‘Bulo’s Top 10 Targets for 2010-Numero Uno

24th Representative District-Bill Oberle

If the House Republican Caucus of the past 20 years was, as a whole, the Buffalo Springfield (it wasn’t, but bear with ‘bulo), then Bill Oberle was its Neil Young. 

A very skilled operator within Legislative Hall, often called upon by longtime friend Speaker of the House Terry Spence to take on difficult bipartisan assignments, yet one who remained at least once removed from his own Caucus by choice (Memo to music fans: Check out the cover of the Springfield’s “Last Time Around” album, and you’ll see the group members looking one way while Neil is pointedly looking in the opposite direction, which is where he was headed). His 2nd floor office with a concert poster of Otis Redding and Marvin Gaye was geographically and decoratively isolated from everyone else’s. He is/was much more ideologically in tune with moderate to liberal positions, except on the position of race, or, more accurately, ‘forced busing’, which is how he made his political bones in the first place.

To his credit, he never embraced the Gingrich-esque excesses of that movement that were enthusiastically pushed by Tom Sharp and Wayne Smith. To his discredit, he rode the issue into office along with Spence, Sharp, lightweight Jeff Mack, Jim Vaughn, and several others who have since fallen by the wayside.

He grew comfortable with his lone wolf (“Know when you see him/ nothing can free him/step aside/open wide/it’s the loner”-Neil Young) position after an early and mistake-riddled foray into leadership in the 1980’s. He would often joke when a Democratic legislator sought his co-sponsorship to give a bill the Republican imprimatur, “What kind of trouble are you getting me into today?” But he would almost always sign on.

He has generally been all that a progressive Democrat could want in a Republican legislator. Supporter of HB 99, windpower, open government and, since his less-than-heroic start, much more a uniter than divider on the class and racial divides.

“So, ‘bulo,”  you’re asking yourselves, “why have you made Oberle the number one target when it sounds like you’d like to share a room with him?”

This is the Number One Target b/c the Beast Who Slumbers does not believe that Oberle will run again, and does not believe that he can win if he does. And, the district is so overwhelmingly Democratic that any credible D should win. ‘Bulo’s mission here is to make sure that the D is both credible and progressive.

The Beast Who Slumbers doesn’t think that Oberle will run again b/c:

(a) his friends are mostly gone, including moderates like Spence, Lofink, Reynolds, Rich Davis, all replaced by D’s;

(b) for better or worse, the little ‘party switch’ dance between Oberle and the D Caucus never came to fruition, so Oberle is now in what threatens to be permanent minority status;

(c) Oberle came perilously close to losing to someone who was worse than just a name on the ballot (more on that later); and

 (d) the reason why Oberle found himself in a competitive race against a no-name is because he hasn’t really functioned as a Representative in years. This is perhaps the most important point, and Oberle is by no means the only long-term legislator in this position. While most of the assorted movers and shakers in Dover consider him a go-to guy, the people in his blue-collar Newark district (Here’s the district map in pdf) can’t go to him. He enjoys his semi-retirement at the track and at the beach, which is OK if you’re retired, which he is not. To believe that Oberle would run again would be to believe that he is going to subject himself to an arduous door-to-door campaign to which he has not committed in well over a decade. He also has to know that, if he runs again, the perceived conflicts of interest regarding his role with the horseman’s group and his wife’s business relationships (Blue Hen Promotions) with the state will be fair game. If sports betting was already here, ‘bulo’d plunk down mucho dinero on Oberle retiring, although he’d probably only get a dime back on a dollar bet.

Lest anyone doubts that this is a Democratic pickup waiting to happen, let’s check out the numbers, shall we? The 24th is one of the very few districts outside the City of Wilmington with a majority, not just a plurality, of Democratic voters. 6407 D’s, 3031 R’s, 3134 I’s. That’s just brutal. 

In 2008, Bill Oberle ran against “A Kid With Nothing to Do Who Did Nothing During the Campaign” (‘bulo will not mention the candidate’s name, as he did nothing to earn the pub, you couldn’t even get him on his phone, and it’s not clear that he really lives in the district). The Anonymous Kid got 46% of the vote. This is the floor, not the ceiling. A credible candidate wins the district handily. (Special props to Erik Schramm for having the balls to find someone to run, despite strong pressure to leave Oberle alone.)

For once, it appears that the 24th RD is close to having a functional Democratic committee. No more Marti Dennisons working as double agents to ensure that Oberle runs unopposed.

Since this is a once-in-a-decade chance to elect someone who will hold the office for awhile, the key is to find someone who will support a progressive agenda in Dover. You can bet that all of the D’s who built a protective wall around Oberle will now try to impose their will on the process. Tony DeLuca will be sticking his $700 suits into the District’s business. Labor will claim that they have the right to pick the nominee even though they effectively denied the district a choice for 20 years.

The Beast Who Slumbers suspects that there will be a primary, and that it might be bitter. This is not something to run from, it’s something to embrace.  It insures that the nominee has actually earned the votes in the district rather than just being crowned. ‘Bulo believes that you (by you, he means John Tobin) could do an empirical analysis quantifying that the worst legislators come from the districts with the largest party majorities, regardless of party. One way to forestall that is to have a vigorously-contested primary. 

‘Bulo would like to see the progressive community identify and rally around a candidate. It has to be someone who can represent the economic needs of this hard-hit blue-collar community, and it has to be someone who can plausibly win. ‘Bulo’s thinking a slightly more, um, circumspect, John Kowalko, for example. And, any attempts to ease Oberle’s daughter (it had been rumored although the rumor has cooled off lately, and she is a registered D) into the seat must be fought tooth-and-nail, as that almost defines the Delaware Way.

And with that, the Beast Who Slumbers concludes the series. He will resume his more typical ‘hit-and-run’ posting for awhile. He has two extended series in the works: “Not Just More Democrats, Better Democrats”, which would identify races where progressives can and should do better than the incumbents, and “A Guide to the Delaware Way”, presumably self-explanatory. 

For now, ‘bulo’s batteries need recharging. Hope you enjoyed the series. El Somnambulo really enjoyed writing it.