I have to admit that I got swept up in the excitment over the thought of Ol’ Pocket Change hanging up his cleats. Rebecca makes a very strong case for why Castle will run and why getting him out will take the right Dem candidate and a lot of hard work.
This is lots of fun and exciting and from your lips to God’s ear but . . .
Let’s not forget that incumbent members of the U.S. House win reelection 95+% of the time with very little effort. They pass the laws and the laws are tilted in their favor. For example . . .
Castle’s staff will flood the district with newsletters and other media about what a great job he is doing representing us. It costs the taxpayers but not the Castle campaign.
The News Journal will continue to report and fawn all over him because he is our elected representative. So will the local radio stations if Castle deigns to give them the time of day. Free to Castle campaign.
All the local media will continue the meme that Castle is a moderate and they will go unchallenged, except here.
He will continue to turn up with those over-sized checks all over the state. Once again, free to the campaign because we’re footing the bill here.
He won in 2008 in a district that polled D+7, Obama beat McCain by 21 points. Granted, he was running unopposed for all intents and purposes, but he won.
I’d say he’s exerting just the right amount of effort at this point. If we actually send out a real candidate to joust with him, Castle can gather his peeps up at the Hunt Club and raise enough in one night to do the job.
For my money, we’ve got one shot at winning this seat and he is John Carney. If John decides to run it will be an uphill battle and we’ll all need to put our shoulder to the wheel and dig into our pockets. Any other candidate won’t stand a chance. And I am tired of chasing windmills — my Don Quixote days are over.
I don’t think Castle will walk away from this seat given the odds in his favor. I also don’t believe he will jump and run against the Biden crowd for the Senate seat. This is a business and you put your resources where you have the least risk and the best rate of return. For Castle that’s back to the House.