Check it out. MYDD’s Todd Beeton has gone “all in” for Mike Castle based on one poll:
DE-Sen: Delaware Voters Prefer Republicanism To Nepotism
by Todd BeetonA new Susquehanna poll shows that if Republicans can recruit Delaware At-Large Congressman Mike Castle to run for Joe Biden’s former Senate seat, he would destroy the presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe’s son (and Delaware Attorney General) Beau Biden.
Castle 55
Biden 34The big bad news for Biden:
Among Republicans, Castle leads Biden by a margin of 82% to 12% and among Independents he leads Biden 55% to 28%. Biden leads among Democrats only by a 52% – 36% margin, how
ever.
The analysis plays up Castle’s cross-party appeal but it’s hard not to see this as much as a rejection of nepotism as it is a vote of confidence for Castle. Hard to imagine Dems holding this seat if Castle gets in.
Looks like Castle is our next Senator after all.
And that is as reliable as you saying it was a mortal lock that Castle wasn’t going to run.
A lot of balls still in the air.
(And it is Beeton).
I don’t know who this Beeton guy is or why he is calling a race 18 months out on a poll meant to entice Castle in.
Yeah DD,
This was kinda preempted by your (better) post. I still kept it because it shows a little of the outside of Delaware take on the poll.
Jason, what were you gonna do if Castle runs? Parade down Main Street or sump’n?
Beeton is a friend and a blogger from California. He got his start at Calitics, and moved up to MyDD. He is just citing the hypothetical conventional wisdom. If Castle does get in, with these numbers, I would be hard pressed not to say the seat leans Republican.
I believe the bet was that Jason will march naked down Route 13, from Claymont to the Maryland state line.
Strike down nepotism….but not at all costs.
A1,
Yep. I still have hope that Smyrna will spared that.
I’ll chip in on the bail bond.
That seems to be choice here Susan.
The poll indicates:
“Among Republicans, Castle leads Biden by a margin of 82% to 12% and among Independents he leads Biden 55% to 28%. Biden leads among Democrats only by a 52% – 36% margin, however.”
Below is the outcome based on the breakdown of actual voters in the 2006 election by party if the percentages were to hold up from now through Nov 2010:
http://elections.delaware.gov/reports/agprpt_2006.html
Democrats
116,955 (voted 2006)
52%=60817Biden 36%-42,104-Castle
republicans
90,176 (voted 2006)
12%-10,821-Biden 82%-73,944-Castle
others
50,922 (voted 2006)
28%-14,258-Biden 55%-28,007 Castle
The outcome would be
85,896 Biden 144,055 Castle
Here are the actual results from the 2006 US Rep race:
http://elections.delaware.gov/archive/elect06/elect06_general/html/elect06_general_office.shtml
DENNIS SPIVACK 97565
MICHAEL N. CASTLE 143897
Do you really think Castle would beat Biden by a larger margin than Spivack?
Biden has won statewide, has 3 decades of name recognition and will have more money on hand than Spivack did.
Whether the poll is accurate currently, I think by election day it will be much closer than this and possibly Biden could win.
CONGRESS – 2008 RACE
DEMOCRATIC PARTY
KAREN HARTLEY-NAGLE 146,434
REPUBLICAN PARTY
MICHAEL N. CASTLE 235,437
In 2008, Karen Hartley-Nagle received 48,869 more votes than Dennis Spivak did in 2006. Is that not the bar to beat – if we’re talking about number of votes?
Surely a ticket with both Carney and Biden would produce a strong turnout with number of voters similar to the 2008 election. Especially with the economy and jobs, affecting everyone, as a backdrop for the 2010 election.
Biden will surpass Castle’s numbers in the last month with a significant amount of national money poured into TV and radio.