at best. The judgments are real. Still running for office with one of those judments unpaid and raising money to run for office instead of getting a job is just plain wrong. The 9/11 excuse smells and the idea we would elect someone who might not be able to do the job should a crisis arise is downright dangerous. A year off in despair? Delaware deserves better.
Sorry, Karen Weldin Stewart was on the NAACP Teevee show this afternoon. She didnt say ONE word about health care for Delaware. All she talked about was “her insurance companies and she has inside knowledge about them”. She has no plan for health care for Delaware except “pooling” which is as stupid as it is foolish. It won’t work never has and never will. Not saying Brady would do better on the health care issue, but she certaintly hasnt even mouthed the word “universal”. How much is she in touch with the democratic platform?
Regardless of anything in any past campaign, Ramone does not have the right to act and deny in this campaign. He needs to pony up to his responsibility and participation in a smear campaign. If he cannot control his campaign, he doesn’t need to legislate. His smear tactics are bad enough but that he lies about taking part is something that should even concern people of even his own political party. There is already enough of that kind of crap going on with people we don’t seem to be able to get rid of in Dover. Why in God’s name would we want to nurture that kind of behavior by rewarding it with a victory? Come on.
LOL. I love this thread!
That John Brady is some sort of corporate or party puppet is pure fantasy. To insinuate that he furtively serves some narrow interest is just willful ignorance of the man’s extensive track record of serving everyday Delawareans, in both professional and public life.
He is certainly one of the most conscientious, thoughtful, and fair-minded attorneys I have ever encountered. He has an almost encyclopedic knowledge and understanding of law and public policy in Delaware.
Brady also has true compassion for people and has shown selflessness in service to others that reflects a remarkable character, in my estimation.
The amount of pro bono legal work this man has done throughout his 17-year law career is so voluminous that it would put a public interest lawyer to shame. It doesn’t take a lawyer to know the sacrifices are real and personal in doing such unpaid, usually-difficult legal work.
John’s generous contributions of his time, talent, and treasure have served the cause of justice as much as charity. His demonstrated personal commitment to ensuring justice is not a function of wealth or status speaks volumes about who and how he will serve if elected.
John stands out to me as a public servant in the truest sense. He has shown he doesn’t need an office or a title or public emoluments to prompt his contribution to public good. This is exactly the ethic and the spirit we need in public officials across the board.
What the? Did someone mischannel DTR all of a sudden? Can’t you people just argue in the hallway?
A Democrat will represent Delaware in Congress soon. It is worth waiting another few years for a decent one.
Karen Weldin Stewart has hair but little else between her ears. John Brady has the opposite problem.
Otherwise, I’m voting straight Democratic.
Re. the pathetic 9/11 excuse KWS invented to weasel out of her creditors’ judgments against her: She never worked for the company that was wiped out in the attack and therefore didn’t know the people she claims to have been mourning. And supposedly mourning to such an extent that she couldn’t work for at least a year and wasn’t able to pay her bills. Do you people really want a lying bullshit artist like KWS with nothing between her ears who can’t prove the employment she claims to have had over the past 20 years except for her jobs in retail?
She was defeated on the same issues when she ran for IC in 2000 and 2004, exept she didn’t bring 9/11 into it then. This is her last shot because she is unemployable in the private sector. Did Delaware voters forget already? Let’s hope not.
At this point you are either preaching to the choir or talking to a brick wall.
Get some Brady door hangers and walk around your neighborhood. You’ll feel better and have an actual impact.
I’m not involved with Brady’s campaign but do think he is the best choice given the alternatives. The information I’ve provided over the past weeks has definitely made an impact, and I feel just fine already, thank you. I’ve known KWS for more than 15 years and know what she’s all about. It’s not about representing the people of Delaware, trust me. If she’s elected, you’ll find in the not too distant future that she’s too stupid and greedy to keep her self-interest under wraps for too long.