Comment Rescue: Castle Reality Check
I have to admit that I got swept up in the excitment over the thought of Ol’ Pocket Change hanging up his cleats. Rebecca makes a very strong case for why Castle will run and why getting him out will take the right Dem candidate and a lot of hard work.
This is lots of fun and exciting and from your lips to God’s ear but . . .
Let’s not forget that incumbent members of the U.S. House win reelection 95+% of the time with very little effort. They pass the laws and the laws are tilted in their favor. For example . . .
Castle’s staff will flood the district with newsletters and other media about what a great job he is doing representing us. It costs the taxpayers but not the Castle campaign.
The News Journal will continue to report and fawn all over him because he is our elected representative. So will the local radio stations if Castle deigns to give them the time of day. Free to Castle campaign.
All the local media will continue the meme that Castle is a moderate and they will go unchallenged, except here.
He will continue to turn up with those over-sized checks all over the state. Once again, free to the campaign because we’re footing the bill here.
He won in 2008 in a district that polled D+7, Obama beat McCain by 21 points. Granted, he was running unopposed for all intents and purposes, but he won.
I’d say he’s exerting just the right amount of effort at this point. If we actually send out a real candidate to joust with him, Castle can gather his peeps up at the Hunt Club and raise enough in one night to do the job.
For my money, we’ve got one shot at winning this seat and he is John Carney. If John decides to run it will be an uphill battle and we’ll all need to put our shoulder to the wheel and dig into our pockets. Any other candidate won’t stand a chance. And I am tired of chasing windmills — my Don Quixote days are over.
I don’t think Castle will walk away from this seat given the odds in his favor. I also don’t believe he will jump and run against the Biden crowd for the Senate seat. This is a business and you put your resources where you have the least risk and the best rate of return. For Castle that’s back to the House.
I think Castle would be very formidable if he ran for re-election to the House. He could be beaten, I think, but it would certainly be an uphill battle. I agree you would really want a big name like Carney to even get the attention of the media. I think it’s a different story if he tries to change jobs and move to the Senate, where the antics of the Senate Republicans could be stuck all over him. I think it’s either House re-election or retirement for Castle.
I think we’ll need to continue to watch his fundraising. Does he pick it up, now that it looks like he’ll have at least one Democratic opponent?
UI wrote:
“I think it’s a different story if he tries to change jobs and move to the Senate, where the antics of the Senate Republicans could be stuck all over him.”
I think you way overestimate how informed the average Delaware voter is. If “Delaware’s Mike Castle” runs as a moderate, bipartisan, experienced, serious legislator who “knows how to work across the aisle” he’ll win the Senate seat walking away. The RNC would pour the big bucks here. And I mean BIG bucks.
People like the “Castle brand,” and they have been willing to split the ticket for him for more than a decade. And, unfortunately, there are people (even at DL) who think that a “loyal opposition party” is a good thing, even if that party is the repubs.
A1, I definitely thinks that’s true unless there’s a big name to bring attention to the race. After all Castle voted anti-stimulus and still belongs to the party of no.
You’re right – the Dems would need a big name – and little Biden isn’t the one, IMHO.
I am curious – would anybody else here have trouble pulling the lever for Biden for Senator in the fall?