2010: The Year They Go Even More Insane?

You gotta love the Republicans. And by Republicans, I am talking about their idiotic birther teabagger deather base, and not necessarily elected Republican officials (although certain elected officials like Palin and Bachmann certainly fit the former and the latter). They all, to the last man and woman, think they are going to win back Congress and then impeach President Obama and repeal health insurance reform this year. Just like Sarah Palin was going to save real Merikuns from socialism and defeat that un-American terrorist named Barack Hussein Obama. When that didn’t happen, and indeed, when Obama won the election in a relative landslide, these knuckle draggers went batshit crazy. Let’s review the past year.

First, they claimed that the President has not shown us his birth certificate, even though he and the Hawaiian government have; that he was born in Kenya instead of Hawaii based on some obviously (or obvious to anyone who can read English and has a fourth grade education) forged documents; and that even if he was born in Hawaii, Hawaii is not a state but rather some weird alien foreign world that you have to take a space shuttle to. Next, a number of whack job conservatives and racists started making death threats against the President, and some even started killing people (three police officers in Pittsburgh, an abortion doctor in Kansas, and a security guard at the Holocaust museum). Then, the Republican base got all revolutionary on our asses because they were all outraged! They said they outraged!!!!!! because the government was preventing us from going into a massive Depression that would rival the Great Depression in severity by passing the Stimulus bill, I guess because these Republicans enjoy economic depressions, since they always cause them (personally I think Republicans were outraged because a black man and/or a Democrat was President, but whatever). So they all proclaimed that they were holding tea bag parties across the land. The porn industry and BDSM enthusiasts got all excited. And during the health insurance reform debate, they got all hot and bothered by a lie from their leader about this supposed imaginary government death panels that would kill grandma, even though the insurance company death panel killed grandpa last year. As the year progressed, Republicans continued to ramp up their revolutionary rhetoric as if King George III himself had reanimated and taken over the Presidency and was taxing the Republicans without their being represented (even though the Republicans are represented in Washington and the largest middle class tax CUT was just passed).

The Republican ability to believe their lies and hyperbole and vitriol is unmatched. They created a lie and then go crazy over it. Literally. Such an ability points to a collective mental disorder, such as paranoid delusion. And now they believe they are going to win in 2010.

But the reality is they will not win in 2010, just like reality has belied all of their other histrionics over the past year. And the question is…. if the above is how they reacted over losing the White House in 2008 to a black man and/or a Democrat….. dear God, how will they react in 2011 when they fail to win the House and Senate?

The Republicans’ chances at winning back Congress are slim to none. In the House, the GOP now needs 40 seats to win a majority. In 1994, the GOP needed to win 42 seats to get back the majority, and it took a perfect storm of massive amounts of retirements of Democrats in the House and Senate, a dispirited Democratic base discouraged over the failure of Clinton’s healthcare reform proposal, and an energized GOP base, a proactive and unified GOP campaign (i.e. the Contract with America) that gave voters a reason to vote FOR the opposition party, and a lack of awareness by the Democrats that the perfect storm was even coming (as admitted by former President Clinton and a number of Democratic strategists).

Now, I will grant you that the Republican base is electrified by their own paranoia. But the Democratic base is not as dispirited as it was back then, even if we are not as happy as we were in 2008. And that is because we do know the stakes this time, which leads to the lack of another ingredient of the 1994 perfect storm: awareness. Democratic candidates, officeholders and voters are aware that they must bring the fight this time. Finally, another missing ingredient is the lack of Democratic retirements. In fact, more Republicans are retiring so far than Democrats, despite the recent news that “Democrats are dropping like flies.”

In the House, 10 Democrats are retiring, with DCCC Chair Chris Van Hollen saying he expects only a few more. That is well short of the 28 that retired in 1994 compared to the 14 Republicans that retired that year. That two to one advantage helped the GOP onto victory in 1994. But in 2010, odds are that the same number of Republicans and Democrats will be retiring, if not more Republicans.

And let’s look at the Democrats that are retiring. Kendrick Meek of Florida’s 17th CD is retiring to run for Senate, but his district is a safe Democratic seat. Neil Abercrombie of Hawaii’s 1st CD is retiring to run for Governor, but his seat is a safe Democratic seat. Artur Davis of Alabama’s 7th CD is also retiring to run for Governor, and his seat is a safe Democratic seat as well (and yes, there are safe Democratic seats in Alabama, especially when all African Americans in the state have been somehow gerrymandered into one district). So out of the retiring 10, 3 are guaranteed Democratic holds. Another 4 are likely Republican pickups, which are two seats in Tennessee (the 6th and the 8th), one in Kansas (the 3rd) and one in Louisiana (the 3rd). The remaining 3 are all pure tossups: the Pennsylvania 7th (Sestak’s Delco seat), the New Hampshire 2nd and the Washington 3rd. So let’s be generous and say that the GOP will pick up 7 of the 10 Democratic open seats. They will still need 33 more pickups to take back the House. And that is not counting their own open seats they will lose.

They will lose Castle’s seat here in Delaware to the Democrats. Hello Congressman Carney. They will lose the Illinois 10th (where Mark Kirk is leaving to run for the Senate as well). The Pennsylvania 6th (where Gerlach is leaving to run for Governor) is rated as leaning Democratic now, but a competitive race to be sure. And let’s not forget the Louisiana 2nd, where Joseph Cao was elected over that criminal who hide money in the freezer. Yeah, it is the most Democratic seat in Louisiana and Cao will be losing it no matter his vote for healthcare reform in the House. So there you have 3-4 Democratic pickups to offset any Republican gains from Democratic retirements.

To win back the Senate, the GOP will need to win 11 seats. To get to that number, they would have to run the board of vulnerable Democrats and hold all of their open and vulnerable seats. That means winning North Dakota (which they will win with Dorgan retiring), Colorado, Delaware, Illinois, Arkansas, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Connecticut (which they won’t win now that Dodd is out) and New York. Those are all of the potentially vulnerable Democratic seats, and if you can’t add, that is only nine. The GOP will win a few of these. They have a great chance to win with Castle right here in Delaware, the best chance the state GOP has had at winning a Senate seat since old man Roth was alive and kicking. They should win in Nevada and Arkansas. But wins in Pennsylvania (against either Sestak or Specter), Illinois, Colorado and New York are longshots at best. And when you consider that the Democrats are poised to win the open seats in Ohio and Missouri, with outside shots of their own at winning in New Hampshire, Kentucky, and possibly Florida if Rubio wins the primary, we are once again looking at a net gain of nothing for the GOP in the Senate, just like in the House.

Thus, to win in 2010, the GOP will have to take out incumbents, which is hard to do even when you have a perfect storm of events that I have described above. You need money and the element of surprise. You need incumbents asleep at the wheel, thinking they are cruising to reelection, like the Democrats were in 1994. The element of surprise is not there this time. Democrats know the electoral climate is difficult this time and they are making moves to minimize any damage they could sustain. Like Lt. Govenor Cherry dropping out of the Governor’s race in Michigan, Governor Ritter dropping out in Colorado and Senator Dodd dropping out in Connecticut. In 1994, all three of these men would have run and lost. In 2010, they have all retired and dramatically improved the Democrats’ chances in all three races. Sure, we may still lose the Michigan governorship, but we now have very popular candidates in Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper and Attorney General Richard Blumenthal running in Colorado and Connecticut, which means both are likely to remain Democratic.

As far as the money goes, the GOP is losing that race. According to Hotline on Call, the Republican National Committee under Michael Steele has been hemorrhaging money — from $22.8 million in the bank at the beginning of the year to just $8.75 million on hand as of the end of November, the point through which the present reports are current. The Democratic National Committee holds a similar $8.3 million in the bank after debt. The DCCC holds a $13 million to $2 million cash-on-hand advantage over the NRCC.
The DSCC leads its counterpart, the NRSC, with $10.2 million to $7.3 million in available money. Thus, the Democratic campaign committees have a net $31.5 million in the bank, as compared with the $18.05 million held by the GOP committees, which is a 75% advantage for the Democrats.

The Democrats are ready this time and are well prepared. This will be no 1994 redux. Sure, the Democrats will lose seats as every party that has a President in the White House loses seats in off year elections, save for only two elections in 234 years (1998 and 2002). But a mere gain of 10 to 15 seats in the House and 2 to 3 in the Senate is not what the insane Republican base expects. They already expect majorities and repeal and impeachment. And they won’t get it. You wonder why Sen. Grassley and RNC Chairman Michael Steele have both recently said that the GOP won’t win back the Congress in 2010? Because they know how insane their voters are, and they know it is time to ratchet back their delusions.