Tag Archives: Obama

Romney Just Lost Virginia

I was just over at Electoral-vote.com (a great site that I don’t visit enough) and saw that Virgil Goode, Presidential candidate for the Constitution Party and long-time Virginia Congressman, has made the ballot in Virginia. As a Virginia local running to the right of Romney, this should be the death-knell of the Romney campaign.  At the end of August, Goode was polling at about 4% and I doubt any of those votes are Obama voters.

This should give Obama a comfortable lead in Virginia, if it holds.  And if Obama holds Virginia, I’m not sure that the Romney math is even possible.  Further, if the narrative shifts away from “this is a close race” to “How much will Obama win by” we could be looking at more exposure for down-ticket races and a better chance at retaking the House.

What can I say, I’m an optimist.

Spending, Taxes, Deficit: Lower Now Than Inauguration Day

The facts, as laid out by Think Progress:

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In January 2009, before President Obama had even taken the oath of office, annual spending was set to total 24.9 percent of gross domestic product. Total spending this year, fiscal year 2012, is expected to top out at 23.4 percent of GDP.
Here’s another interesting fact. Taxes today are lower than they were on inauguration day 2009. Back in January 2009, the CBO projected that total federal tax revenue that year would amount to 16.5 percent of GDP. This year? 15.8 percent.
One last nugget. The deficit this year is going to be lower than what it was on the day President Obama took office. Back then, the CBO said the 2009 deficit would be 8.3 percent of GDP. This year’s deficit is expected to come in at 7.6 percent.

Reality, as we all know, has a liberal bias.

An Interesting Poll

Steve Benen breaks it down, but here is what stands out to me:

Elsewhere in the poll, Americans said they are concerned about the deficit, but when asked about nine different ideas for deficit reduction, the public opposed all nine. Try not to be surprised.  [emphasis mine]

Seriously, we’re all talk.

About that GOP mandate…

Republicans may have made major gains in the November elections, but they have yet to win the hearts and minds of the American people, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

The midterm elections — in which Republicans gained 63 seats to take control of the House and added six seats to their Senate minority — were widely seen as a rebuke to President Obama. Still, the public trusts Obama marginally more than they do congressional Republicans to deal with the country’s main problems in the coming years, 43 percent to 38 percent.

The poll suggests that the election, while perhaps a vote against the status quo, was not a broad mandate for Republicans and their plans. The survey also underscores the degree to which Americans are conflicted about who they think is setting the agenda in Washington.

Finally, you can make of this what you will:

As for heightened progressive criticism of the White House, polls like these continue to defy expectations. The president’s approval rating among liberals remains steady at 87%, and only 11% of the country thinks Obama is negotiating too much with Republicans.

Interesting stuff.

Tone Deaf

I’m really not certain if writing this post is worth it.  I’m also not certain I want to go down this road again.  Truth is… I’m weary.  Even sadder, I’m tuning out.

First, this isn’t a post about policy – it’s about tone.

On that note, I have a few questions for certain Progressives/Liberals/Democrats:

What is your end goal?  How does calling the President a liar, a corporate shill, a weakling, etc. advance your agenda?

For those calling to primary Obama… Realistically, how do you see this working?  If  your explanation concludes with a President Kucinich or Nader, try again.

What is most frustrating is that I see very little difference between the calls on the left to primary Obama and the calls on the right to impeach him.  And that is where tone comes into play.  I’d suggest toning down the personal attacks, but I’m certain that some would claim that makes me anti free-speech.

It Was Only A Matter Of Time

There was no avoiding this.

In fact, impeachment talk moved yesterday from Tea Party rallies to at least one Republican Member of the House, Darrell Issa. And Issa’s not an obscure backbencher; he’s the ranking Republican on Oversight and Government Reform, and he also sits on the Judiciary Committee.

The incentives all run to impeachment, as far as I can tell. The leaders of such an effort would find it easy to cash in (literally, I mean) with books and appearances on the conservative lecture circuit. It’s hard to believe that Rush, Beck and the rest of the gang wouldn’t be tripping over each other to wear the crown of the Host Who Brought Down the socialist gangster president. And we’ve seen the ability, or I should say the lack thereof, of rank-and-file GOP pols to stand up to the talk show yakkers. Besides, it’s not as if a new Republican majority would have a full agenda of legislative items to pass, and what they did have would face an Obama veto (and most likely death in the Senate at any rate). Against all that is the collective preference of the Republican Party not to have a reputation as a pack of loons, but that doesn’t seem to be much of a constraint in practice. Of course, also against impeachment is the lack of a serious offense by the president, but I don’t see that as a major impediment — if offering a job to a potential Senate candidate is an impeachable offense (and see Jonathan Chait if you think it really is), then they’ll have no trouble at all coming up with something.

Do you know when Republicans decided to impeach Obama?  November 4, 2008.

(Oh, they would be pulling this crap on Hillary, as well.  Actually, I think they would have pulled it sooner.  Also, I added a new “impeachment” tag.  I have a feeling we’ll be using it… a lot.)

“It’s Worth Thinking About”

At yesterday’s Q&A with Democrats Obama delivered a line that should have every Democrat sitting up and taking notice.  If you watch the video below one thing stands out – Obama is not laughing.

“There was apparently a headline after the Massachusetts election. The Village Voice announced that Republicans win a 41-59 majority. It’s worth thinking about.”

It is worth thinking about.

That Village Voice headline reinforced a perception – a perception Democrats have done very little to counter.  I think the political diversity among Democrats is great.  I think the robotic spewing of talking points from Republicans is terrible, but there really isn’t much we can do about that.  And while I keep searching for an independent voice among the GOP (not happening, I know) I’m also looking for some cohesive message from the Dems.  There should be strength in numbers.  That should be a natural advantage, and one, imo, that’s being squandered.

That doesn’t mean embracing Lieberman, Nelson, Lincoln, Bayh, etc.  They are on their own, as far as I’m concerned, and if they lose their seats I won’t shed a tear.  What it means is that we have to stop taking to our beds every time they say something stupid.  Frankly, we are giving them way too much attention, and, in case we haven’t figured it out, attention equals power and endless guest appearances on Hardball and Meet The Press- where they simply get another platform for their positions.  And every time these people get access to a microphone the real message is lost to whatever pet issue or slight they want to focus.  In essence, they are taking up valuable air time with their whining and faux display of being “reasonable.”  And every time they go on TV, they are also taking away time from Dems with something of value to say.

They are helping create the perception the Village Voice put forth.  Republicans will be Republicans no matter what.  It would be nice if Democrats could be Democrats on key issues.

It’s worth thinking about.

I Feel Like I’ve Been Here Before

If you haven’t read Kevin Drum’s article, please do.  He puts into words exactly how I feel.

The striking thing to me, though, is how fast the left has turned on him. Conservatives gave Bush five or six years before they really turned on him, and even then they revolted more against the Republican establishment than against Bush himself. But the left? It took about ten months. And the depth of the revolt against Obama has been striking too. As near as I can tell, there’s a small but significant minority who are so enraged that they’d be perfectly happy to see his presidency destroyed as a kind of warning to future Democrats. It’s extraordinarily self-destructive behavior — and typically liberal, unfortunately. Just ask LBJ, Jimmy Carter, and Bill Clinton. And then ask them whether liberal revolt, in the end, strengthened liberalism or conservatism.

The speed the left has turned on him is striking.  And it’s something that has puzzled me.  I remember questioning the speed of the Tea Party rally one month after Obama was sworn in.  I remember thinking that their timing had far more to do with who was in the White House than anything else.  And I’m beginning to feel the same way about the left.

I say this because a lot of what I’m hearing, and reading, is disturbingly familiar.  I’ve heard it all before, specifically during the 2008 Democratic Presidential Primary.  The disparaging twists on Obama’s name, the predictable name calling of anyone who supports him, and the never-ending references to Kool-Aid.

It’s almost as if we came together in November 2008 under false pretenses.  It’s as if some on the left were ready and waiting for him to fail, and even eager to pounce on every failure and set back as some sort of proof.  Proof of what, I’m not sure.  What I am sure about is that the level of Obama outrage is over the top given his time in office.  I also don’t believe that this extreme approach (Obama’s a liar, he’s as bad, or worse than Bush, etc.)  moves the Overton Window as much as it makes swing voters swing in the opposite direction.  Bernard Avishai says it best:  “Hell, if his own people think he’s a sell-out and jerk, why should we support this?”

And that’s because there is simply no balance in the left’s criticism.  Obama sucks, he’s a sell-out, he’s a liar is all you read and hear from one side.  There’s never any attempt to say something like, “I hate the HCR bill, but I’m pleased with the way he’s toned down the rhetoric on terrorism, the Lily Ledbetter Act, etc. They simply can’t stand him, and I sense they’ve always felt this way – that their views aren’t driven by disappointment, as much as they are driven by the anticipation of being able to say I told you so.

And while there will be plenty of blame to go around if Coakley loses today, some of that blame will rest on the far left – a fact I’m not sure will bother them, since they seem to be okay with scalp collecting to make their point.  My problem?  I still have no idea what their point is.  Perhaps they want to kill this bill Presidency and start from scratch?

2010: The Year They Go Even More Insane?

You gotta love the Republicans. And by Republicans, I am talking about their idiotic birther teabagger deather base, and not necessarily elected Republican officials (although certain elected officials like Palin and Bachmann certainly fit the former and the latter). They all, to the last man and woman, think they are going to win back Congress and then impeach President Obama and repeal health insurance reform this year. Just like Sarah Palin was going to save real Merikuns from socialism and defeat that un-American terrorist named Barack Hussein Obama. When that didn’t happen, and indeed, when Obama won the election in a relative landslide, these knuckle draggers went batshit crazy. Let’s review the past year.

First, they claimed that the President has not shown us his birth certificate, even though he and the Hawaiian government have; that he was born in Kenya instead of Hawaii based on some obviously (or obvious to anyone who can read English and has a fourth grade education) forged documents; and that even if he was born in Hawaii, Hawaii is not a state but rather some weird alien foreign world that you have to take a space shuttle to. Next, a number of whack job conservatives and racists started making death threats against the President, and some even started killing people (three police officers in Pittsburgh, an abortion doctor in Kansas, and a security guard at the Holocaust museum). Then, the Republican base got all revolutionary on our asses because they were all outraged! They said they outraged!!!!!! because the government was preventing us from going into a massive Depression that would rival the Great Depression in severity by passing the Stimulus bill, I guess because these Republicans enjoy economic depressions, since they always cause them (personally I think Republicans were outraged because a black man and/or a Democrat was President, but whatever). So they all proclaimed that they were holding tea bag parties across the land. The porn industry and BDSM enthusiasts got all excited. And during the health insurance reform debate, they got all hot and bothered by a lie from their leader about this supposed imaginary government death panels that would kill grandma, even though the insurance company death panel killed grandpa last year. As the year progressed, Republicans continued to ramp up their revolutionary rhetoric as if King George III himself had reanimated and taken over the Presidency and was taxing the Republicans without their being represented (even though the Republicans are represented in Washington and the largest middle class tax CUT was just passed).

The Republican ability to believe their lies and hyperbole and vitriol is unmatched. They created a lie and then go crazy over it. Literally. Such an ability points to a collective mental disorder, such as paranoid delusion. And now they believe they are going to win in 2010.

But the reality is they will not win in 2010, just like reality has belied all of their other histrionics over the past year. And the question is…. if the above is how they reacted over losing the White House in 2008 to a black man and/or a Democrat….. dear God, how will they react in 2011 when they fail to win the House and Senate?

The Republicans’ chances at winning back Congress are slim to none. In the House, the GOP now needs 40 seats to win a majority. In 1994, the GOP needed to win 42 seats to get back the majority, and it took a perfect storm of massive amounts of retirements of Democrats in the House and Senate, a dispirited Democratic base discouraged over the failure of Clinton’s healthcare reform proposal, and an energized GOP base, a proactive and unified GOP campaign (i.e. the Contract with America) that gave voters a reason to vote FOR the opposition party, and a lack of awareness by the Democrats that the perfect storm was even coming (as admitted by former President Clinton and a number of Democratic strategists).

Now, I will grant you that the Republican base is electrified by their own paranoia. But the Democratic base is not as dispirited as it was back then, even if we are not as happy as we were in 2008. And that is because we do know the stakes this time, which leads to the lack of another ingredient of the 1994 perfect storm: awareness. Democratic candidates, officeholders and voters are aware that they must bring the fight this time. Finally, another missing ingredient is the lack of Democratic retirements. In fact, more Republicans are retiring so far than Democrats, despite the recent news that “Democrats are dropping like flies.”

In the House, 10 Democrats are retiring, with DCCC Chair Chris Van Hollen saying he expects only a few more. That is well short of the 28 that retired in 1994 compared to the 14 Republicans that retired that year. That two to one advantage helped the GOP onto victory in 1994. But in 2010, odds are that the same number of Republicans and Democrats will be retiring, if not more Republicans.

And let’s look at the Democrats that are retiring. Kendrick Meek of Florida’s 17th CD is retiring to run for Senate, but his district is a safe Democratic seat. Neil Abercrombie of Hawaii’s 1st CD is retiring to run for Governor, but his seat is a safe Democratic seat. Artur Davis of Alabama’s 7th CD is also retiring to run for Governor, and his seat is a safe Democratic seat as well (and yes, there are safe Democratic seats in Alabama, especially when all African Americans in the state have been somehow gerrymandered into one district). So out of the retiring 10, 3 are guaranteed Democratic holds. Another 4 are likely Republican pickups, which are two seats in Tennessee (the 6th and the 8th), one in Kansas (the 3rd) and one in Louisiana (the 3rd). The remaining 3 are all pure tossups: the Pennsylvania 7th (Sestak’s Delco seat), the New Hampshire 2nd and the Washington 3rd. So let’s be generous and say that the GOP will pick up 7 of the 10 Democratic open seats. They will still need 33 more pickups to take back the House. And that is not counting their own open seats they will lose.

They will lose Castle’s seat here in Delaware to the Democrats. Hello Congressman Carney. They will lose the Illinois 10th (where Mark Kirk is leaving to run for the Senate as well). The Pennsylvania 6th (where Gerlach is leaving to run for Governor) is rated as leaning Democratic now, but a competitive race to be sure. And let’s not forget the Louisiana 2nd, where Joseph Cao was elected over that criminal who hide money in the freezer. Yeah, it is the most Democratic seat in Louisiana and Cao will be losing it no matter his vote for healthcare reform in the House. So there you have 3-4 Democratic pickups to offset any Republican gains from Democratic retirements.

To win back the Senate, the GOP will need to win 11 seats. To get to that number, they would have to run the board of vulnerable Democrats and hold all of their open and vulnerable seats. That means winning North Dakota (which they will win with Dorgan retiring), Colorado, Delaware, Illinois, Arkansas, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Connecticut (which they won’t win now that Dodd is out) and New York. Those are all of the potentially vulnerable Democratic seats, and if you can’t add, that is only nine. The GOP will win a few of these. They have a great chance to win with Castle right here in Delaware, the best chance the state GOP has had at winning a Senate seat since old man Roth was alive and kicking. They should win in Nevada and Arkansas. But wins in Pennsylvania (against either Sestak or Specter), Illinois, Colorado and New York are longshots at best. And when you consider that the Democrats are poised to win the open seats in Ohio and Missouri, with outside shots of their own at winning in New Hampshire, Kentucky, and possibly Florida if Rubio wins the primary, we are once again looking at a net gain of nothing for the GOP in the Senate, just like in the House.

Thus, to win in 2010, the GOP will have to take out incumbents, which is hard to do even when you have a perfect storm of events that I have described above. You need money and the element of surprise. You need incumbents asleep at the wheel, thinking they are cruising to reelection, like the Democrats were in 1994. The element of surprise is not there this time. Democrats know the electoral climate is difficult this time and they are making moves to minimize any damage they could sustain. Like Lt. Govenor Cherry dropping out of the Governor’s race in Michigan, Governor Ritter dropping out in Colorado and Senator Dodd dropping out in Connecticut. In 1994, all three of these men would have run and lost. In 2010, they have all retired and dramatically improved the Democrats’ chances in all three races. Sure, we may still lose the Michigan governorship, but we now have very popular candidates in Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper and Attorney General Richard Blumenthal running in Colorado and Connecticut, which means both are likely to remain Democratic.

As far as the money goes, the GOP is losing that race. According to Hotline on Call, the Republican National Committee under Michael Steele has been hemorrhaging money — from $22.8 million in the bank at the beginning of the year to just $8.75 million on hand as of the end of November, the point through which the present reports are current. The Democratic National Committee holds a similar $8.3 million in the bank after debt. The DCCC holds a $13 million to $2 million cash-on-hand advantage over the NRCC.
The DSCC leads its counterpart, the NRSC, with $10.2 million to $7.3 million in available money. Thus, the Democratic campaign committees have a net $31.5 million in the bank, as compared with the $18.05 million held by the GOP committees, which is a 75% advantage for the Democrats.

The Democrats are ready this time and are well prepared. This will be no 1994 redux. Sure, the Democrats will lose seats as every party that has a President in the White House loses seats in off year elections, save for only two elections in 234 years (1998 and 2002). But a mere gain of 10 to 15 seats in the House and 2 to 3 in the Senate is not what the insane Republican base expects. They already expect majorities and repeal and impeachment. And they won’t get it. You wonder why Sen. Grassley and RNC Chairman Michael Steele have both recently said that the GOP won’t win back the Congress in 2010? Because they know how insane their voters are, and they know it is time to ratchet back their delusions.

Impatient for Beau

Beau Biden is enjoying his time home with his family, and tackling the AG’s office after a year away. Personally, I believe he will run and I believe the race, once underway, will not be close. But our 24 hour 7 days a week national media wanted their instant gratification yesterday.

Hotline On Call, the blog version of the National Journal, post the following with the headline “Where’s Beau Biden?”

DE AG Beau Biden may be the only chance Dems have to hang on to a Senate seat this year, and his silence on whether he will enter the race has become deafening.

Let me school Mr. Reid Wilson, the author of this post, on something. Delaware cares not about the schedule of political writers at the National Journal. I can tell you where Beau Biden is, he is home. With his family. He will announce sometime in January or February, after the holidays are over. I suspect he will wait until after the State of the Union, as Democrats will be riding a good news story in the press by them with the SOTU and the Healthcare Reform bill signing. Until then, of course there is silence. What else can he say except “No Comment.” For if he comments further on his intentions, that would be an announcement. And you want to save those kind of announcements until you got crowds surrounding you and a band behind you.

Indeed, look at the pained comments of staffers for various Democratic organizations. They know he is running but they can’t say it:

“He’s seriously thinking about it and hasn’t made a decision,” said Jason Miller, a spokesperson for the AG’s office. DE Dem spokesperson Katie Ellis added little to that vagueness: “What he’s said is pretty much what we know at this point,” she said.

“We fully hope and expect him to run,” says Eric Schultz, the DSCC’s communications director. He refused to discuss any recent conversations the DSCC has had with Biden or his allies.

The next part of the article deals with what Delaware Democrats would do if Biden sits this one out, painting it as an insurmountable task to defeat Castle without the last name Biden. Please. Matt Denn and Chris Coons can easily make this race just as Biden will, and they will do it by focusing on Castle’s right wing voting record. Given the tone of the article, you have to assume that someone at the DSCC is getting impatient, and off the record told Reid to write this story up to spur on Beau Biden.

Relax Beltway insiders. You will just have to wait.

Looking For Some Good News?

As a person who’s been held hostage and treated like cargo by the airlines, I’m thrilled with this new law.

Via Think Progress:

Responding to horror stories of stranded travelers, the Obama administration ordered airlines today to allow passengers to disembark from planes that have been stuck on the tarmac for more than three hours. With the move, the Obama administration is “sending an unequivocal message to airlines that it won’t tolerate” excessive delays:

Airlines will be required to provide food and water for passengers within two hours of a plane being delayed on a tarmac, and to maintain operable lavatories. They must also provide passengers with medical attention when necessary. […]

“Airline passengers have rights, and these new rules will require airlines to live up to their obligation to treat their customers fairly,” Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood said in a statement.

I’m lovin’ it.

The Castle Conundrum

So Beau Biden has taken the lead in his hypothetical matchup against false moderate Mike Castle (R-DE). It is what we all expected to happen much later in this race once the campaign began in earnest (i.e. once Beau announces that he is indeed running) and once Castle’s well guarded lap dog conservative voting record is revealed to the public. Now, the pollster responsible for yesterdays poll opines that perhaps Castle’s “no” vote on healthcare reform is the catalyst for Castle’s unprecedented 26 point collapse. Well, unless the pollster asked that questions I am not sure we have a basis to attribute the collapse to a specific reason, but it is as logical an explanation as any.

As we have always argued, Democrats have come home to Biden, the first legitimate challenger that Mike Castle has ever had in his 16 year congressional career. Castle’s string of election victories in this now heavily Democratic state has always been dependent on significant support from Democrats, for just winning Republicans in Delaware nets you only 30% of the vote. Thus, if a significant chunk of Democrats and Independents do not support him, Castle will never again win another election in this state in life. This poll makes clear that Biden is bringing the Castle Democrats home, and perhaps it is due to Castle’s votes against the stimulus package, for the Stupak amendment, and against healthcare reform.

And this poll is not an outlier, as the second most recent poll of the race pegged it as a statistical tie in the low forties. It would be one thing for Castle to have a 21 point lead two weeks ago and now be down by 5, for it would be easy to dismiss the new poll as an freakishly wrong outlier. But we have a trend here. The more people realize Castle has never been on their side throughout his looong career, the more they are unwilling to vote for him, shockingly enough.

Now, this places Castle in a big multi faceted conundrum. To win this race now, it is all the more probable that he will have to go negative on Beau Biden. But we Delawareans do not like nasty campaigns, and we punish the candidates who do engage in such races, as we did in 1996 against Janet Rzewnicki when she threw mud at Tom Carper. “The Delaware Way” is more than an incumbent protection racket, it is a way of doing business in this state. It is why lawyers always have to wear white shirts in court in Delaware. And it is why we conduct our elections civilly (at least at the candidate level). Thus, Castle cannot be seen to be going negative on Beau.

Now, that is easy enough. He can invite third party groups in to do the dirty work for him, like Club for Growth et al. But these third party conservative groups will only campaign for him if he is worthy of that support, due to the recent purging of party moderates in the NY-23 election (Hoffman) and what will happen shortly in the California and Florida primaries (DeVore and Rubio). Thus, Castle must continue to toe the party line in voting with the extreme conservative wing of his party and against the entirety of President Obama’s agenda. It will mean flip flopping on cap and trade (and he has already indicated he is now against his prior vote for cap and trade).

Castle has spent years, no, decades fashioning a false brand for himself: that of a independent moderate that works only for Delaware. And that branding has won him election after election in Delaware.

But Delaware Dem, you ask, why do you say it is a false brand?

Because now, when Castle needs to act independently the most, he is doing it the least. It is not good politics for blue state Republicans to vote like party hacks on key votes like healthcare reform and the stimulus package. And that is what Castle has done.

Does he really fear the whacko conservatives in this state? Does he fear Christine O’Donnell that much to destroy his brand? I doubt it. But he is acting like he HAS to vote right to win a contested primary.

And, as we have already seen, it will cost him in the general.

To win this election, Castle must now go negative, and he cannot if he wants to win the election. To win this election, Castle must be the moderate he has professed himself to be, and, for some reason, after all these years, he is acting like the conservative he is.

Did Dems Ever Do This to the Bush Twins?

Oh, wait, Dems weren’t allowed in the clubs’ VIP rooms when the Bushies were cavorting.

Anyways, here’s what happened at Sidwell Friends (where the Obama girls go to school) this morning.

I am sure that the Quaker school took this message from the Westboro Baptist Church directly to heart:

“Quakers?! Are you frigging kidding me? You pretend to be all non-violent, and you allow the most bloody, deceitful, evil, murderous bastard and his shemale sidekick to place their satanic spawn within your four walls?”

Oh, and Randall Terry is planning to stop by to protest soon.

Classy.

Only in Delaware

Those damn Capanos. Gerry Capano, the monster who shot a hole into Anne Marie Fahey’s ice chest coffin so it would sink, had a little domestic dispute this past week. Who represented him at court as a public defender? Ferris Wharton. Who was his judge? Jane Brady.

Seriously, there is an argument to be made that Delaware’s legal system is inherently unfair given the musical chair but same people involved nature of it. But what are you going to do? It’s Delaware.