House Races to Watch WikiPost: 3/7/09
Here are the Delaware house races to watch according to the DL contributors. We’ll be updating and reposting this throughout the year as political fortunes rise and fall. Let us know where we’ve screwed up in the comments.
STATE REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT 2
Hazel Plant (D) has held this seat almost forever. Her strongest challenge came from local activist Donald Farrell in 2006 who garnered 25% of the vote in this crazily gerrymandered district. She did have a challenger in 2008, Robert Brown from the Independent Party of Delaware, who got 5.7% of the vote. This is a Definite Dem Hold District, but signs are that Representative Plant may not run again. She is quite ill and there is an expectation of new blood for this seat. The only thing to watch about this seat is who steps up to run. Rumors are flying fast and include one of Rep. Plant’s sons, City Councilperson Stephanie Boulden and Theo Gregory. The maneuvering for this seat (if Plant retires) will be interesting, but D’s Hold
STATE REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT 6
Tom Kovach (R) snuck in while the D’s in this Democratic district slept. I don’t think we’ll be sleep walking in this very Dem district next time. D’s Pick up.
STATE REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT 7
Byron Short (D) got 59% to James Bowers 41%. This race has been voted the “Most Likely to Fall Off the Races to Watch List.” D’s hold.
STATE REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT 8
Quinton Johnson (D) got 57.2% against Martha Sturtevant by getting handed the keys Bethany Hall Long’s machine. You will not hear much from Mr. Johnson and that’s how the 8th RD likes it. D’s Hold.
STATE REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT 9
Dick Cathcart (R) weathered the Dem wave with 53% in a slightly Dem district. Unless someone comes out to the blue with a huge war chest. R’s Hold.
STATE REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT 10
Dennis Williams (D) edged out Bob Valihura 50 % to 49% I’d have to call this a toss-up at this point.
STATE REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT 13
John Mitchell (D) beat THE BLUE ENIGMA PARTY’s Jeffery Brown by 90%. Tossup (?)
STATE REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT 18
The R’s will be gunning for Mike Barbieri who knocked off Spence with 52% of the vote. The district is Dem though and Spence is no longer an incumbent. Dems Hold
STATE REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT 20
Why the Dems gave Nick Manolakos a pass in this district is a mystery. Leans R
STATE REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT 24
Daniel Basara (D) gave Bill Oberle a scare in “blue wave” election year. R’s Hold.
STATE REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT 27
Like Barbieri, Earl Jaques (D) has a target on him. Like Barbieri – Jaques stays. D’s Hold.
STATE REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT 29
Thornburg (R) is living on borrowed time. If Paradee runs again he’ll probably take it. Right now...Leans R
STATE REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT 31
Freshman Darryl Scott (D) will hold the seat unless the R’s do some inspired recruiting. Dems Hold
STATE REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT 32
Brad Bennett (D) Dems hold. (What district does a certain Republican up and coming Kent County Levy Court Commissioner live in?) If it is Bennett’s this will be the marquee match-up. On the other hand, the R bench is so weak they might have to run him statewide. Dems Hold
STATE REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT 38
There needs to be one surprise retirement, why not Gerald Hocker (R) ? R’s Hold (unless Hocker quits).
STATE REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT 41
If John Atkins(D?) avoids the law, he keeps his seat. Dem’s (?) hold.
Senate Races to watch to follow.
Tags: wikipost
Is Bob Valihura going to run again?
I don’t know. It was so close I guess I just assumed he would. He is young(ish).
We’ll be working hard in the 24th. It may have been a blue wave, but the district has more registered Ds.
I wasn’t trying to disparage your efforts. Is Basara going again? If so that is more “Leans R” than “R Holds.”
Registration: 6,421 Dems out of 12,591 (only 50%) but over half of the remaining don’t want to be considered Republicans. On the other had incumbency is huge.
When I update this I’ll add the registration totals for each RD.
1. UI’s work in the 24th will be critical. A good campaign by a stronger candidate than Basara could put Oberle on the ropes.
2. Valihura needs a steady paycheck; might not be in a position to devote the time to a comeback.
3. Manolakos should be safe.
4. Oberle won by 600 votes – 100 of them from the phony Working Families Party, which also endorsed Spence and Lofink.
District 20: Manalakos is a hugely popular former middle-school principal and a social moderate with such a gigantic support base among former parents at his school (and enjoying status as a Red Clay School Board critic) with the same relationship toward Sen. Dave Sokola as Castle has with Carper that you will look for a long time for a Dem with a really good chance to run against him. I know of several of who have been approached and essentially looked at the troops Nick can muster and said, “No way.”
The seat will probably go Dem when Sokola retires, because that year I expect Manalakos will make a run for Senate. He won’t be as much of a lock there, but will have at least a 50-50 chance.
El Somnambulo’s take is a little different.
As many know, ‘Bulo spends time with R’s who, like him, migrated to Delaware after their time on the Lucha Libre circuit was over. This R ( part of a tag-team called the ‘Bipartisanos’) tells the Beast Who Slumbers that Bill Oberle, Pam Thornburg, Dick Cathcart and George Carey will likely take their autographed lifesized Pete duPont posters (mass-produced at Blue Hen Promotions) and go home.
That would make Oberle’s seat a guaranteed flip, assuming that the district committee truly has rid itself of Oberle’s biggest fans, like Marty Dennison; and Thornburg and Cathcart’s seats both likely flip unless Paradee doesn’t run again. George Carey is from Sussex County (aka ‘Mars’) , so ‘Bulo won’t even hazard a guess there.
El Somnambulo thinks that Kovach could win reelection, depending on who the D’s put up. He’s got some solid networks in the community, and if he serves more like Dave Ennis than Wayne Smith, ‘Bulo considers him a modest favorite, especially in a non-Presidential year.
7 is safe unless Short opts to challenge Cathy Cloutier for the Senate.
The 10th and 31st are clearly the most vulnerable seats for the D’s, and both for the same reason. Both D’s got swept in as part of the blue tide and in spite of lackluster campaigning on both their parts.
If they remain passive and out-of-sight now that they’re in office, they will truly be out-of-sight after the 2010 elections. And it will be no great loss. And they will have nobody but themselves to blame.
A mass Republican exit from public life would be a welcomed sight, but can they make the jump in this economy?
I doubt it.
A mass Republican exit from public life would be a welcomed sight, but can they make the jump in this economy? I doubt it.
Why not? There is no shortage of bullshit consulting and lobbying no-show positions, even now. They have already done the work for their patrons, now they just have to cash in their chips. Same is probably true for a fair number of Delaware Dem elected officials.
Clearly that last part is true. As the sage Donviti points out, they are all politicians.
Added Rep District 2 — it is only interesting for who steps up to the seat, and you can edit to Twitter size if you want, Jason.
Well, Thornburg has been ‘seeing’ a prominent figure in the banking community for some time. It’s serious, and he ain’t moving to ‘Bumbleep, Kent County’.
Oberle can probably just take orders for his wife’s company, Blue Hen Promotions (wait, he’s already doing that?). Memo to Isotope: If he runs, wrap that Blue Hen Promotions deal around his neck. It’s the Delaware Way personified. Check out how much in contracts that firm has gotten from the State.
Cathcart must have 3 or 4 pensions coming to him. Unless he thinks the R’s can win back the House, he’ll probably leave. And, yes, return as a lobbyist.
And Carey is 120 years old, although ‘Bulo isn’t sure what that means in Mars years.
Cathcart isn’t going to leave soon; a lot of his status and power at DSU is dependent upon maintaining his seat.
Great additions all. No need to edit down Cassandra – my flea-like attention span is not a good baseline to work from.
If Steve Newton is correct, then his opponent must wrap THAT around his neck.
Becky Walker is one of those good candidates on paper, but she ran a horrible campaign. It’s an oversimplification to think that, if he survived in a blue wave year, Cathcart’s untouchable.
Cathcart’s Delaware Way ties must be used against him. It’s probably why Nancy Wagner got beat. It’s fair game. Use it.
I can tell for sure that Denison is not associated with the 24th committee anymore. I don’t think Basara will run again. I’m not even sure he still lives in the district (his phone number didn’t work). We’re going to work hard to find a quality candidate to take on Oberle. I’ve heard the same as ‘Bulo, that some Rs may not want to take on some hard-fighting candidates, especially long-timers that are only now getting used to being in the minority.
Blue Hen promotions? It’s very familiar. Wasn’t there some recent political scandal involving them?
UI: Your wish is ‘Bulo’s command. And this is just the beginning:
http://www.delawareonline.com/article/20070619/NEWS/109170002
Thank you!
I’ll never figure out how the News Journal decides to keep some articles online and delete others.
I find the NJ website in general very hard to navigate.
The race in the 29th District had some interesting aspects. It seemed strange that in several polling places, more absentee votes were cast for Representative than for President. This statistical anomaly remains unexplained.
Had her opponent not given a party label, he could have been mistaken for a Republican on the basis of his stated views.
Oberle is a bit of a jerk and seems to be following in the footsteps of his father. He could use a primary challenge.
George Carey is definitely expected to retire this time around from the 36th district seat. Look for Lynn Rogers, former Dem Sussex councilman, to run.
Hocker’s not going to retire anytime soon. He’s got that seat for as long as he wants it.
Also consider what would happen as a result of possible Senate retirements, particularly Thurman Adams and George Bunting. I think Adams hinted at the latter in an NJ article over the summer, and Bunting’s had some major health problems, though he seems to be doing OK now. Joe Booth is in Adams’ district, and Hocker’s in Bunting’s.
Tip: If you can’t find an older NJ article on its site, use Google and select the cached version. It often works well.
Theo Gregory would have to move to be able to run in the 2nd Rep District, I think.
Last I heard he lived in the Washington St- Baynard Blvd area in the 1st Rep District.
People have moved to run for office,so it could happen,but it’s one more detail if he still lives off Baynard Blvd.
Yes, please, Art. Put up a primary challenge to Oberle.
Oberle is more progressive than about 2/3 of the Dems we have in the General Assembly.
Also, Cathcart gone? what ever happened to that racial discrimination suit against him at DSU? Was that quieted up?
One potential surprise R retirement not mentioned is Biff Lee. He has the magic 20 years for pension purposes this term, faced a stiff challenge for the first time in forever and was forced out of leadership. He is not having fun in the minority. He would like to follow NASCAR full time, sources tell me. Should he choose to run again, I think he holds the seat. Should he not, his previous challenger holds a good shot due to name recognition and the fact that there has been no heir apparent coming from Lee’s camp.
Carey is there as long as he wants. There is a rumor that Lynn Rogers might become an R and run for the seat if George retires, but I find that unlikely in the current climate, as that district is changing its stripes fast. Rogers will not run as long as Carey stays, no matter what party.
I agree that Hocker is also there as long as he wishes and if Bunting does not run for re-election to the Senate, Hocker will step up.
Thuman Adams is as good as retired when it comes to the next election. Though Booth will be the favorite for the R’s don’t count out Wilson (of the Dave variety, not the bat shit crazy county councilman) to challenge for the R nomination because the district better suits his base, whereas Booth would only be keeping G-town from his rep seat if he ran. The D’s will likely be lining up to run for Adams seat, but do not expect any jostling until Adams says he’s done.
A potential surprise D retirement would be Bob Gilligan. It depends on how much fun he’s having as Speaker. Attaining that post was his life’s ambition. Now that he has it, it may not be all it’s cracked up to be, especially if the economy remains in the ditch. If he does retire, look for Pete Schwartzkopf to be Speaker.
My guess is Bob Valihura will run again. He is keeping up the public meeting schedule mostly and is still pursuing some of his prior legislative goals. I think Dennis Williams is a sitting duck. He was an anomaly caused by the blue wave, though Murphy did give Valihura a serious challenge two years ago, too.
I agree some of the more interesting races may be in Kent County, especially if Eric Buckson gets in the mix.
Great fodder for the “Senate Races to Watch” post, also…
He (Biff Lee) would like to follow NASCAR full time, sources tell me.
What a loser.
Dave Wilson would be a natural for the Republicans, but he might get some flack for only having served one term in the House before wanting to jump up. The pension stuff might be dug up to hurt him as well.
Joe Booth would only bring in a teeny sliver of Georgetown, too – most of the senate district would be new to him. So that would be an uphill battle.
Here’s a sleeper possibility for Adams’ seat, as a placeholder or something else… former state Rep. Ben Ewing, who retired because of cancer but is now A-O-K, apparently.
Biff Lee’s got it as long as he wants it. The question is whether he has the fire in the belly. If not, look for his brother, Randy, to run. He’s a town councilman and works for the state fire marshal.
Former House atty Patrick Vanderslice may also pop up as a candidate for Lee’s seat, if Lee does not run.
One possible D candidate for Adams seat is Lynn Rogers as well.
There is another potential surprise D retirement, one ‘Bulo would not wish to see. One of the more progressive D’s could retire if his/her spouse chooses to retire and move closer to his/her/their family. The Beast Who Slumbers will leave it at that for now.
I’m fairly certain that only a handful of voters in the 40th know who in the world Patrick Vanderslice is. Name recognition is crucial – though he does have a kick-ass name!
And while Rogers is in Adams’ district, just like Booth, most of it would be new to him. The power in that district is in the Greenwood-Bridgeville nexus.
Finley Jones, another former Sussex Dem councilman, would be a more likely candidate to stand up in that district than Rogers. He’s from Greenwood and has the whole fire company thing going on (as does Rogers).
The House has progressive Democrats beyond Kowalko? 😉
Jones is unlikey to run for Adams seat at this point. He has a Canadian wife and a home in Reho. Both take him away from the district too much…
P.O. – I think I might know you, and El Som. Wish there was a way to get past the handles. We might be able to really put our heads together then. 🙂
Only one person will decide who replaces Thurman Adams…Thurman Adams.
If ‘Bulo had to bet, he’d bet that Thurman’s replacement would have the last name of Adams.
He has a grandson who is now working for the State Senate. Funny how that happens.
OTOH, the legislative job would give him more flexibility than the council seat. You only have to be in Dover – what, less than half of the year?
I think the likelihood of The Beast or me giving up our handles is slim and none. And I get the none part of that.
Earl Jacques is a progressive in my book. I think this question should be asked of anyone running or an incumbent. Will you promise to support the Delaware and the US Consitution? Will you begin to hold town meetings and listen to the people, and turn your backs on the corporate elites?
If you want change in this State then we have to end the State Chamber of Commerce, the Del. Public (Private) Policy Insitute, Big Pharma, Big Banksters/Credit Card Companies, Big Developers et al, from lobbying against us. We should all be pushing for Campaign Finance Reform so more good citizens can run, and no one is beholden to the corporate elites for contributions. Campaign Finance Reform legislation can be viewed at deinformedvoters.org.
Jacques a progressive?!? Holy God you’ve got to be kidding! Ever asked him about his support for gay rights? Ever heard his diatribe about not wanting “those people” living in workforce housing in his district? As for Kowalko, he may be a progressive, but he’s a blowhard, through and through.
Theo Gregory would have to move to be able to run in the 2nd Rep District, I think.
No doubt John Tobin knows better than me about this — I thought I had heard that he lived off of Market St someplace. Which could still place him outside of the 2nd depending on where outside he lives. But I really could be wrong. And I should be clear that all of my entry for the 2nd is nothing but rumor mill stuff at this point.
I don’t know whether it’s father or son being discussed here, but both Theo Gregory Jr. and Sr. are listed as living in the 1st Representative District, according to http://pollingplace.delaware.gov.
No Name Anon! I have never heard Earl express any of those things, but you can bet your sweet bippi I will, so you better be right and not just being a blowhard.
Kowalko a blowhard?…you are a complete fool.
It would be nice to tell Earl just who the nameless person is that made such an allegation…no name, maybe you should just refer to yourself as “shit thrower”.
Ouch!, Blowhard through and through. Occasionally, of course,when blowing hard can bring down the house of straw that the conservative little piggies are living in or when blowing hard can circulate some clean fresh air and dissipate the fog that shrouds the secrecy of government. I stand on my record anon and even use my own name.
John Kowalko
Thanks anon — I’m not sure if Theo is the Sr or Jr, but am glad you found the right info. Will make sure to remind the individuals who have told me this rumor about his residency challenges.
Don’t worry JK. Everyone knows that you’ve done more for the state already than those sad sacks that have been there for 25 year.
Those close to Gilligan always said he would retire after gaining the speaker’s position. His health has not been good, at least in his own telling. His decision could hinge on whether the Rickmans are still holding open a six-figure job for him at Delaware Park.
Geezer speaks directly to my point about the economy holding down the number of retirements.
I’m no Delaware Park insider, but I know they are letting people go.
…Dick Cathcart…will likely take their autographed lifesized Pete duPont posters (mass-produced at Blue Hen Promotions) and go home
Smitty wonders…is it time…is the time now? Smitty in ’10?
On a parting note to ‘bulo…some day we can discuss why Walker hasn’t been able to take advantage of blue tides. It has nothing to do with her as a person. I would never take a cheap shot like that. I also am not saying she won’t ever win. What I am saying is why ’06 and ’08 didn’t work. Of course, as long as my choice remains, I zippa my lippa…um…Corona has been known to loosen me up, tho. 😉
Smitty is right about Rebecca Walker as a person. It’s not a personal slam at all.
‘Bulo thinks she just has so many other priorities that she didn’t focus on building an effective organization and in doing the door-to-door that’s required in a local race.
Political people with far more experience than ‘Bulo (and who really wanted her to win) just threw their hands up & walked away from her campaign.
In general, if the candidate is not willing to do everything in their power to win, volunteers and would-be contributors see this and react accordingly.
‘Bulo…but seriously…if you ever want to pick my brain about RD9 politics and campaign management, Corona does loosen me up.
C-O-R-O-N-A.
Crap, we don’t even have to talk about politics.
C-O-R-O-N-A.
…and nachos…they’re good, too.