Castle Not Running for Senate.
Get used to that headline. The 2010 general election is approximately 500 days away. Yes, that is a long time and anything can happen, but in this day and age, if a politician does have serious designs on running in an election that is sure to be hotly contested, there would be tell tale signs of those intentions. And the first and foremost is that candidate’s fundraising.
Mike Castle has only raised a relatively paltry $71,500 in the first quarter of 2009. Now, if he had designs on running for the Senate, he is sure to know that he will be facing either former Lt. Governor John Carney or Attorney General Beau Biden, either of whom will be able to raise significant amounts of money for the race, with the added fundraising star power of Vice President Joe Biden if the younger Biden is the candidate.
To put the $71,500 in perspective, if he averages that amount for the rest of the year, he will have only raised $858,000 for 2009. And since a contested election against Carney or Biden will require three months if not more of advertising in the expensive Philadelphia media market, you can see the problem.
It may be sufficient for a reelection campaign to the House if he faces yet another sacrificial lamb. But given the rumors that Carney may also consider running for the House, Castle’s fundraising makes you think he is retiring altogether. Indeed, by the third quarter in 2007, Castle had raised $227,675 and had $1.4 million cash on hand, for only a House reelect where he was not seriously challenged.
Tags: 2010 Election, Delaware, Fundraising, Mike Castle
Those fundraising numbers do not sound like someone gearing up for a big election. Any word on Beau Biden’s or Carney’s numbers?
Researching that now.
$71k…?
It sure sounds like he might be headed for the front porch rocker. So who runs…Protack?
Man oh man I’m looking forward to the blow election of the century.
Great post!!
Jason,
You have my permission to write a post called I TOLD YOU SO when Castle makes it official. 🙂
I did call this didn’t I? Maybe I’ll print out my original post and ask Castle to sign it?
You did, Jason, more than once. You got criticized too. It’ll be sweet, sweet redemption.
On top of that, he would be making more noise in Washington, making himself into a leader of the pack if he was gearing up for an election. He’d be on the forefront of bills, making statements, going on record… and he has done none of that. He’s laying low, being a GOP lemming.
Castle still has $840K on hand, but guess what? He raised just $2,000 from individuals in the first quarter of 2009. The other 69K came from PAC’s.
In other words, he got one, maybe two checks, likely from some old Republican making late-December contributions. The rest was indiscriminate PAC money over the transom.
Never say never, at least until the teary press conference, but it looks like Mike isn’t gearing up to run another Half Marathon. Let’s see what John Carney’s 2Q numbers prove to be.
The FEC does not have numbers on Carney or Biden yet, because, as far as I can tell, neither has a federal campaign exploratory committee opened yet.
And can the rest of us whip you with this post when he files for re-election, or does it only count if he runs for the Senate?
No quarterly statements for Biden or Carney,but here are the year end numbers and what they raised in 2008:
As of Dec 31, 2008 Beau Biden reported having $148.698.95 on hand ,having raised $161,219.41 from Jan 1,2008 to Dec 31, 2008. As of 12-31-2007 Biden had $5,399.84 on hand. Biden raised $161,219.41 while not on the ballot in the middle of his current 4 year term as Attorney General.
John Carney reported having $$6.321.32 on hand as of 12-31-2008.Carney reported raising $212,616.39 between 9-2-2008 and 12-31-2008 , $155,508.64 between 8-11-2008 and 9-1-2008 and $421,965.27 between 1-1-2008 and 8-31-2008. As of 12-31-2007 Carney had $1,000,321.04 on hand. It appears that Carney spent over $1.7 million on his unsuccessful bid to be Governor.
http://elections.delaware.gov/information/campaignfinance/campaignfinance.shtml
I remember some controversy surrounding some of that money… or is that amount not included and does that mean his bid was more costly than 1.7 million?
I don’t know what kavips is referring to specifically, but there was a lot of controversy over money spent on Carney’s behalf by the state party for primary ads.
This is what Carney’s campaign itself raised. Not money raised & spent by others.
I may not be incorrect,but I think the money Kavips refers to is money spent by the party for ads and Bluewater that “did not formally endorse” any candidate, but did laud John Carney for his participation in the Bluewater Windpower deal.
They were the kind of ads that don’t say “vote for …” ,but instead say “call to thank…” It appears that under campaign finance law that makes a difference.
It’s been a few months,so I might not have it exactly correct, but I think that is what Kavips is referring to and that it is not included here.
This is lots of fun and exciting and from your lips to God’s ear but . . .
Let’s not forget that incumbent members of the U.S. House win reelection 95+% of the time with very little effort. They pass the laws and the laws are tilted in their favor. For example . . .
Castle’s staff will flood the district with newsletters and other media about what a great job he is doing representing us. It costs the taxpayers but not the Castle campaign.
The News Journal will continue to report and fawn all over him because he is our elected representative. So will the local radio stations if Castle deigns to give them the time of day. Free to Castle campaign.
All the local media will continue the meme that Castle is a moderate and they will go unchallenged, except here.
He will continue to turn up with those over-sized checks all over the state. Once again, free to the campaign because we’re footing the bill here.
He won in 2008 in a district that polled D+7, Obama beat McCain by 21 points. Granted, he was running unopposed for all intents and purposes, but he won.
I’d say he’s exerting just the right amount of effort at this point. If we actually send out a real candidate to joust with him, Castle can gather his peeps up at the Hunt Club and raise enough in one night to do the job.
For my money, we’ve got one shot at winning this seat and he is John Carney. If John decides to run it will be an uphill battle and we’ll all need to put our shoulder to the wheel and dig into our pockets. Any other candidate won’t stand a chance. And I am tired of chasing windmills — my Don Quixote days are over.
I don’t think Castle will walk away from this seat given the odds in his favor. I also don’t believe he will jump and run against the Biden crowd for the Senate seat. This is a business and you put your resources where you have the least risk and the best rate of return. For Castle that’s back to the House.
Great reality check, Rebecca.
I think the repubs powers-that-be will push Castle to run for the Senate. Castle’s “experience” and “moderate” labels would beat Biden’s name and do-nothing AG record hands-down.
Castle can make a bigger difference in the Senate as a filibuster vote than he can in the house, where he is essentially powerless. Also, Carper would like to have another repub serve with him.
We could be the only state perceived as having a Dino and a Rino.
LOL, a Dino and a Rino. Good one anonone.