Snowball’s Chance In Hell

John Tobin has some analysis regarding whether Christine O’Donnell has the possible votes to beat Mike Castle in the 2010 US Senate Republican Primary. In the post at Politics By The Numbers, Tobin looks at the results of the 2006 US Senate Republican Primary between O’Donnell, Mike Protack and Jan Ting. Even though O’Donnell got smacked around in this primary, garnering less than half the votes Protack received, her supporters still think she has a chance to win a state-wide race — any state-wide race. My reading of Tobin’s post is that it would take nothing short of a miracle for O’Donnell to beat Castle.

Does O’Donnell have a chance? What would the Perfect Storm look like that would enable O’Donnell to win? Would it take nothing short of Republican fratricide for Castle to lose? Even if the end of the world came and O’Donnell wins, how badly would she loose to anyone the Democrats put up against her?