Today’s Economic News Better Than Expected
I never thought I’d see the day when 9.4% unemployment (U3) was considered good news.
Employers throttled back on layoffs in July, cutting just 247,000 jobs, the fewest in a year, and the unemployment rate dipped to 9.4 percent, its first decline in 15 months.
It was a better-than-expected showing that offered a strong signal that the recession is finally ending.
The new snapshot, released by the Labor Department on Friday, also offered other encouraging news: workers’ hours nudged up after sinking to a record low in June, and paychecks grew after having fallen or flat lined in some cases.
Some of the previous months’ numbers were also revised down. The U6 number (unemployed + involuntarily part-time) also dropped from 16.5% to 16.3%. The drop in the unemployment numbers was unexpected because unemployment general lags in a recovery. We’ll have to wait and see if this recovery is sustained.
Bottom line: The economy is still in the dumps but there are some encouraging signs of a turn-around. This recovery will no doubt be slow because of the huge overhang from the housing bubble.
Tags: The Economy
Speaking from lifelong experience, it is always hard to get a job in the summer even in good times. So if unemployment is dropping in July, there must be a very strong underlying employment trend that will burst out in late September or so.
And if you consider that unemployment is a lagging indicator, we may we pretty far along. I’m still cautious, but feeling a little better. Plus it has the added bonus of annoying Protack.
It will also freak out corporations, who actually like high unemployment because it lowers labor costs. Especially those corporations that have locked-in customers who can’t stop paying even in a recession.
The unemployment rate isn’t low enough to scare corps yet. Get near 5% and they’ll start to worry about labor costs.
True, but watch oil price go up tomorrow on the jobs numbers.
I also have a theory that there are a lot of deferred retirements right now. As soon as stocks go up and stabilize, and there is pressure from younger employees who want to move up, there will be a wave of retirements that will make employment surge.
I am not annoyed but the millions who are unemployed and who Obama does not care about are pronbably very annoyed. Anyway, the stimulus bill kept umemployment below 8% right?
Plus, as always you fail to tell the whole story. The unemployment rate is based on number unemployed/total work force. In a recession anyone with more than a third grade knowledge of economics knows that many workers leave the work force so the unemployment rate is moderated.
Also, the left wing extremists on this site have blamed unemployment on two wars and tax cuts, now it is the housing bubble?
Either way Obama’s FUBAR economy is hurting minorities at three to four times the rate of whites. How is that hope and change doing for you?
The only retirement which will help the economy is Obama’s.
Mike Protack
Funny, Mikey, but here in Virginia it was the Republicans who rejected $125 million in extended unemployment benefits because it would “hurt” businesses. Yes, it would have raised the cost of unemployment insurance by a whole $2 per worker. Oh no, that poor small business that wouldn’t have been able to buy a new stapler because of big government intruding on them!
As the economy improves – and it is improving because of Obamas economic policies – people like Protack are going to be left with only one argument: debt. Like they ever cared about debt during Reagan, Bush 1 or Bush lite. But now someone else is spending money, only they are spending it differently. The republicans love spending our money on war and tax cuts for the super rich. That piles up debt, concentrates income, and leaves very little for the average Joe. The dems spend it on us.
I’ll repeat myself. The stock market just had its best July in 20 years. Home sales have shown an increase five straight months due to Obama’s $8,000 rebate check for new homebuyers. Auto sales up 16% in July because of Obama’s Cash for Clunkers program. The stimuls package – a combo of tax CUTS for 95% of Americans, $200 billion mailed directly to the states and some federal spending (some good, some not so good) has made a difference. To suggest otherwise is ignorance. In fact, the dems saved a few republican states that were in desperate need of funds to avoid massive layoffs in eduaction and health care. Unemployment has eased. The worst is over. Consumer spending is up.
Lets see. We haven’t been attacked. Three pirates are dead. Hey Mikey, heard from any pirates lately. LOL. Diplomacy led to the release of two American hostages in NK. Sonia is heading to the high court.
One can try to distort the facts. But I’ll take Obama’s record over the prior Administration any day and I’ll take the dems approach to governing over any republican. Cause there ain’t nothing moral about war and economic policy that favors a select few.
Anyway, the stimulus bill kept umemployment below 8% right?
Dope Protack – Go rummage around for some new talking points, those are stale.
The stimulus job creation numbers were pretty accurate, but based on data that has since been revised. The Bush recession was way worse than we thought at first. The reasons for the current unemployment rate all predate Obama.
The recession is due to a lot of bad decisions by the previous administration and bad decisions from ones previous to Bush as well. It’s basically 30 years of Republican “something for nothing” ideology, trickle-down economics. Bush’s decisions: going to war without raising taxes, further deregulation, ignoring the problems and policies that encouraged the housing bubble are to blame.
Wow, it’s like someone spilled something and made a huge mess, smears it around instead of fixing it, runs away, and comes back a little later to bitch that the next person didn’t clean it up fast enough. Piss off. Your candidate lost, your party was and is wrong, and hopefully more and more Americans will realize this as Obama contines to play clean up.