Biden Leads Castle In A Just-Released Poll
Whoa, big news! All-but-announced Senate candidate Beau Biden leads Mike Castle in a new poll by 5%. This is bad news for Mike Castle:
In a hypothetical match-up of the candidates, Democrat Beau Biden leads GOP challenger and Delaware Congressman Mike Castle by a margin of 45 to 40 percent; 8% are undecided and 6% say would vote for another candidate. This 5-point lead for Biden, which is statistically significant because it is outside the poll’s 3.36% margin of error, marks the first time in publicly-released surveys that Biden has held the lead. It also represents a significant shift in support for Biden compared to our April survey which showed Castle with a 21-point lead, mainly due to Biden’s increased support with critical independent voters which make up nearly 1 in 4 voters in Delaware. A second explanation for the shift away from Castle in the current poll may be a result of negative publicity he received in the state after casting a “no” vote for President Obama’s health care reform bill in the U.S. Congress. The current poll was conducted 11/10 – 11/15, the week immediately following the weekend when the U.S. House of Representatives voted on this landmark legislation.
As we expected, Democrats are coming home. Castle had some bad publicity with his health care reform vote.
Tags: Beau Biden, DE-Sen, Mike Castle
They’re gonna be mad when they find out it is Beau Biden not Joe Biden. I can hear ’em now: “Whaddaya mean, Joe’s not our Senator anymore? I still see him on TeeVee!”
I doubt those voters will ever notice.
This means if Castle stays in he has to go negative. And Castle can’t go negative without blowing his persona, so it has to be done by third parties so Castle has plausible deniability a la Swiftboat.
All Beau has to do is keep smiling and he wins.
For giggles, I wonder what it what the spread would be against O’Donnell?
Ya know, Castle could just switch parties and fight Beau in the Dem primary. It would give him an extra 2 months off of campaigning when he is sent packing in September.
I think the spread would be wider.
And thus are exposed the frailty of those who rely on being Tall and Ugly to prevail. Hey Mikey, yer lookin’ a little sick…
Talking to the pollster this afternoon, some interesting points:
1. In the current climate, Susquehanna Polling’s president couldn’t think of another race in the country where the Dem has come up so quickly on the GOP’er.
2. Conversely, when you limit the polling to die-hard voters – the folks who show up for each and every election – the contest is tied. Much of Beau Biden’s additional support comes from infrequent voters, the people who didn’t bother to show up in New Jersey and Virginia’s recent gubernatorial contests, for example.
3. The pollster didn’t offer Christine O’Donnell’s name as an alternative to either Beau Biden OR Mike Castle.
Allan Loudell
WDEL Radio & http://www.wdel.com
So…the poll shows likely voters tied between a multi-term state-wide office holder who has announced, and that legacy-child who has been getting a suntan in the middle East, sitting behind a desk, probably helping terrorists for the last year, and isn’t a candidate?
This could be interesting!
/snark off
Let’s make the Senate race a referendum on President Obama!
I have a hard time believing that Mike Castle inspires the Republican base.
He doesn’t, or else David Anderson would not be supporting Christine O’Donnell. Given the Hoffman/DeVore/Rubio mania among die hard conservatives, I wonder if Christine O’Donnell will get any traction.
Allan,
You should interview O’Donnell. All signs point to the fact that she has folded her tent already.
Progressive mom, I take offense to the comment that Beau was aiding terrorist. He left his wife and kids for a year to help defend YOUR freedom! You should be ashamed of that comment.
Progressive mom, I take offense to the comment that Beau was aiding terrorist. He left his wife and kids for a year to help defend YOUR freedom! You should be ashamed of that comment.
anon.,
I’m pretty sure PM was being sarcastic.
Jason may be right about O’Donnell folding up her tent.
I did a post over the weekend about the campaign finances in the GOP race for this seat and she has not filed a quarterly report since the 3-31-2009 report–as far as what is available on the FEC website.
http://politicsbythenumbersmostlydelaware.blogspot.com/2009/11/campaign-finance-comparison-in-gop.html
I agree – I don’t think O’Donnell is in anymore. She hasn’t updated her website, she hasn’t appeared in public and she hasn’t tried to tap into the Hoffmann-teabagger mania. She’s out. I just wonder if another teabagger won’t jump in.
John,
Did you look very hard? Try http://www.christineodonnell2010.com. (Google is your friend!)
And UI, from her website: “Christine will speak at the Delaware Patriots Meeting at the Bowers Beach Fire Hall in Bowers Beach DE this Wednesday, November 18 at 7pm; and at the Milton Fire Hall in Milton, DE at 7pm on Thursday, November 19th.”
And no, I’m not a COD fan, just a believer in due diligence before spouting off.
anon,
That site is filled with 2008 info. (For example Mike Castle might question the fact that she has been endorsed in this race by Hon. (sic) Gov. Pierre S. DuPont). Ms. O’D either thinks that she is running to prevent Ted Kaufman from becoming a Senator – or she is not really running for anything. Also, there was that campaign event in Dover that was so thinly attended that it was scrubbed at the last minute.
I’m all for due diligence and google and I can’t find any evidence that she is really mounting a campaign.
The people of Delaware re-elected Joe Biden 6 times into their Senate. He must have been doing something that they approved of. I support Beau Biden for Senate because he will be a continuation of his fathers work. Beau has the same good morals and values that all of the Bidens have. They are in politics to serve the people, not themselves,their good record proves it.
anon,
I stand corrected. I used Yahoo and not Google. You are correct that she has a campaign website and I think Jason is right that the bulk of what is on it is 2008 stuff.
John,
Oh man, that debt O’Donnell looks like a killer. I agree with your observation that her growing reputation for slow pay/no pay could hamper her campaign … if she had one.
It looks like the tea baggers will have to fall in line and support Castle after all. That’s what Republicans do. Follow orders, obey authority, it is like breathing to them.
O’Donnell was a bit ago on the downstate infomercial-radio-station-disguised-as-talkradio-station and said she was running and looking for campaign donations and she did state that her website was very out-of-date but that this would change soon. Who knows – she’s always good for a laugh or two and a few finger pointing during the campaign season – some people are just fun to have around, if only for the entertainment factor.
“I support Beau Biden for Senate because he will be a continuation of his fathers work. Beau has the same good morals and values that all of the Bidens have. They are in politics to serve the people, not themselves,their good record proves it.”
Hey, if I want to puke, I have syrup of ipecac. This is the sort of mindless horseshit the Bidens have fostered. One more post like this and I’m back to voting for Castle.
I’ve tried to reach Ms. O’Donnell at the telephone numbers we have for her. No response. Don’t know if that’s because the contact info is out-of-date, or if she’s avoiding us (or me).
Allan Loudell
WDEL Radio
Anon-
From the Urban Dictionary
“snark
noun
Combination of “snide” and “remark”. Sarcastic comment(s).
Also snarky (adj.) and snarkily (adv.)”
Re-read my comment. Slowly. Then go to The Fix, CNN’s political ticker, or any recent article on line regarding B. Biden. Then read the comments. Some conservatives are saying much, much worse — and they are saying it without the snark.
Send your condemnation to them.
Thank you for following up on this, Allan. To me, it sounds like the evidence points to O’Donnell not running. I think she would have sent out a press release about Castle’s poor showing if she were serious.
This is excellent news . . . for John McCain!
You libs make me laugh. For eight years you criticized Dubya, rightfully so IMO, for being born with a silver spoon in his mouth. Now Joe Jr. is running based on nothing but pedigree and you’re silent. A US Senate seat isn’t some hereditary fiefdom. Shame.
JFK also was born with the silver spoon. His family sought to help the average American rather than the Bush family’s determined effort to screw the average citizen out of every dollar they could!
it wasnt the silver spoon RustyTrombone, it was HIS conservative agenda up our asses that bothered us. joe biden was born with nothing and his record reflects that he has never forgotten that. Also Beau Biden doesnt have a life long grudge against his father the way W did, AND he isn’t a moronic failure who is constantly bailed out of trouble. If i can expect 30 more years of progressive and honorable senate representation thats fine.