Probability Table For Mike Castle’s Future
There are only a few things that can happen and not many variables to contend with, so it is easy to build a probability table for the outcomes regarding Mike Castle.
Then we can quibble over the probability of each outcome, but the short version is there is only a slim chance that Mike Castle will be in elected office after the next election. A 20% chance to be exact.
Castle can chose one of three options. He can run for his House seat. He can run for the Senate seat, or he could retire. The other variables effecting the outcome are the choices faced by the Democrats. They only have two. They can either run an “A List” person against Castle or a “Non-A List” person.
So these are the possible combinations:
1) Castle Runs for his House Seat against an “A List” Dem = 30% prob.
2) Castle Runs for his House Seat against a “Non-A List” Dem = 20% prob.
3) Castle Runs for the Senate seat against an “A List” Dem = 10% prob.
4) Castle Runs for the Senate seat against a “Non-A List” Dem = 0% prob.
5) Castle retires for public life = 40% prob.
Note that option 4 has a zero percent chance of happening since the Dems are not going to give away a Senate seat. Of the remaining possible outcomes, there is only one that I would consider a “bad” outcome and that is number 2.
That is the only scenario in which Castle might win re-election. The question now is, how do we hedge against item number 2 from coming to pass?
We hedge against #2 by getting a good candidate. They don’t necessarily have to be an A-lister, but we need to get them started now and get them funded. A non-A lister will become an A-lister if they prove they can raise money.
My wife told Carney about my video. The reaction was positive. In my opinion, the only thing that would stop Castle from getting a real challenge by Carney or another A-Lister would be Tom Carper.
Small donations and a huge grass roots base… thats what did it for Obama and Markell…
what are those predictions based on? I’m not questioning your infinite wisdom Jason, *tips hat* just wonderin’
to some extent I was just filling in some numbers. I’m solid on the 0% for the senate run against a non-A-lister.
As for the others, there is some play. For example if Mike says flat out “I’m running for re-election for my seat.” that might increase the probability of option 2 and decrease option one a bit.
I think that the 40% chance of him quitting is about right.
good ’nuff for me
“to some extent I was just filling in some numbers.”
Some?
It is easy to be snarky, but the snark is not very enlightening.
If you think my percentages are off I’d like to know where.
Overall chance of Castle running again: 60%
Overall chance of him running for the Senate: 10%