Where was Delaware Dem? Why, I was rounding up Republicans, just as Nemski thought. Seriously though, I was canvassing yesterday, standing on the corner of 15th & Market in Philadelphia all day on Friday, working without my laptop on Thursday, and celebrating the Phillies’ world championship on Wednesday. Life, sports, work, and politics all conspired to prevent me from posting. But now I am back and ready to opine on how the greatest and most exciting and most important election of my lifetime will play out.
First, the Presidency:
>2008 Election Contest: Pick Your President – Predict the winner of the 2008 presidential election.
Barack Obama will win the Presidency in an electoral college landslide. On the popular vote front, he will win by 8: 53% to 45%.
In Delaware, Obama-Biden will win with 57% of the vote.
Second, the U.S. Senate:
North Carolina: Hagan defeats Dole
Colorado: Udall defeats Schaffer
New Mexico: Udall defeats Pearce
Alaska: Begich defeats Stevens
New Hampshire: Shaheen defeats Sununu
Virginia: Warner defeats Gilmore
Minnesota: Franken defeats Coleman and Barkley
Oregon: Merkley defeats Smith
Georgia: will go to a runoff since neither Chambliss and Martin will cross 50%. Martin wins the runoff in December.
This will give the Democrats 59 seats outright (58 Democrats plus Bernie Sanders (I)). If Lieberman stays in the Democratic caucus, we will have 60. But I expect him to join the Republican Party when he loses the Homeland Security chair.
In Delaware, I will of course be voting for Senator Joe Biden, and he will win handily, with over 65% of the vote.
Third, the U.S. House.
Castle will reelected handily. I am voting for Karen Hartley Nagle, but she has no chance to win. The Democrats will gain anywhere between 25 and 35 seats, which gives them a chance to have a 270 majority.
Fourth, Jack Markell will be elected over Bill Lee easily, with 62% of the vote.
Fifth, Matt Denn will be elected over Charles Lamont du Pont Copeland by a closer margin, 52% to 48%.
Sixth, I have no idea how the Insurance Commissioner race will play out. I will be voting for Karen Weldin Stewart for two reasons. First, she does have experience in the insurance regulation industry over her career, and I view that experience as qualifying. Second, I simply do not trust any Republican anywhere in enforcing regulation and advocating for consumers. If a Republican were for enforcing regulations and advocating for consumers, he would be a Democrat. John Brady may talk a good game, but I do not believe him. Nor do I trust him. For he is a Republican. Yes, Karen Weldin Stewart is a flawed candidate, but I can trust her to enforce the regulations we have and to advocate for us. This will be a close race. The winner will probably not cross the 50% mark, given Savage’s presence in the race.
I will predict the Delaware General Assembly tomorrow. Needless to say, the Democrats will gain in both Houses.