Democratic Sen. Arlen Specter?
First off, do we want him? I don’t.
Markos posits that the only way that Specter wins reelection is by becoming a Democratic or an Independent caucusing with the Democrats. This declaration is based on several facts: 1) While Pennsylvania has become a pretty reliable Democratic state at the federal level, the PA Republican Party membership is tilted to the extreme far right, since many moderate PA GOPers left the party in 2008 to vote in the Obama v. Clinton primary; 2) party primaries are a closed affair, meaning only registered GOPers can vote; and 3) Specter barely beat Toomey last time by 1% in 2004. Since Toomey is running again, and since most of Arlen’s moderate Republican support is no longer Republican, if Specter runs for reelection as a Republican, he will lose.
Markos assumes a party switch is in the works.
I beg to differ. I forsee a Lieberman. He will vote with the Democrats on the budget and on Employee Free Choice Act, get attacked by Rush and the lemmings, and he will leave the party. But he will not become a Democrat. He will become an Independent, and run as such in 2010 and win. But like Lieberman, he will still caucus with his old party. Arlen Specter has simply been too prominent a Republican Senator for far too long to be trusted in the Democratic Caucus, and I don’t think he would feel comfortable there either. He may have no more friends in the Republican Caucus, but at least he knows them.
FWIW yesterday on Smerconish Specter said he would not change parties or go independent, that he intended to run for re-election as a GOPer and risk the primary
He says that now. But there is no risk about it. He will have a primary. Toomey has announced.
Soon, he will see poll numbers showing him losing handily.
And hell, he may even stay in the primary and, like Lieberman, lose, and still run for reelection.
I am not sure if PA has the “Sore Losers” law like Delaware does and Connecticut didn’t.
PA’s closed primary hurts Specter. Toomey will win given what’s left of the GOP in PA.
As far as Specter switching parties. I’m conflicted on this issue, but maybe my thrill at him becoming a Democrat is born out of some petty emotion churning inside me. In the words of Michael Steele (who is really worthy of another post given what’s going on with him!) My bad.
I suppose I would take Specter’s vote until 2010, for that way we will have 60 votes and Republicans can finally slither into the irrelevance they deserve. But after 2010, when the Dems will have well over 60 votes without Specter, I don’t know if I want to be saddled with a Philadelphia Republican who still sounds like he is from Texas.
If Specter runs as an “I” he’ll have to beat a “D” and an “R” in the general.
I think it worked for Lieberdouche because he was going from “D” to “I” and he was able to trick a bunch of “D’s” into voting for him. If Specter bolts his party I think he might be done.
But a lot of Ds vote for Specter in PA in the general. Indeed, the moderate GOPers who left the GOP and are now Independent or Democrats would vote for him.
IMHO, Specter could win the General as an I or a D. The issue truly is the primary as an R.
Agree with Rebecca — Specter’s real hurdle is to survive his primary.
Atkins beat everybody.
Why not Specter?
I think Specter looks safe right now because he’s actually got two announced primary opponents, both on his right. Normally even an unpopular incumbent will win a three-way primary. William Jefferson survived his and Carolyn Cheeks-Kilpatrick (Kwame’s mother) also survived hers. I forget the name of Specter’s other announced opponent, but I heard it on NPR yesterday.
dd
I think PA law prohibits the Lieberman maneuver; if he goes I he has to get out of the GOP primary.
Well, then, he must declare as an Indie before the primary if he wants to take that course then.
If Specter flipped to Democrat, the field would clear for him. Phila has been voting for him since 1965. He’s like Larry Kane, Sally Starr, Tom Gola. [Gola, the greatest college basketball player in the city’s history, was Arlen’s running mate, for City Comptroller, in 1969 and 1973.]
Specter might not have to leave GOP if Peg Luksik, the candidate UI mentioned, really joins Toomey in the race. A one-issue pro-lifer, she got 13% of the vote in ’94 as third party candidate against pro-choice Tom Ridge and Mark Singel.
The Senate maneuverings are interesting, but the governor’s race is even more fascinating. Two county executives, one an anti-choice Italian from Allegheny, the other a pro-choice Irishman from Lehigh, are positioning themselves in the Democratic race.
If Democrats win for a third consecutive term, it would be unprecedented in at least a century. Since 1950, the Pa. governorship has gone back and forth in 8-year cycles.
Yeah, I fully expect AG Corbett or Rep. Gerlach to be the next Governor of PA, just because of that history, JM.