Biden Favored to Hold Senate Seat for Dems
Yes, you read that right.
The conventional wisdom is that Castle’s entrance into the Senate race not only makes this race competitive, but also makes Castle the likely winner of the race no matter who he faces. However, Public Policy Polling says that if Beau Biden runs, Democrats still favored to keep the seat.
When we polled the state in March Castle was leading Biden 44-36. But not surprisingly his name recognition was also ten points higher. Among respondents who had an opinion of Biden, whether it was positive or negative, the Democrat led 43-41. And the undecideds in such a scenario were 64% Democratic to 12% Republican, as well as 35% African American.
So Castle’s early poll leads are largely a function of name recognition, and given his nearly 30 years in statewide office really aren’t that substantial.
By this time next year everyone in Delaware’s going to know who Beau Biden is. Democrats who have a positive opinion of both Castle and Biden and are torn about who to vote for are more likely to be influenced by Joe Biden as a candidate surrogate than anyone Republicans could possibly send to the state. And if it’s necessary Barack Obama will come in to reach out to those blacks who were only giving Biden 52% of the vote on our poll earlier this year (and folks don’t realize that Delaware has one of the highest black populations in the country.)
Although it’s not a perfect comparison, when Delaware voters had the choice between a popular old politician and a popular young politician in 2000 they chose Tom Carper over incumbent Bill Roth by a 56-44 margin in an election cycle that you would have to describe as pretty much a wash nationally.
Interesting. Jason Scott thinks that Beau Biden will not make the race. So that probably means he will. Just kidding, Jason. Seriously, I think Beau Biden will run if only to fulfill his role in the family mythology. His father won his Senate race by beating a long time incumbent, and while this is an open seat, that is what Mike Castle is, a 28 year statewide incumbent.
Tags: DE-Sen
I deserve that. I’m the reverse barometer – therefor I predict that Mike Castle will defeat Christine O’Whackjob in the Republican primary.
LOL, Jason. I made as many predictions that Castle would not run.
nothing like a race of voting for the person you dislike the least.
To be honest, I’m ok with voting for Castle. At least he doesn’t ahve a son to hand his fucking crown.
What a god damned joke.
I predict that the MSM will declare the Delaware contest a referendum on the success of the Obama presidency, in three…two….one….
Actually, PM, that would work in Obama’s favor. Indeed, there is no way Castle can base his campaign on opposition to Obama. He will have to go the “send me to Washington to work with the President” route. The best thing Castle can do is run against his own party.
Disagree DV. If Biden wins against Castle, there is no way you or anyone can say he is being handed anything. Yes, his last name gets him money and name recognition that other candidates lack, but he will have to earn our votes and trust the hard way. Meanwhile, just because Beau has Joe Biden for a father is no reason on Earth to vote for a man who voted with Bush 90% of the time.
Drinking again, eh, DV? How else do you explain “Iām ok with voting for Castle.”
The thing about a Biden vs Castle race is that both have the benefit of the goodies that come with dynasties. Castle’s dynasty is one he made — but one that has that shaky moderate business that needs to be taken down. But he’ll get alot of money and attention. Biden’s is a family dynasty in a place where the Bidens seem to be well thought of and in a place where your family background still counts for something — since people know each other. Biden is going to have a tough go on experience but he will get alot of money and attention.
In his speech today Castle went on about people in Washington not working together. No apparent irony in the fact that he has been in Washington a long time and hasn’t had much impact on this working together business. There is some smart polling to be done on this “moderate” business too.
BTW — did anybody notice that Castle never mentioned O’Donnell? Or did I miss that?
No, you didn’t. And he will not engage her. And David Anderson and all conservative Republicans should never forgive him for that. š
Cass – I don’t think he did mention her in the announcement, but I wouldn’t expect him to. He did speak about her with Loudell, but after Loudell brought her up. It wasn’t anything tense, though. It was polite, if not matter-of-fact.
only he would be handed a few million by the VP of the United States sitting at $1000 a plate dinners for Mr. Fail the Bar exam
Actually, I am Mr. Fail the Bar Exam. Beau Biden passed it. Eventually.
DV, it isn’t as though Castle is self-funding, you know. Or perhaps you did not notice how hard the NRSC has been courting Castle. There will be plenty of $1000/plate dinners for Castle too with the appropriate wingnut fundraisers.
SO — can we look forward to an O’Donnell-Castle debate? That would be worthy entertainment.