The Times They Are A Changin’
I expect to see gay marriage and marijuana legalized in my lifetime. (I really liked typing that sentence.)
I’ve been feeling this way for quite some time, and, luckily for me, Nate Silver does the math.
Nate on gay marriage:
Unsurprisingly, there is a very strong correspondence between the religiosity of a state and its propensity to ban gay marriage, with a particular “bonus” effect depending on the number of white evangelicals in the state.
Marriage bans, however, are losing ground at a rate of slightly less than 2 points per year. So, for example, we’d project that a state in which a marriage ban passed with 60 percent of the vote last year would only have 58 percent of its voters approve the ban this year.
By Nate’s calculations almost half of the states would vote against a marriage ban by 2012. (Delaware would be ready in the year 2011) I’m not surprised. And while events can happen to change 538’s model, it won’t alter the outcome, only the time line. Gay marriage will come to pass, and the main reason for this will be familiarity. What I mean by familiarity is that in today’s America most people know a gay person. They are part of our families, friends, and co-workers, and once you know someone stereotyping becomes nearly impossible. Those people suddenly have names. Whether you’re gay or straight, it becomes personal. And personal equals important. No wonder the far right is yelling louder. They’re trying to drown out the names of friends and family members being put forth by the opposition. For their only chance of stopping gay marriage lies in removing the individual from their equation.
Even their battle cry rings hollow. Sanctity of marriage? Nobody’s buying it, which leaves the far right preaching to an ever shrinking choir rather than adding converts. Familiarity has cost this group big time. No longer can they demonize the gay community through stereotypes, which explains the mantra “love the sinner, hate the sin.” I remember when this phrase came into the main stream, and hadn’t given it much thought at the time, but now, looking back, I believe this acknowledgment of the individual was the first crack in the anti-gay league’s armor.
Marijuana falls under the familiarity blanket as well, and while, on the surface, it seems a strange to link the two issues there is a correlation. Nate’s chart on this issue is telling.
More important to the policy debate, however, may be the fraction of adults who have used marijuana at any point in their lifetimes. This is a dual-peaked distribution, with one peak occurring among adults who are roughly age 50 now, and would have come of age in the 1970s, and another among adults in their early 20s.
Used marijuana at any point in their lifetime = familiarity. Familiarity = Reefer Madness was a joke. Actually, it was more than a joke – it was a lie. And it was exposed, which never bodes well when trying to influence behavior. Once you lie people tend to stop listening.
The interesting thing about both these issues is they cut across generational lines. Another way of saying that is to realize that younger people are more familiar with gay people and marijuana. They don’t believe the lies.
So, the times they are a changin’, and I couldn’t be happier.
Tags: Gay Marriage, legalized marijuana
Even their battle cry rings hollow. Sanctity of marriage? Nobody’s buying it,
Until divorce rates for self-described “evangelicals” fall below divorce rates for “non-religious” and the loudest mouths among conservatives are all not working on their third spouse, the “sanctity of marriage” argument can’t get much traction.
Amen, Jason. People in glass houses and all.
It’s really worthwhile to read both posts at 538. It’s just showing in mathematical form what we’ve been observing – that younger generations are more culturally liberal and that things change as the older guard retire from political power. Gay marriage was about the only thing that cultural conservatives have still won on, and we can see that is changing as well.
Now conservatives, do you understand why you have lost the culture wars? I have to add – WE TOLD YOU SO.
Crooks and Liars posted the best Newt line…
There is something So Very Wrong with the sentence, “My third wife converted me to Catholicism.”
The other good news – these polls forshadow how badly Republicans are going to lose in 2012.
They’ll rush to be the party of “traditional marriage” and will come off as the cranky, tone-deaf losers that they are.
Jason,
All things being equal I think the Republicans are in for a bloodbath in 2010 and 2012, unless they experience some renewal. But I really think the Republicans’ chances are tied to how well or how poorly the economy is performing.
dude, what…. what? pot is gonna be lega…. wait…. huh? oohh hahahah dude… check out that cat… it’s TOTALLY stoned *cough cough cough*
Sure the Republicans have nothing to offer, but the party in power usually loses seats in the midterm elections. That is a tough trend to buck.
Nate Silver’s articles, especially on gay marriage, empirically verify what many have already intuited. ‘Bulo has two kids in high school, and the issue of homosexuality isn’t an issue at all b/c ‘gay’ is now like ‘blonde’, ‘tall’, or ‘African-American’. It just IS, no big deal.
Gay marriage, yes.
Marijuana, no, thanks. You can’t tell me that your reaction time doesn’t slow down on pot – that a stoned driver isn’t more dangerous than an alert one. All it takes is one hopped-up fucking bonghead asswipe going on a munchie run to get distracted and steer his car into ongoing traffic for other people to get hurt.
I have complete and utter disdain, coupled with a very deep sympathy, for anyone who uses any form of mind- or consciousness-altering substance. And yes, I’m not perfect – I’ve been known to drink soda now and then. I’m weaning myself off. But no coffee, tea, alcohol, tobacco, marijuana, uppers, downers or X for me, thanks. I like to have control of myself.
Marijuana, no, thanks. You can’t tell me that your reaction time doesn’t slow down on pot – that a stoned driver isn’t more dangerous than an alert one.
That’s hilarious. By alert drivers, I guess you mean the ones coming home from a bar at 1 AM.
AI, you might want to add blogging to that “vice” list. It’s addictive. 🙂
Do you see a need to add to the pool of dangerous drivers? Do we have a shortage of drunks this year?
Ask me another time about my position on alcohol. That would take up a whole thread and get me labeled a philistine.
I hear smoking marijuana makes you gay
I don’t blog when I drive. Need a wireless card for that, and I’m too cheap.
so, we should make alcohol illegal? do you recall how well prohibition worked? it’s great that you are sXe, but not everyone chooses to live that way, and as mind altering stuff goes, pot is NOT the same as amphetamines, which by the way are given to kids by doctors by the ton…. it is not the same as opiates, or designer drugs. Of course driving high would be an issue, but we deal with drunk drivers right?
i’m not sure if you have personal experience with “a hopped up fucking bonghead asswipe going on a munchie run” but it is really a gross distortion of what pot is.
what about people suffering from painful terminal illnesses Mr Straight Edge? you have DISTAIN for people who drink coffee? you sir, are a wingnut
a. price,
Take a chill pill, as the kiddies once said! I’m sure someone here can provide you with one.
What the hell is sXe???
I never said that I was trying to tell other people how to live. Just that I oppose the legalization of marijuana because it distorts reality and slows reaction times and thus makes people far more likely to get into accidents.
As for the medical marijuana issue, there are legalized, medicinal painkillers that have worked for years. Don’t fall for that red herring.
People who are prescribed painkillers or mind-altering medications – like amphetimines – are cautioned, ORDERED, even, to stay off the road and not operate heavy machinery. I’ve not heard a single pro-pot person say that it should be considered medicine and put under the same strictures.
They’re for legalization, plain and simple. It would, like, be too much of a downer, dude, to have to go to the doctor to get your buzz on. That would ruin the whole fun, man! Because that’s how the pro-pot people see it – as fun, a way to jump back into their recent college days or further into the ’60s, without fear of the campus cops busting down the door. It’s utter hedonism and complete self-absorption.
sXe is from punk rock. it means a straight edge life style. no drugs, no coffee, etc. so there ya go.
you said you “have distain” for people who use drugs. that is extremely judgmental of you. are people who take a toke at a party, or have a beer when they get home from a long day lumped into the group of lowly hedonistic people? your opposition is all based around driving a car.
and as someone who was given speed for ADD from a doctor, i can tell you… they don’t always know what they are doing, or what side effects could be. and i can say i have no interest in any drug, legal or illegal because of my experience with RX speed. some people like it, and it helps some. i dont judge.
i’ll leave you with this my judgmental friend… without drugs… we’d have no Hendrix NO HENDRIX!!!!!!!!!!!
Legalizing marijuana does not equal to legalizing driving while impaired. Those are two separate issues. In fact, I’m pretty sure DWI and DUI are still illegal despite the fact that drinking alcohol is legal (21 and over).
a.i. – You got off on the wrong foot straightaway when you illogically conflated pot legalization with driving. Almost every innocuous ancillary activity shouldn’t be done whilst also driving. By your logic reading should be illegal. No offense, but that is quite possible the worst argument for anything since Intelligent Design.
That’s just one example, Mr. Gray. I also wouldn’t want a stoner babysitting my children, chopping firewood or riding a bicycle down a busy street. Want me to go on?
Who the heck reads while they’re driving, other than road signs? If you do, you’re a moron, taking not only your life into your hands but also mine. If you need to read a map, pull over.
And yes, our laws are stupid and conflicted – eating while driving is just as dangerous as drinking alcohol – but that’s no reason to ENCOURAGE more addle-pated jackanapes to get behind the wheel.
UI,
They’re only separate issues because alcohol, as an industry, has been more powerful socially and politically than the cannabis industry. Yes, I know prohibition failed. But that doesn’t mean it was a bad thing.
I’m not going out there and campaigning on an anti-pot platform. It’s not a litmus-test issue for me like others are. But any candidate who says they’re in favor of legalization will have to work really damn hard to get my vote.
“that is extremely judgmental of you. are people who take a toke at a party, or have a beer when they get home from a long day lumped into the group of lowly hedonistic people?”
Yep. There are other, better, less harmful ways of having fun and relaxing. No one NEEDS to light a joint or chug a beer. It’s pure stupid social pressure.
And since when is being judgmental a bad thing? You’re sitting in judgment of me in expressing your opinions. So STFU.
DG,
I think sex should also be banned, since having sex while driving is hazardous. It’s also pretty hazardous to do while chopping wood or riding a bike and not a good idea when babysitting kids.
Just wondering – if pot is legal, will it still be legal to deny employment based on a positive drug test for pot?
Good question anon. It shouldn’t be if pot is legal.
Drug tests drive me crazy… let’s start giving breathalyzers after lunch!
“As for the medical marijuana issue, there are legalized, medicinal painkillers that have worked for years. Don’t fall for that red herring.”
You pretty clearly don’t know WTF you’re talking about when you get on your jag about impaired driving. Now you’re claiming that “legalized, medicinal” painkillers are the only things you’ll ever need. Really, just stop digging. I have disdain for anyone who doesn’t have the curiosity to try anything that might change his or her all-too-flawed consciousness.
a.i you narc, i wasn’t judging you for judging. i have no problem with sXe. i just think that unless you have personal experience with drug crazed hippies, or are yourself a recovering drug addict, you have no place to talk.
Drug tests drive me crazy… let’s start giving breathalyzers after lunch!
Oh God, no.
If those who believe that the Gov’t has the responsibility to prohibit things that are “bad for you”, then how can one justify a lassie fair attitude toward gun control?
a.i is high on life…. we should make life schedule 2 and tax the shit out of it. no free highs america!
The altering of the traditional definition of marriage seems to be a broad excursion into political correctness.
Legalization of marijuana may merely be an admission that Reefer Madness was not a peer-reviewed documentary.
As for any tax benefit from legalization, I believe that the cultivation of homegrown requires no great hortacultural talent.
but GOOD shit is hard to grow….. i have heard
The altering of the traditional definition of marriage seems to be a broad excursion into political correctness.
If by political correctness you mean not allowing the gov’t to deprive the benefits of the principle of equal protection upon which the rule of law is founded, then yes I would agree.
But I don’t think you do.
UI,
If you can have sex whilst simultaneously driving, babysitting, chopping wood or riding a bicycle, more power to you. You’re one hell of an athlete, and you ought to be in the Olympics.
But I’d like to have you locked up for reckless behavior, because when you’re focused on your dick or your vagina, you’re not paying attention to what you should be.
Oh, and having sex in front of the kids would be endangering the welfare of a child and whatever the crime is for exposing oneself.
narc
Damn straight! 😉
i’m interested a.i where do you stand on abortion? would you say you are….. pro-choice?
Thanks for the post Pandora. Good one!
If you are babysitting, is it OK to have sex after the kids go to bed? My days of illicit sex are pretty much over, but Bristol Palin wants to know… 🙂
You’re welcome, Rod. It made me happy – or should I say gay? 😉 – to write.
LG, sex after the kids are in bed is a life skill worth learning!
Yeah, but I get smacked if I refer to watching my own kids as “babysitting”
The math doesn’t reflect the reality. Keep dreaming. Liberalism belongs on the ash heap of history. I expect to see its rotting corpse there.
David didn’t click on the link!
David doesn’t need facts in his world.
just guns… i think is this the same gun loving david?
I am split right down the middle. That’s the toughest issue of them all for me. I don’t want the government telling my wife or daughter what to do, but I also believe life begins at conception and can’t comprehend the idea of killing a child.
“As for any tax benefit from legalization, I believe that the cultivation of homegrown requires no great hortacultural talent.”-Art Downs
Actually, beer taxes generate significant revenue even though it is simple to make high quality beer and wine at home tax free. Just ask Jim Koch or Sam Caglione both of whom made their fortunes by selling a recipe developed in their kitchens to folks that pay beer tax.
a.i, it IS a tough issue, but this question answered it for me. in the event the worst should happen…. rape, incest, probably harm to both the mother and child if carried to term… wouldn’t you rather have a safe and legal way out?
“The math doesn’t reflect the reality. Keep dreaming. Liberalism belongs on the ash heap of history. I expect to see its rotting corpse there.”
The statements of a demonstrably ignorant man.