So Beau Biden has taken the lead in his hypothetical matchup against false moderate Mike Castle (R-DE). It is what we all expected to happen much later in this race once the campaign began in earnest (i.e. once Beau announces that he is indeed running) and once Castle’s well guarded lap dog conservative voting record is revealed to the public. Now, the pollster responsible for yesterdays poll opines that perhaps Castle’s “no” vote on healthcare reform is the catalyst for Castle’s unprecedented 26 point collapse. Well, unless the pollster asked that questions I am not sure we have a basis to attribute the collapse to a specific reason, but it is as logical an explanation as any.
As we have always argued, Democrats have come home to Biden, the first legitimate challenger that Mike Castle has ever had in his 16 year congressional career. Castle’s string of election victories in this now heavily Democratic state has always been dependent on significant support from Democrats, for just winning Republicans in Delaware nets you only 30% of the vote. Thus, if a significant chunk of Democrats and Independents do not support him, Castle will never again win another election in this state in life. This poll makes clear that Biden is bringing the Castle Democrats home, and perhaps it is due to Castle’s votes against the stimulus package, for the Stupak amendment, and against healthcare reform.
And this poll is not an outlier, as the second most recent poll of the race pegged it as a statistical tie in the low forties. It would be one thing for Castle to have a 21 point lead two weeks ago and now be down by 5, for it would be easy to dismiss the new poll as an freakishly wrong outlier. But we have a trend here. The more people realize Castle has never been on their side throughout his looong career, the more they are unwilling to vote for him, shockingly enough.
Now, this places Castle in a big multi faceted conundrum. To win this race now, it is all the more probable that he will have to go negative on Beau Biden. But we Delawareans do not like nasty campaigns, and we punish the candidates who do engage in such races, as we did in 1996 against Janet Rzewnicki when she threw mud at Tom Carper. “The Delaware Way” is more than an incumbent protection racket, it is a way of doing business in this state. It is why lawyers always have to wear white shirts in court in Delaware. And it is why we conduct our elections civilly (at least at the candidate level). Thus, Castle cannot be seen to be going negative on Beau.
Now, that is easy enough. He can invite third party groups in to do the dirty work for him, like Club for Growth et al. But these third party conservative groups will only campaign for him if he is worthy of that support, due to the recent purging of party moderates in the NY-23 election (Hoffman) and what will happen shortly in the California and Florida primaries (DeVore and Rubio). Thus, Castle must continue to toe the party line in voting with the extreme conservative wing of his party and against the entirety of President Obama’s agenda. It will mean flip flopping on cap and trade (and he has already indicated he is now against his prior vote for cap and trade).
Castle has spent years, no, decades fashioning a false brand for himself: that of a independent moderate that works only for Delaware. And that branding has won him election after election in Delaware.
But Delaware Dem, you ask, why do you say it is a false brand?
Because now, when Castle needs to act independently the most, he is doing it the least. It is not good politics for blue state Republicans to vote like party hacks on key votes like healthcare reform and the stimulus package. And that is what Castle has done.
Does he really fear the whacko conservatives in this state? Does he fear Christine O’Donnell that much to destroy his brand? I doubt it. But he is acting like he HAS to vote right to win a contested primary.
And, as we have already seen, it will cost him in the general.
To win this election, Castle must now go negative, and he cannot if he wants to win the election. To win this election, Castle must be the moderate he has professed himself to be, and, for some reason, after all these years, he is acting like the conservative he is.