‘Bulo’s Top 10 2010 Republican Targets-# 6

11th Representative District: Greg Lavelle

Bleatings from the Rethuglican flock notwithstanding, Brandywine Hundred remains a target-rich environment for the D’s. Already gone are the 7th RD, formerly held by Wayne Smith; the 10th RD, the previous domain of Bob Valihura, and Jane Maroney before him; and the 4th Senatorial District, by registration the most R Senate District in the state. And the 6th District could well return to the D fold in 2010 after a brief flirtation with the R’s.

The demographics and registration are changing in this once-solid Republican bedrock, and Greg Lavelle’s district should be next.

In fact, had the 11th RD Chair spent even one scintilla of the time on candidate recruitment that he spent going after longtime nemesis Valihura and on trying to elect John Carney, Lavelle could easily have lost in 2008. (The generic D on the ballot in 2006 got over 42% of the vote in the race.) And, if Dennis E. “Just Send the State Check to My Post Office Box” Williams doesn’t start putting in at least a minimal effort, the 10th could flip back to R while the 11th flips to D.

Enough venting. Why does ‘bulo consider the 11th a primo pickup opportunity? First, take a gander at the District map.

Jerry Manders (not the guy who played the Beav) would be proud of this map. By every legal drafting standard, this district map would not meet with court approval. However, for certain odiferous reasons (Hint: A district was drawn especially for the daughter of Bob Gilligan’s consigliere, Lonnie George, that is equally illegal, and looks like a barbell), the D’s never challenged it. At the time of reapportionment, this district had a safe and solid Rethug majority. Like Bob Valihura’s district, the district was also drawn to enable an R living near Chateau Country to represent a district that stretches to Claymont.  That would be Greg Lavelle who, while not in Chateau Country, is within easy walking distance of the DuPont Country Club, but  needs a map to find Claymont. 

Now, children, if you refer to the stitched-together district map, you will understand in part Lavelle’s vulnerability. Only the portion of his district west of the Concord Pike can still be considered solid R country. And, even there, these are the kind of R’s who like Markell. Consider these figures. Obama beat McCain in the 11th, 7062 to 4009. Markell did even better against Bill Lee, 7334-3460. Even local aristocrat Sir Charles Copeland lost to salt-o’-the-earth Matt Denn, 6018-4638. Not even close.

And, the district which at one time had the largest Republican plurality in the state, flipped around April of last year, and the registration figures are now 6195 D’s,  5590 R’s, and 3908 I’s. If you check the Department of Elections updates every month, the trend is only accelerating. There are likely to be at least 1000 more registered D’s than R’s by the 2010 election, maybe 1500. And, unlike the similar-but-different 10th, there aren’t that many apartment dwellers in the 11th (people living in apartments are far less likely to vote).

But, ‘bulo, you and the Jerry Martins of the world are likely saying, Lavelle overwhelmingly won reelection last time, 6731-3895, there’s no chance. To them, the Beast Who Slumbers points out that the D’s ‘name on the ballot’, Chuck Old, did far better than Karen Harpy-Nagle did against Mike Castle, 7335-3297. Like Harpy-Nagle, Chuck was not viewed as a credible candidate. Does anybody believe that John Carney couldn’t compete with and quite possibly win the 11th against Mike Castle? Same holds true for Greg Lavelle.

Meandering, But Important, Aside-Although Chuck Old was far removed from being a natural when it came to running for office, the Democratic Party owes him a huge debt of gratitude. When the district chair turned his nose up at the thought of recruiting, Old ran knowing full well that he could not win, but he still ran hard. He kept Greg Lavelle tied down in his district along with Rethug resources for other races. ‘Bulo believes that, without Chuck’s candidacy, both Bob Valihura and Ray Clapworthy might have won. It’s one thing to go out there when (a) you’ve got a chance and (b) you’re really comfortable doing it. What Chuck Old did took real courage. He has ‘bulo’s deep respect as he indeed was the least-recognized Most Valuable Player of 2008. 

Absent in this analysis has been any discussion of Greg Lavelle himself. His roots in Brandywine Hundred are not deep, as he moved there from Browntown (talk about yer culture shock). He ran unsuccessfully for Wilmington City Council back in the ’90’s before he moved. He was preceded in office in the 11th by Phil Cloutier and, after Phil’s death, by Cathy Cloutier, Phil’s widow. Cathy Cloutier ran for State Senate in 2000, Lavelle won a three-way Republican primary, and has held the office since. While the 2002 reapportionment kept the seat in Republican hands, it made the seat far more competitive as solid R chunks (kind of an icky visual…) were lopped off to shore up both the 7th and 10th RD’s.

The Beast Who Slumbers considers Lavelle one of those guys who would rather have issues to exploit politically than to actually do the hard work of making policy. In that sense, he’s the “Anti-Valihura”. He can be found grandstanding on the Rethugs’ legislative agenda as he is one of the most quotable of R’s. Al Mascitti vouches for him, but ‘bulo thinks that’s likely b/c Greg loves the microphone so Al always has an R on speed-dial. And, while it hasn’t yet dawned on the Rethugs, the American people have figured out that R’s don’t believe in governing, they just believe in winning through divisive tactics. This doesn’t bode well for Lavelle.

The path to victory here is simple: candidate recruitment. Even a cursory scanning of the Democratic voters in this district reveals a wealth of strong potential candidates. Both the party and the House caucus are well aware of this and are well aware of some of the names. Since the district chair didn’t do the job, the Party must.  Recruiting and training a strong candidate will make the 11th a likely flip in 2010. 

El Somnambulo closes with a word of warning to the R’s: He is not yet done with Brandywine Hundred. There is someone even more vulnerable. You will just have to wait to see who else from the northern ‘burbs is on the Endangered Incumbents’ List.