This is a brilliant preemptive move by Carney. Now, Castle really has a tough decision to make…does he take on a proven vote-getter and risk going out on his shield a la Bill Roth, or does he retire to ‘spend more time with his family’?
It also forces Castle’s hand in terms of timing b/c, if he delays his decision until 2010, he will make it impossible for the R’s to mount even a credible challenge (Bill Lee, anyone?) while Carney is building a serious warchest. It also means that Castle has to start raising serious $$’s for a big bucks race now.
And, let’s face it, Carney has reinvented himself with this move. The too cautious, deferential, timid ‘wait your turn’ guy has made a bold move that seems out of character for him, which should allay the fears of people looking for some backbone from him.
The Beast Who Slumbers wants to wait and see whether our community can count on Carney, or whether he’ll be a Carper-clone before supporting him.
However, the political operative lurking inside ‘bulo just loves what Carney did today. Carney just upped his game big-time and earned ‘bulo’s admiration for his political acumen.
Well, it is only a good question in some ways. He is one of the Dems best hopes of unseating Castle. So, given a choice between a Blue Dog John Carney and Mike Castle, which would you choose?
Castle is definitely going to run for Senate vs Biden. He wants to lock up the next six years with one race instead of 3. When does Beau get back, he’s going to be way behind on time. I wouldn’t rule out Beau staying in the AG’s office.
Castle v Biden is easier than Castle v Carney. Carney supporters are salvating for a second chance to get him elected. Beau had trouble against Ferris, imagine the trouble he’ll have against Castle.
Sorry, Chuck. While your scenario looks good on paper, a solidly-D state is not gonna elect an R who would play a key role in obstructing Obama’s agenda.
If this race took place in a vacuum, you’d probably be right. But Castle opposed the stimulus package, fer cryin’ out loud. Delaware is not about to elect someone to enable Mitch McConnell to gum up the works.
‘Bulo does hope it’s not Beau, though. Paging Matt Denn…
Who would beat Castle now in a Senate race? Biden? Keep dreaming. And you don’t think the NRC is going to be begging Castle to run? He would be one of their best pick-up opportunities, and they’ll give him big bucks.
Roth was almost dead when Carper beat him, and Carper was a former gov. Biden has his father’s name, but not much else.
Castle has never lost a statewide race, and people have split the ticket for him for years. His “brand” is solid in the mindshare of the DE voter, regardless of the facts.
He could vote against Obama for the next two years and still win against Biden or Denn. Our best hope is that he retires for personal reasons, although I saw him about 3 weeks ago and he looked pretty good.
I agree that this is a very good move for Carney, and does recast him as an actor and not a re-actor.
I agree that Castle will most like retire, rather than run against Carney or Beau (or whomever). Castle would really have to campaign to win in 2010, and I don’t think that he has it in him (when is the last time he worked hard in a campaign?), especially as the Dems are putting up their ‘A list’ folks.
If I were Castle, I’d retire at the end of this term. Where’s the upside for any other course?
This man has won countless elections by wide margins, there is no way Beau Biden or John Carney will scare him. He’s going to run for something. I’m hoping Senate so John can have an easier path.
While it is true that Beau didn’t demolish Ferris, he got 52 and a half percent (133k to 120k) so the Republicans missed their best chance to derail Biden II.
Also, Castle has not won a non-Delaware Way election in 20 years. You could say that he serves at the pleasure of Tom Carper.
I don’t think there is as much truth to the love fest between Carper and Castle as you’d like to say. Castle is going to do what he wants and that’s try to win a seat.
I could just as easily see Castle take his chances against John Carney. One argument against the Castle retirement theory: Just like Pennsylvania’s Arlen Specter, surely Castle’s enough of a Republican not to just hand-over his seat to the Dems. So why signal his intentions, KNOWING this would give such a head start to an establishment Dem like John Carney?
Excellent question, but make sure you go read the whole thing.
My point is that this is the first election in 20 years in which Castle will be running against a big name, well funded, party endorsed, seasoned, campaigner.
If Castle decides to try and keep his seat he will be violating the Delaware Way in the same way Roth did – but not having the good manners to step aside.
If Castle decides to try and keep his seat he will be violating the Delaware Way in the same way Roth did – but not having the good manners to step aside.
Please, take your kids and put them in safe structures. Jason-logic is in effect and is known to spin off dangerous projectiles. Hard Hat area, only.
Ok, Jason, point taken on your first graph with the exception of Biden being a seasoned campaigner or Denn being a seasoned campaigner or a big name.
Regardless of whether he runs for the Senate or House, Castle will have the bigger name and he will be the perceived incumbent. And incumbents are hard to beat. Just ask John Kerry.
In regards to Castle having “good manners” you are forgetting that he is a repub. (RSmitty being the exception. 🙂 )
I don’t know, J. I think there will be some serious vetting of that Senate seat.
BTW, will that 2010 special be for the remaining term (four years), or does it start anew, as a six-year term? Chuck made a comment about locking up for six, so that is why I ask.
I think the special election will only cover the rest of the term, so 4 years. IDK about Castle’s retirement. I just don’t see a Senate race as all that tempting considering Castle’s age and he would be going in as a low seniority member of the minority party. I just don’t see that as that tempting. I think it’s possible that Castle could run for re-election to the House, but he’s got two things to consider: 1) a high name-recognition, highly funded competitor and 2) he’s in the minority party and it’s not likely to switch over in 2010. I’m sure there’s pressure on Castle to run for re-election from the RNC. We’ll see. We need to watch Castle’s fundraising. If he were going to run for Senate wouldn’t he have kicked it up a notch already, especially if he were facing Biden who will already be behind?
1. 2010 Senate election will be for a 4-year run to complete JRBjr’s term.
2. Castle did no fundraising in first quarter. Total contributions from individuals: $2,000. A passive $69K was received from PAC’s. This is not a dataset that presages a forthcoming campaign.
Still, Castle could tap into a wingnut national fundraising gusher if he goes for the Senate because it would be one of very few possible pick-ups and it would be like sticking a thumb in Biden Sr’s eye.
That said, the probability of Castle running for the Senate is: 1 in 4472. The same odds of dying on a bicycle.
There is a third possibility. Castle can still get a job offer from the administration. I put that at 1 in 7. The same odds as being an American without health insurance.
The Hill’sAaron Blake seems to favor Mike Castle. I mean, how many excuses can you make for that cardboard cut out? How many partisan digs can a “reporter” get in before he is considered a columnist?
I, for one, am thrilled.
OK, so now will Castle retire?
Also, I suppose this means that Beau is going for the Senate seat? sigh.
w00t! I’m going to give money right now. Buh bye, Castle!
Ask Carney if he intends to join the Blue Dog caucus before giving him any money….
This is the moment of max leverage. Once he gets into Carper’s bubble reason and common sense will bounce off.
That goes for Beau as well.
Good question, Cassandra.
Castle is probably breathing a sigh of relief that he gets to face Biden instead of Carney in the Senate race.
This is a brilliant preemptive move by Carney. Now, Castle really has a tough decision to make…does he take on a proven vote-getter and risk going out on his shield a la Bill Roth, or does he retire to ‘spend more time with his family’?
It also forces Castle’s hand in terms of timing b/c, if he delays his decision until 2010, he will make it impossible for the R’s to mount even a credible challenge (Bill Lee, anyone?) while Carney is building a serious warchest. It also means that Castle has to start raising serious $$’s for a big bucks race now.
And, let’s face it, Carney has reinvented himself with this move. The too cautious, deferential, timid ‘wait your turn’ guy has made a bold move that seems out of character for him, which should allay the fears of people looking for some backbone from him.
The Beast Who Slumbers wants to wait and see whether our community can count on Carney, or whether he’ll be a Carper-clone before supporting him.
However, the political operative lurking inside ‘bulo just loves what Carney did today. Carney just upped his game big-time and earned ‘bulo’s admiration for his political acumen.
Play ball!
Well, it is only a good question in some ways. He is one of the Dems best hopes of unseating Castle. So, given a choice between a Blue Dog John Carney and Mike Castle, which would you choose?
Easy, LG. Carney!
I agree with El Somnambulo’s take on the strategy of this move. Carney made a Doyle Brunson-esque play.
Castle is definitely going to run for Senate vs Biden. He wants to lock up the next six years with one race instead of 3. When does Beau get back, he’s going to be way behind on time. I wouldn’t rule out Beau staying in the AG’s office.
This is a brilliant preemptive move by Carney. Now, Castle really has a tough decision to make
Unless the decision had already been made.
I’m not sure this is an actual challenge, or just Carney following the script laid out by Castle and Carper. That takes the risk out for Carney.
It still remains to be seen if Carney’s run is just another example of Delaware Way turn-taking.
Castle is definitely going to run for Senate vs Biden.
No way in hell. He does not want to go out a loser like Roth.
Castle v Biden is easier than Castle v Carney. Carney supporters are salvating for a second chance to get him elected. Beau had trouble against Ferris, imagine the trouble he’ll have against Castle.
Sorry, Chuck. While your scenario looks good on paper, a solidly-D state is not gonna elect an R who would play a key role in obstructing Obama’s agenda.
If this race took place in a vacuum, you’d probably be right. But Castle opposed the stimulus package, fer cryin’ out loud. Delaware is not about to elect someone to enable Mitch McConnell to gum up the works.
‘Bulo does hope it’s not Beau, though. Paging Matt Denn…
Hes not want to go out a loser like Roth.
If he runs, he won’t, Jason.
Who would beat Castle now in a Senate race? Biden? Keep dreaming. And you don’t think the NRC is going to be begging Castle to run? He would be one of their best pick-up opportunities, and they’ll give him big bucks.
Roth was almost dead when Carper beat him, and Carper was a former gov. Biden has his father’s name, but not much else.
If Castle runs, that seat favors the R’s. Sorry.
Do you think Karen Weldin Stewart is up to the challenge 😉
‘Bulo,
Castle has never lost a statewide race, and people have split the ticket for him for years. His “brand” is solid in the mindshare of the DE voter, regardless of the facts.
He could vote against Obama for the next two years and still win against Biden or Denn. Our best hope is that he retires for personal reasons, although I saw him about 3 weeks ago and he looked pretty good.
This election cycle is going to be better than the last. I can’t wait! Where does this leave Mike Protack?
I agree that this is a very good move for Carney, and does recast him as an actor and not a re-actor.
I agree that Castle will most like retire, rather than run against Carney or Beau (or whomever). Castle would really have to campaign to win in 2010, and I don’t think that he has it in him (when is the last time he worked hard in a campaign?), especially as the Dems are putting up their ‘A list’ folks.
If I were Castle, I’d retire at the end of this term. Where’s the upside for any other course?
This man has won countless elections by wide margins, there is no way Beau Biden or John Carney will scare him. He’s going to run for something. I’m hoping Senate so John can have an easier path.
While it is true that Beau didn’t demolish Ferris, he got 52 and a half percent (133k to 120k) so the Republicans missed their best chance to derail Biden II.
Also, Castle has not won a non-Delaware Way election in 20 years. You could say that he serves at the pleasure of Tom Carper.
Where does this leave Mike Protack?
LOL!
I don’t think there is as much truth to the love fest between Carper and Castle as you’d like to say. Castle is going to do what he wants and that’s try to win a seat.
Protack for State Treasurer 2010!!!
Allan Loudell has a post up about this:
I could just as easily see Castle take his chances against John Carney. One argument against the Castle retirement theory: Just like Pennsylvania’s Arlen Specter, surely Castle’s enough of a Republican not to just hand-over his seat to the Dems. So why signal his intentions, KNOWING this would give such a head start to an establishment Dem like John Carney?
Excellent question, but make sure you go read the whole thing.
Castle has not won a non-Delaware Way election in 20 years.
And when did the “Delaware Way” end?
BTW, who had better name recognition, Biden or Ferris?
A1,
My point is that this is the first election in 20 years in which Castle will be running against a big name, well funded, party endorsed, seasoned, campaigner.
If Castle decides to try and keep his seat he will be violating the Delaware Way in the same way Roth did – but not having the good manners to step aside.
If Castle decides to try and keep his seat he will be violating the Delaware Way in the same way Roth did – but not having the good manners to step aside.
Please, take your kids and put them in safe structures. Jason-logic is in effect and is known to spin off dangerous projectiles. Hard Hat area, only.
I deserve that. However (to borrow a term) I’d say it is now even money that Castle quits.
Ok, Jason, point taken on your first graph with the exception of Biden being a seasoned campaigner or Denn being a seasoned campaigner or a big name.
Regardless of whether he runs for the Senate or House, Castle will have the bigger name and he will be the perceived incumbent. And incumbents are hard to beat. Just ask John Kerry.
In regards to Castle having “good manners” you are forgetting that he is a repub. (RSmitty being the exception. 🙂 )
Jason, what are your odds Castle runs for the Senate now?
I don’t know, J. I think there will be some serious vetting of that Senate seat.
BTW, will that 2010 special be for the remaining term (four years), or does it start anew, as a six-year term? Chuck made a comment about locking up for six, so that is why I ask.
Damn right (about the exception), A1. You’re still number one. 😛
I think the special election will only cover the rest of the term, so 4 years. IDK about Castle’s retirement. I just don’t see a Senate race as all that tempting considering Castle’s age and he would be going in as a low seniority member of the minority party. I just don’t see that as that tempting. I think it’s possible that Castle could run for re-election to the House, but he’s got two things to consider: 1) a high name-recognition, highly funded competitor and 2) he’s in the minority party and it’s not likely to switch over in 2010. I’m sure there’s pressure on Castle to run for re-election from the RNC. We’ll see. We need to watch Castle’s fundraising. If he were going to run for Senate wouldn’t he have kicked it up a notch already, especially if he were facing Biden who will already be behind?
1. 2010 Senate election will be for a 4-year run to complete JRBjr’s term.
2. Castle did no fundraising in first quarter. Total contributions from individuals: $2,000. A passive $69K was received from PAC’s. This is not a dataset that presages a forthcoming campaign.
But as of December 31, 2008, he had $862,744 in his war chest. You can run a pretty good campaign in Delaware as an incumbent with that kind of start.
JM-
Still, Castle could tap into a wingnut national fundraising gusher if he goes for the Senate because it would be one of very few possible pick-ups and it would be like sticking a thumb in Biden Sr’s eye.
That said, the probability of Castle running for the Senate is: 1 in 4472. The same odds of dying on a bicycle.
There is a third possibility. Castle can still get a job offer from the administration. I put that at 1 in 7. The same odds as being an American without health insurance.
The Hill’sAaron Blake seems to favor Mike Castle. I mean, how many excuses can you make for that cardboard cut out? How many partisan digs can a “reporter” get in before he is considered a columnist?
Is it me?
Carney works fast. I mentioned Carney on Twitter and now he’s following me (I feel so special). He’s obviously looking for the buzz.