Rasmussen Gives Castle A Big Lead
A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely Delaware voters shows longtime GOP congressman Mike Castle leading New Castle County Executive Chris Coons 56% to 27%. Five percent (5%) prefer some other candidate, and 13% are undecided.
Rasmussen’s last poll of the race was in October, when Castle first announced. At that time Castle led Biden 47%-42%. It will be a tough race for Coons if he decides to run, but I think there is real opportunity for him:
While 86% of Republicans support Castle, just 49% of Delaware Democrats back Coons. Thirty-one percent (31%) of Democrats favor the moderate GOP candidate. Sixty-one percent (61%) of the state’s unaffiliated voters choose Castle at this point.
Twenty-nine percent (29%) of Delaware voters have a very favorable opinion of Castle, while just seven percent (7%) view him very unfavorably. Only nine percent (9%) have no opinion of the Republican hopeful who has served as governor and lieutenant governor and been the state’s only congressman since 1993.
Coons is viewed very favorably by 10% and very unfavorably by nine percent (9%). But 23% don’t know enough about Coons to venture even a soft favorable or unfavorable opinion of him.
Coons will need to boost his name recognition. Hopefully jumping in the Senate race will give him a boost. He’ll also need to win back these Democrats who like Castle. I think that if he is aggressive enough in tying Castle to the national GOP, he’ll be able to win.
Tags: Chris Coons, DE-Sen, Mike Castle
Well, Castle already has a million bucks to work with – how much does Chris have? And do you think that he’ll get ANY thing other than token $$ support from the DNC or Del Dems? Of course not, because Joe and Tom want their BFF Mikey to be the placeholder for Beau.
Thanks, Joe and Tom!
We can tell that A1 won’t peel off any of his Franklins for Coons.
No doubt it will be tough for Coons, but this is a strange year. There’s an anti-incumbent mood right now and it will be interesting to see if Coons can ride that wave. I think linking Castle with the still unpopular national Republicans is the way to go.
John, If I see the DNC and the National Dems throw enough big dollars this way to say that they’re serious, and if Joe Biden and Tom Carper do some serious campaigning for him, then I’ll chip in. Hey, I’d even do GOTV. But not if they National Dems don’t show that they’re as serious as the RNC.
But the DNC won’t because Joe and Tom love Mikey.
I think the DNC needs to see Coons raise his own money before they really jump in. They have a lot of seats to defend. I plan on sending a check when he announces.
“I think linking Castle with the still unpopular national Republicans is the way to go.”
That’s been the losing formula in NJ, Va. and Mass. Based on Delaware history, the way to beat Castle is to emphasize his age. The best way to do that is to run him ragged by making appearances everywhere, all the time, forcing him to greater physical activity. That’s what did in Roth. Of course, Castle doesn’t drink heavily, so too much activity might not have the same effect.
Then let’s see V.P. Biden start out with a few fund raisers for him to get some real money fast.
Geezer is only half right. Castle must be held to run as a national Republican, not the guy too old to keep pace at the Bottle & Cork.
The Va, Mass and NJ candidates never served in Congress, didn’t have an 18-year trove of votes to expose, no history of fealty to DeLay. Gingrich is a cliché to us but he’s still icky to the average voter, and was Castle’s mentor in Congress. Spivack drew blood tying MNC to the unpopular banner under which he runs. It’s not the only part of the campaign, but must be an important part.
Castle will run as a moderate. It is our job to show that he’s not, he’s just another Republican.
JM: That’s a fine formula if all you want to do is draw blood. Gingrich is a cliche to us, but ancient history to voters who aren’t dedicated followers of politics. It won’t drive up voter turnout, which will be the only way to beat Castle. Coakley lost because 830,000 people stayed home; Brown got essentially the same number of votes McCain did.
I agree, Gingrich is ancient history. The Republicans people know are George W. Bush and Sarah Palin.
“Castle will run as a moderate. It is our job to show that he’s not, he’s just another Republican.”
That’s the same thing as running against Bush. It won’t work. People are scared about what’s happening now, not what might happen if Republicans regain control. You have to get people to vote against Castle, not Republicans in general or Castle specifically just because he’s a Republican.
Frankly, unless Castle makes a mistake, he wins. It’s your job — or somebody’s — to create a climate where it’s easier to get him to make a mistake. Running hard is not something he’s ever had to do. Let’s see if he can learn a new trick at his age. I think it’s Coons’ only hope.
Republicans are part of what’s happening now.
I think you need to ask the questions:
Where was Mike Castle when the banks were taking excessive risk?
Why did Mike Castle enable this behavior?
Why do we think Mike Castle would do anything different in the Senate, if elected?
Castle voted against jobs, against women and for Wall Street fat cats. I think that is the message that needs to be sent.
Coons will probably run:
A1 – If I’m not mistaken, it doesn’t matter how much Coons has in his account – just like it wouldn’t have mattered for Beau – because you can’t shift $$$ from a state race to a federal. He’d have to start from scratch.
Where was Mike Castle when the banks were taking excessive risk?
Nobody is in a better position than Coons to call Castle out on his failure to oversee mortgages and banking. If Coons can’t connect the dots for voters he doesn’t deserve to run.
Anyone know anything about this guy?
Castle: “Coons raised taxes”
Coons: “Because you crashed the housing market and banking jobs, dummy.”
i don’t understand why there is even discussion about this. NO ONE is going to beat Castle. Any “good” politician won’t risk the drubbing. there will be a token Dem, Castle will win HUGE and Fixed will paint it as a “massive rejection of Obama by his VP’s home state”.
“Castle voted against jobs, against women and for Wall Street fat cats. I think that is the message that needs to be sent.”
Sure, send it. But that won’t get you the votes to win. People are not motivated right now to vote against the Republican agenda, and I don’t think any amount of scare talk will get them to. A much better route would be for Coons to come up with a good jobs program and to run on that.
a. price, Coons is a “good” politician who will risk the drubbing because he has actual skills and can be useful in appointed office, not merely elective. He probably won’t win, but he at least has a chance.
How about “Castle destroyed your JOB and your HOME VALUE.”
While the mortgage and banking crisis was forming, Castle was on the the House Financial Services Committee in charge of oversight. Castle’s lack of oversight is directly responsible for Delaware banking layoffs and cessation of home construction. If Coons can’t connect the dots…
UI – He’s cantankerous and critical. Also very smart. But not a guy you want to have at the top of the ticket, unless there’s absolutely no one else.
I am glad the poll numbers are low–Scott Brown’s were similar in September. As he starts campaigning they have room to really grow as Coons gets downstate and builds name recognition-he should focus on eastern Sussex and pockets of Kent and call Castle out- (Why does Castle attend all the stimulus events in state when he voted against it?) Chris is a great speaker and debater and has plenty of time to close the gap. He should carry Wilmington, and needs to have a strong ground game from the get go…
mike castle TOOK OUR JOBS…. HEE DOOK-ER-DERBS!
Nice South Park reference!
Castle always runs on “experience”.
Thanks, to his “experience”, Delaware has experienced the loss of both of our auto assembly plants.
Castle still has his job. How about you?
Coons must run against GOP agenda or he’ll be annihilated. Waiting for Castle to have a Chuck Terry moment is a plan for defeat. Must motivate base and give independents reason to reject Castle.
:Must motivate base and give independents reason to reject Castle.
When it comes to Castle, a lot of Democrats are effectively Independents.
It will take a lot of education on Coons’s part (or whoever) to explain to voters that the mortgage crisis and bank meltdown happened on Castle’s watch. Everybody knows someone who got laid off by a Delaware bank; it should be a slam dunk campaign issue. It is even a first-class retort to attacks on NCC tax increases.
Castle hasn’t contributed much to the cleanup except to promote some education seminars on how to beg the bank not to take your house.
Coons must run against GOP agenda or he’ll be annihilated.
There is no Republican agenda. And since the name of the repub game these days is party unity — not governing the United States of America — it seems the question is why send someone to DC who won’t lift a finger to help fix what he helped to break? Why send someone to DC who will tell you know that he won’t do a damn thing to get things fixed? Why send someone to DC who will just treat it as early PAID retirement?
edit — which is not an endorsement of Coons just yet (because I’m not going to be surprised if he sits this out).
Good point Cass-If MC is already making references that “this will be the feather in his cap” so to speak, then the constituency has nothing to be up in arms about when business as usual continues in Washington. I am eager to hear Chris’s platform and am ignoring the talking heads, polls, and naysayers(mainly the troglodytes on NJ chats).
Castle was NEVER a moderate, a master illusion. Coons will loose big when facts are revealed about him. The peter principle at work in Dealaware again. Get behind a progressive at least! Who knows how Coons would vote on issues important to working families.
When GM announced it was closing, Castle didnt even know about it. Name one thing the guy did for Dealaware? Just one!
with every passing day, pushing Jason toward a massive coronary event?
win for the elephant.