News Journal Flies to Defend Mike Castle Against Bad News
This editorial framed as a news story is not surprising.
Don’t shade Delaware a fully blue state quite yet
Even though Democrats Barack Obama and Jack Markell easily won in Delaware last November, there still is a Republican to be reckoned with.
According to a poll released Tuesday, U.S. Rep. Mike Castle has more support today than Attorney General Beau Biden, should the two run in 2010 for the U.S. Senate seat vacated by Beau’s father, Joe, just before he was sworn in as vice president.
More support? Really?
Mike Castle was a two-term Governor and has been a congressman for over a decade and Biden keeps him under 50%. That is horrible news for Castle. Having 20 percent undecided on a public official that has served Delaware for over 20 years is horrible news for Castle.
Mike Castle by some accounts is a decent guy, but his party has failed the country. If after serving Delaware for over 20 years, Mike Castle can’t register more than 50 percent in a future Senate his is up Shit Creek. If Thursday’s poll results show him under 50% to retain his house seat against Carney he is up Shit Creek and half dead with buzzards poking at him and the search party called off.
Jason’s Bold Prediction: If John Carney holds Castle under 50% the News Journal will report it on Friday as “good news” for Mike Castle.
Tags: Delaware, Mike Castle
Give it a rest. It just galls you that Mike Castle remains popular despite his voting record. The notion that he had to pull more than 50% for this to be good news is laughable. What about the fact that PPP said they’ve never before found a guy with such high positives from the opposing party? That doesn’t strike you as more significant?
Any incumbent getting ready to run again polling with a less than 50% is vulnerable. Castle does have higher positives, but he doesn’t keep all of those when asked to choose between Castle and Biden. Meaning there is some room to peel off Dem voters.
Which doesn’t mean that Biden is the right guy to run against him to peel off those voters. But that is the task — whoever runs against Castle has to bascially take back the Dem base. (John Tobin does the math here.) If I was Biden (or whoever) and willing to run a damned aggressive campaign, there is a real shot here.
EDIT: the flip side is also true too — there is plenty of opportunity for Castle to bolster his numbers among the Dem base, but I think that is harder in this environment (and also dependent upon who runs against him — if it is KHN, forgetaboutit).
Memo to the News Journal: If an incumbent polls under 50%, he is endangered and vulnerable, and will most likely be defeated.
Politicians usually decide to retire with numbers like Castle’s.
Count me in with the people who don’t think Castle’s 44% is a great result. I don’t think it will keep Carney or Biden from mounting a challenge.
Yes, Jason, Castle has more support than Beau. It’s simple math. Don’t read too much into that statement or your head will explode.
The 50% figure you people keep quoting is the approval rating threshold for re-election, not the number who must say they’ll vote for him. Go back and look at the poll again — Castle’s APPROVAL RATING is 54%, not 44%.